The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Indianapolis Motor Speedway this week. The race Sunday will not be like the race in Indianapolis last year. The Cup Series competed on the Indy Road Course from 2021 – 2023. Now we get to see what the Gen-7 car can do on the traditional track in Indianapolis. The race last week at Pocono was pretty good, so I expect the same at Indianapolis. The Brickyard 400 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. on NBC.
* NASCAR will take a break from July 22nd – August 10th for the Olympics. I will also be taking a break. I will not be as active on Social Media or the Forum, but I will post an abbreviated DFS Golf article for the 3M Championship next week and a full DFS Golf article for the Olympic Golf Tournament. Enjoy the race this weekend and enjoy the time off from an exciting 2024 NASCAR season.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had a 50-minute practice session Friday to dial in their cars for Sunday’s race. Indianapolis is a 2.5-mile, rectangular-shaped, flat track. Most of the drivers were able to make some long runs in practice so we can combine that data with the stats from the race last week at Pocono to help predict which drivers will run up front Sunday.
Here are the practice speeds for the Brickyard 400…
CUP SERIES STATS AT INDIANAPOLIS
The Cup Series has not raced on the traditional track at Indianapolis Motor Speedway since 2020. A lot has changed since that race. Those races were dominated by Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch. Harvick is retired, Busch is not the same driver since he left Joe Gibbs Racing and Truex is not the same driver without Cole Pearn on top of the pit box. The Cup Series also has a completely different car with completely different tires. We are going to have to focus our picks this week on what happened last week at Pocono and the races on the large intermediate tracks this year.
Here are the stats from the large intermediate track races this year, sorted by Driver Rating…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 160 laps (400 miles). That means there are 112 dominator points up for grabs. The dominator points were spread out last week at Pocono and I expect the same Sunday at Indianapolis. The main dominator should lead roughly 58 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (27.1 dominator points). The second dominator leads 32 laps and scores 22 fastest laps (17.9). The third dominator leads 24 laps and scores 22 fastest laps (15.9 dominator points). The final dominator leads 22 laps and scores 8 fastest laps (9.1 dominator points). I will pay up for the drivers I think can score the dominator points Sunday. The key to finishing at the top of your DFS Contest has been to have three and maybe all four dominators in your lineup.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Kyle Larson
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Josh Berry, Austin Cindric, Carson Hocevar, Erik Jones and Justin Haley
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($9,300): Keselowski looked really good last week at Pocono. He qualified seventh for the race, led 20 laps, Score Stage Points in both Stages and finished seventh in the race. Keselowski won at the Brickyard in 2018. Keselowski posted the seventh-fastest speed in practice with the fourth-fastest long run speed. Keselowski overdrove the car in qualifying, so now the No. 6 car will start 26th. Keselowski should score a lot of place differential points and be a safe driver for your Cash Contest lineup.
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,000): Jeff Gordon won the Brickyard 400 in 1994, 2004 and 2014. Can the No. 24 car win again in 2024? I think so. Byron has been good on these large, flat tracks. He posted the ninth-fastest speed in practice and qualified fourth for the race. I use Byron as one of my dominators in the Cash Contest lineup Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK ($8,800): Reddick has the fastest car this weekend. Reddick went out and posted the fastest lap in practice with the fastest long-run speed. Reddick wasn’t done dominating the field. The No. 45 car went out and won the pole for the race. Reddick should lead a lot of laps from the pole. He is a good pick for only $8,800.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,500): Who do you trust the most in this spot…. Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain or Chris Buescher? I trust the No. 17 team and it isn’t even close. Buescher had some speed last week. He posted 10th-fastest green flag average speed and had the seventh-best driver rating at Pocono. The RFK Racing teams are good at using pit strategy to gain track position. I expect the No. 17 car to steal some track position Sunday and finish in the top-10 at the Brickyard.
AUSTIN CINDRIC ($7,600): The No. 2 car had some speed Friday in practice. Cindric posted the 15th-fastest speed and Cindric had the fifth-fastest long-run speed. Cindric overdrove the car and scraped the wall in qualifying. Now Cindric will start last with his fast car. He should be a good pick to score 15-20 place differential points Sunday.
CARSON HOCEVAR ($6,800): Hocevar had a good race last week at Pocono when he finished 17th. The No. 77 team brought some speed to the Brickyard. Hocevar posted the 10th-fastest speed in practice with the eighth-fastest long run speed. Hocevar got loose in qualifying, so now he will start 30th Sunday. Hocevar has a good chance to move up 10 spots Sunday and score well for you Cash Contest lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
The Toyota’s of TYLER REDDICK and DENNY HAMLIN are going to be highly owned. I will have these two drivers in some lineups, but I will be pivoting to the Hendrick Motorsports cars. KYLE LARSON (will also be highly owned), CHASE ELLIOTT and WILLIAM BYRON have cars that a nearly as fast.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,700): The No. 9 car had a lot of speed last week, but Elliott could never get the track position he needed to win the race. Elliott had the sixth-fastest green flag speed at Pocono, the fifth-best driver rating and the second-most green flag passes in the race. Elliott posted the 12th-fastest speed in practice and he qualified third for the race. Elliott has a great chance to be one of the dominators Sunday with the upside to go to Victory Lane.
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,000): It makes me nervous to use Byron in both lineups, but Willy-B is not the type of driver to make dumb mistakes in the race, so I will trust the No. 24 team. Bryron should be the lowest owned from the group of Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. If this is true, Byron has a lot of value Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,200): Bowman is on a hot streak right now. He won the Chicago Street Course race and finished third last week at Pocono. Bowman looks fast again this weekend. The No. 48 car posted the fifth-fastest speed in practice and qualified 13th for the race. Bowman has a good chance to score some place differential points and lead some laps at Indianapolis.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,800): Wallace passed 76 cars in the race and he had no problem racing into the top-10 from the back of the field. The No. 23 car has some speed this week too. Wallace posted the 11th-fastest speed in practice. Wallace did not push the car hard enough in qualifying, so now he will start 17th Sunday. Wallace will get a chance to pass a lot of cars again Sunday.
AUSTIN CINDRIC ($7,600): I do not mind playing Cindric in the Cash and Tournament Contests lineups because there is almost no risk in playing the No. 2 car Sunday. Cindric starts last, so there is nowhere to go but forward in the race.
JOSH BERRY ($7,500): Rodney Childers told NBC Sports, “We are starting to get Berry a car that can run well at the tracks where we had success with Kevin (Harvick) in the car.” Harvick won the last two races at the Brickyard and he was the top dominator in both races. Berry starts 37th, so he does not need to be as good as Harvick at the Brickyard. He only needs to finish in the top-25 to have some serious value Sunday. I think Berry will do better than that.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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