The NASCAR Cup Series is back after three weeks off for the Olympics. The teams had three weeks to find some speed, but I am not so sure all of that time was spent on the Richmond aero-package. There are four races left in the regular season. They are all totally different (short-track package at Richmond, Intermediate packages at Michigan and Darlington and the Superspeedway package at Daytona). There have been six races (including the All-Star Race) on the short, flat tracks. The drivers who dominated those races should run up front at Richmond. The Cook Out 400 can be seen Sunday at 6:30 p.m. on USA Network.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had a 45-minute practice session Saturday to test out a new softer tire to improve the short track racing. The practice was a complete mess. Some teams were on the “option tires” and others were on the “primary tires.” Some drivers decided to put the faster tires (Option Tires) on when the sun was out and it skewed their lap times. I think we will learn more from qualifying, since all of the drivers were on the same tire. I will still post the practice speeds from Saturday’s bizarre session.
Here are the practice speeds for the Cook Out 400…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday night is scheduled for 400 laps (300 miles). That means there are 100 points for leading laps and 200 points for fastest laps up for grabs in this race (300 dominator points). The races in the Gen-7 car at Richmond have been three dominator races. The main dominator leads roughly 200 laps and scores 44 fastest laps (69.8 dominator points). The second dominator leads roughly 140 laps and scores 44 fastest laps (54.8 dominator points). The third dominator leads roughly 40 laps and scores 36 fastest laps (35.2 dominator points). We need to have the top-two dominators in our lineup if we want to win our contest this week. I plan to pay up for the two drivers I think can lead the most laps and pair them with drivers who can score some place differential points at a cheap price.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, Michael McDowell, Erik Jones and Justin Haley
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
* I want to make sure I score as many dominator points as possible. I am not sure which driver from Joe Gibbs Racing will lead the most laps, so I will just play all three of them. I expect either Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. or Christopher Bell to lead the most laps and another one of these drivers to lead the second-most laps;
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,700): Hamlin has been a beast at Richmond in the Gen-7 car. He won the race in 2022 and he went to Victory Lane again this year at his home track. Hamlin looks fast again this weekend. The No. 11 car posted the 11th-fastest speed in practice and then Hamlin shocked everyone and won the pole. Hamlin has only averaged 27 laps led at Richmond in the Gen-7 car, but he typically does not start from the pole. I expect the No. 11 car to have a great chance to be the top dominator with the No. 1 pit stall Sunday night.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,300): Bell has been the best driver this year on the short, flat tracks. He won the races at Phoenix and New Hampshire and he finished sixth in the race at Richmond in March. Bell posted the third-fastest speed in practice and qualified fifth for the race. I would not be surprised to see Bell led a lot of laps and added another win to his 2024 resume Sunday night.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10,100): The Cup Series has completed 22 races and Truex has yet to find Victory Lane. That could change Sunday night. Truex lead 228 laps, scored 17 Stage Points and finished fourth at Richmond in March. His average finishing position at Richmond since joining Joe Gibbs Racing is 4.3. Truex has a good chance to be one of the top dominators and score well for your DFS lineup at Richmond.
CHASE BRISCOE ($6,900): Briscoe has been at his best on the short, flat tracks this year. He finished ninth at Phoenix, 10th at Martinsville and second at New Hampshire. Briscoe posted the seventh-fastest speed in practice and qualified seventh for the race. Briscoe sits 18th in the Point Standings and only 16 drivers make the playoffs. I expect this team to gamble to try and steal a win Sunday night. I am willing to gamble too with Briscoe in my lineup.
ERIK JONES ($6,200): Richmond is a good track for Toyota, so it only makes sense to have Jones in your lineup Sunday night. Legacy Motor Club has not had as much speed as the other Toyota’s this year, but it looks like the three-week break helped them catch up. Jones posted the 16th– astest speed in practice and the No. 43 car qualified 27th for the race. Jones started 27th and finished 14th at Richmond in March. He will be a great pick if he can do that again.
JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($5,400): I have not played Nemechek much this year, but I will take a chance with the No. 42 car Sunday night. Richmond is a great track for Toyota. Nemechek finished 25th at Richmond in March. I just need him to finish in the top-25 and score a few place differential points in this race.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,300): Denny Hamlin is going to be the highest owned driver, so I will pivot to Bell. He has been better than Hamlin on the short, flat tracks this year and he was faster than Hamlin in qualifying. I am not worried that Bell will be without his crew chief. They said Adam Stevens will have radio communications with the team Sunday night.
JOE LOGANO ($9,100): Richmond has been one of the best tracks for Logano. He finished second at Richmond in March and his average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at this track is 3.8. Logano was one of the drivers who put his “option tires” on late in practice when the sun was making the track slick. His car has more speed than what it looks like on the speed chart. Richmond is one of the best tracks for Logano, so I will take a chance with the No. 22 car Sunday night.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,900): Buescher currently sits 15th in the Playoff Standings. He really needs a win to take the pressure off in these final four races. Buescher won this race last year and he looks fast again this weekend. Buescher posted the seventh-fastest speed in practice and qualified seventh for the race. Buescher came out of nowhere to dominate this race last year on his way to Victory Lane. I will take a chance with the No. 17 car and hope Buescher can do it again.
JOSH BERRY ($7,800): Berry and Crew Chief Rodney Childers will not be together next year, but I do not think this team is ready to give up (that will happen once they are eliminated from the playoffs). Childers was really good at giving Kevin Harvick a fast car at Richmond and it looks like he did the same with Berry this weekend. The No. 4 car looked like it had the fastest speed in qualifying, but Berry had an extra lap on his tires. This is a crew chief’s race so I will trust Childers Sunday night. Berry could be a cheap dominator for your lineup.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,600): The Toyota’s have been really good at Richmond, so I will take a chance with Wallace Sunday night. Wallace finished three of the last four races at Richmond in the top-13, so this has been a pretty good track for him. Wallace posted the second-fastest speed in practice and qualified eighth for the race. I expect the No. 23 team to gamble with the softer tire to steal some track position and possibly lead some laps.
CARSON HOCEVAR ($6,300): I doubt many people will play Hocevar from the 19th starting position, but he could be a sneaky good pick Sunday night. Hocevar posted the sixth-fastest speed in practice and Steve Letart said, “Hocevar could be a good pick this week.” I usually do not agree with everything Letart says, but I think he is right with Hocevar. I will take a chance with the young driver.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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