The NASCAR Cup Series travels to Michigan this week for the only race at a two-mile oval track. The two races in the Gen-7 car at Michigan have been fun to watch, but they have been tough to predict. There are a lot of lead changes and a lot of movement in the field. That means your DFS lineup will go from winning to losing during the race. We just need to hope the lineups trend towards winning when the checkered flag is waived Sunday. The FireKeepers Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. on USA Network.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The practice session Saturday was a mess. First, it was scheduled to be two groups on the track for 20-minutes. Then NASCAR changed it to one group for 40-minutes because of the threat of rain in the area. The cars finally got on the track for four minutes before it started to mist. Finally, the cars got back on the track with 25-minutes left in practice. The drivers got about 15-minutes of practice before the mist returned and the red flag was waived. We did get enough practice time to see which drivers had single-lap speed and five-lap average speed. I am just not sure we learned much with all of the start and stopping in practice.
*Qualifying was canceled because of rain.
Here are the practice speeds for the FireKeepers Casino 400…
CUP SERIES STATS AT MICHIGAN
Michigan is considered an intermediate track but it is a lot faster than the 1.5-mile “cookie cutter” tracks. The best way to handicap the race Sunday is to look at which drivers have had speed on the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks this year. Those races include Las Vegas, Texas, Kansas and Charlotte. We can add that data to the stats from the two races in the Gen-7 car at Michigan to figure out who should run up front in the FireKeepers Casino 400…
Here are the stats from the four races on the intermediate tracks this year and the two races in the Gen-7 car at Michigan, sorted by DraftKings Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday night is scheduled for 200 laps (400 miles). That means there are 50 points for leading laps and 90 points for fastest laps up for grabs in this race (140 dominator points). The dominators points at Michigan get spread out almost as much as a Superspeedway track. There were 15 lead changes, with 10 drivers leading laps in 2022. Kevin Harvick led the most laps with only 38 in the race. There were 26 lead changes last year, with 16 drivers leading laps. Chris Buescher’s 52 laps led were the most in the race.
This should be a good race to build a more balanced lineup with the drivers from the $9K price range. There is a good chance that four or five drivers will lead over 25 laps in the race Sunday. You will score very well if you are able to have these four drivers in your lineup at Michigan.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron and Ross Chastain
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Martin Truex Jr., Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, Erik Jones, A.J. Allmendinger and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($10,700): Larson has been a beast on the larger tracks where the intermediate track aero package has been used. He just won at Indianapolis and he has wins this year at Las Vegas and Kansas. He is also good at Michigan. Larson finished 7th in the Gen-7 car at Michigan in 2022 and he finished 5th at the track last year. Larson should have a good chance to finish up front Sunday.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10,000): Truex has been one of the best drivers at Michigan in the Gen-7 car. He finished 6th at Michigan in 2022 and he finished 2nd in the race last year. The No. 19 car has also been fast in the races where the intermediate track aero package has been used. Truex finished 7th at Las Vegas and 4th at Kansas. He posted the 2nd-fastest speed in practice, but Truex will start 24th, since he engine blew up last week. Truex has a great chance to score the most place differential points and a lot of dominator points Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,600): Buescher won the race at Michigan last year. Can he do it again? Buescher posted the 9th-fastest speed in practice. That is about where he practiced last year when he won the race. Buescher is currently at the cut line to make the playoffs. At least we know the No. 17 team will be aggressive with their pit strategy to get as many points as possible at Michigan. That is good news for our DFS lineup.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,100): We have seen Chastain use the “Hail Mellon” to secure a spot in the playoffs. Could we see Chastain throw a “Hail Mary” to secure a spot this year? Chastain is a dangerous driver when he is desperate. He said after the race at Richmond, “I would have done the same thing (as Austin Dillon) to win the race.” Yeah, we know Ross…. The No. 1 car has been at its best on the large intermediate tracks and Chastain posted the fastest speed in practice. He has a good chance to score some dominator points for only $8,100 Sunday.
ERIK JONES ($6,700): The race at Michigan is a home game for Jones. He finished 8th at Michigan in the Gen-7 car in 2022 and he finished 10th in the race last year. He has been decent on the intermediate tracks this season. Jones finished 14th at Las Vegas and 19th at Texas and Charlotte. We saw Austin Dillon come out of nowhere to win a race last week. Could Jones do the same Sunday? It would not surprise me.
AJ ALLMENDINGER ($5,600): Allmendinger will be back behind the wheel of the No. 16 car for Kaulig Racing Sunday. It was also announced that Allmendinger will drive this car full-time next year. That has to give him some motivation this week. Allmendinger posted the 10th-fastest speed in practice and he starts 35th. He should be a lock for all Cash Contest lineups at Michigan.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,300): Elliott has been the most consistent driver on the large intermediate tracks this year. He won the race at Texas, finished 3rd at Kansas and 7th at Charlotte. The No. 9 car has speed again this weekend. Elliott posted the 6th-fastest speed in practice and he starts 6th in the race. Elliott has the upside to be a dominator and he is a safe pick for a top-10 finish (with top-five upside).
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,100): Byron has not been great at Michigan in the Gen-7 car, but his Hendrick Motorsports car should be fast enough to finish in the top-10 Sunday. Byron finished 12th at Michigan in 2022 and he had a tire go down in the race last year. The No. 24 car posted the 4th-fastest speed in practice and he starts 9th in the race. Byron got off to a hot start in 2024 and he needs to build some momentum entering the playoffs. I would not be surprised if it started with a solid run at Michigan.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($9,000): This is a home game for Keselowski. He has often said that winning at his home track in Michigan would be as big as winning the Daytona 500. It is hard to believe that Keselowski has never been to Victory Lane in Michigan, but that doesn’t mean he is a bad pick this week. Keselowski started 12th, led 15 laps and finished 4th in this race last year. He also has the second-best average finishing position on the intermediate tracks this year with his win at Darlington and second-place finishes at Texas and Charlotte. This is a good race to have Keselowski in your lineup.
TY GIBBS ($8,400): I have not had much luck using Gibbs this year, but he has been at his best on the large, high-speed tracks this year. Gibbs finished 5th at Las Vegas, 13th at Texas and 6th at Charlotte (He also won the pole for that race). Gibbs has also been decent at Michigan in the Gen-7 car. He finished 10th at Michigan in 2022 and 11th last year. The No. 54 car needs a lot of points or a win in order to make the playoffs. His team will be very aggressive with their pit strategy to get Gibbs to the front Sunday.
BUBBA WALLACE ($8,300): Wallace is 3 points above Chris Buescher in the cut-off for the playoffs and he desperately needs a win or a big point’s day in order to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. Wallace nearly won at Michigan in 2022 in the Gen-7 car. He won the pole, led 22 laps and finished 2nd. I will gladly take a race like that from Wallace Sunday.
AJ ALLMENDINGER ($5,600): I know Allmendinger is going to have some ownership this week, but I will eat the chalk with the No. 16 car. I just cannot fade a driver who had top-10 speed in practice, a history of running well at the track, has a practice race to get his rhythm down (Xfinity Race) and he starts almost dead-last.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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