The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to Daytona International Speedway this week. This race used to be the final race of the regular season, but Darlington gets that spot of the schedule this year. That does not mean this race will be any tamer than it has been since it was moved to from the 4th of July weekend to the end August during the 2020 season. We can still expect a wild finish and we will still need a lot of luck with our lineups at Daytona. The Coke Zero 400 can be seen Saturday at 7:30 p.m. on NBC.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
NASCAR eliminated practice at the Superspeedway tracks. The teams lined up for qualifying Friday evening and then they will race Saturday night without any time to shake down their cars. Hopefully our drivers can start the race without any gremlins in the car.
CUP SERIES STATS AT DAYTONA
The best way to handicap this race is to look at how the drivers performed in the other races on the Superspeedway tracks. I looked at the last five races at Daytona and combined that data with the two other races on the Superspeedways this year (Atlanta and Talladega). The drivers who score well in those races will have the best chance to score well Saturday night.
Here are the stats from the last five races at Daytona and the two other Superspeedway races this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
* As you can see, there are some names that you would not expect at the top of the list. Do not get too concerned with the driver’s name over the door. The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points will likely win you your contest Saturday night.
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
I have had a lot of success with my DFS picks at the Superspeedways. One of the ways I select my team is by looking at the winning lineups from the previous races at Daytona. Here is the winning lineup from the Daytona 500 this year…
None of the drivers in the lineup started in the top-15. Five of the six drivers started outside the top-24. A lot of “Fantasy Experts” preach to fade the highest owned drivers who start in the back. Kyle Busch was the highest owned driver in the race and he was in the winning lineup. Do not get too carried away with ownership this week. William Byron, Bubba Wallace, AJ Allmendinger and Corey Lajoie entered the Daytona 500 with really good stats on the Superspeedways. They had higher than average ownership and still found their way into the winning lineup. The bottom line is… We want the best drivers who start in the back. Let our competitors try to get cut and beat us with B.J. McLoed and Joey Gase.
Do not worry about dominator points at Daytona. The laps led get spread out between 15-18 drivers and the fastest laps are scored by the drivers running in the middle of the pack. You need to focus on place differential points Saturday night.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, Erik Jones, Corey LaJoie, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., John H. Nemechek, Justin Haley and Daniel Hemric
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
BUUBA WALLACE ($9,000): Wallace could really use a win to take the pressure off of him next week at Darlington. He just may get it. Wallace has the best average finishing position at Daytona in the Gen-7 car (from the drivers with more than one start). Wallace led 3 laps, scored 7 Stage Points and finished 5th in the Daytona 500. He also won at Talladega in 2021 and he has three 2nd-place finishes at Daytona (2018, 2021 and 2022). I am sure Wallace will get a lot of help from Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick in this race. That should make the No. 23 car one of the best picks Saturday night.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($8,400): Bell has never won at appoints paying race at Daytona but he did win his Duel Race last February. He also finished 3rd in the Daytona 500 and 3rd in the Daytona 500 last year. He is a good pick to score some place differential points from the 27th starting position Saturday night.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,200): Chastain nearly won the Daytona 500 in February. He was leading the race with five laps to go, but was involved in a wreck with Chris Buescher. Chastain also won at Talladega in the Gen-7 car in 2022. I would not be surprised if Chastain is smashing a watermelon in Victory Lane at Daytona.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,000): Bowman has the best average finishing position in the Gen-7 car on the Superspeedways. He finished 5th in this race last year and Bowman finished 2nd in the Daytona 500 this year. He also finished 5th at Talladega this year. That is a lot of top-five finishes. The stats say to play Bowman at Daytona so I will listen to them and use the No. 48 car in my DFS lineup Saturday night.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($7,900): This pick scares me, but there is little risk in using Stenhouse from the 35th starting position Saturday night. He is a “boom or bust” driver on the Superspeedways. He won the Daytona 500 last year and he finished 4th at Talladega this year. Stenhouse started outside the top-30 in both of those races, so he can win from the 35th-starting position this week.
COREY LAJOIE ($6,300): LaJoie is one of my favorite picks this week. He said on his podcast this week that he has nothing to lose Saturday night since he does not have a ride for the 2025 season. He is going for the win. He finished 3 of the last 4 Superspeedway races in the top-10. LaJoie will be one of the best picks in DFS if he finishes in the top-10 Saturday night.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
BUBBA WALLACE ($9,000), TYLER REDDICK ($8,600), CHRISTOPHER BELL ($8,400), ERIK JONES ($7,000): The trend in the Superspeedway races locks like it is about to play out again Saturday night. The Fords dominate qualifying and the Toyota’s and Chevy’s dominate the race. I will stack the Toyota’s of Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and Erik Jones. I will fade Denny Hamlin since his ownership will be high and his results at Daytona have not been great lately. Wallace has the best average finishing position at Daytona in the Gen-7 car, Reddick just won at Talladega in April, Bell finished the last two races at Daytona in the top-three and Jones starts dead last Saturday night. The No. 43 car looked like junk in qualifying, but the team will fix it since the penalty is that they have to start in the back and they are already back their.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,000): Bowman is one of the highest ranked drivers in my model and I agree with it. Bowman has been the most consistent driver in the Gen-7 car on the Superspeedways. He should score well in the race at Daytona.
DANIEL HEMRIC ($5,300): No one is going to play Hemric Saturday night and that could be a mistake. He started 37th and finished 16th in the Daytona 500. Hemric also started 19th and finished 9th at Talaldega. Hemric will be the best “punt play” in the field if he simply does what he did in the first two Superspeedway races this year.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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