The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to Darlington Raceway for the final race of the regular season. This spot on the calendar used to belong to Daytona, but NASCAR wanted to put the drivers in one of the most difficult situations in order to make the playoffs. Drivers “must” race the racetrack and not the competition at Darlington. Overdriving the car in order to make a pass typically sends the driver into the wall for a “Darlington Stripe.” It will be hard for the drivers to focus on the track with the points being so important this weekend. The races at Darlington are always good, but I would not be surprised if people are not talking about this race for a long time. The Southern 500 can be seen Sunday at 6 p.m. on USA Network.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal practice session Saturday afternoon for Sunday night’s race. The teams had 20-minutes and two sets of tires to dial in their cars for the race. Tire fall-off is huge at Darlington, so many of the teams made a long run to see if their car could maintain speed. It will be more important to look at the 10-lap average speed this weekend when you try to find drivers for your DFS lineups.
Here are the practice speeds for the Southern 500 …
CUP SERIES STATS AT DARLINGTON
Darlington is a unique track. They do not call it “The Track Too Tough to Tame” for nothing. The egg-shaped, 1.366-mile track has a surface that eats tires quickly. The drivers are required to search the track for grip and run up against the wall once the rubber is worn down. The drivers who can run consecutive laps against the wall without getting too many “Darlington Stripes” usually finish up front.
It is tough to compare any track on the schedule to Darlington, so I will use the stats from the previous races at “The Track Too Tough to Tame” to handicap this race. There are a group of drivers who are good at searching the track for grip and running up against the wall. These are the drivers we will want in order lineups Sunday night.
Here are the stats from the last five races at Darlington (Gen-7 car), sorted by DraftKings Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday night is scheduled for 367 laps (500 miles). That is 74 laps more than what we had in May at Darlington. There are 256.9 dominators points up for grabs at Darlington and we need to score as many of them as possible.
The trend in the Southern 500 during the Gen-7 car era is for this to be a four dominator race. The main dominator leads roughly 170 laps and scores 46 fastest laps (63.2 dominator points). The second dominator leads roughly 100 laps and scores 30 fastest laps (38.5 dominator points). The third dominator leads roughly 50 laps and scores 30 fastest laps (26 dominator points) and the fourth dominator leads roughly 40 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (22.6 dominator points). We must have the top-two dominators and one other dominator in our lineup in order to take down a large Tournament Contest Sunday night. I plan to play a “stars and scrubs” lineup for the Southern 500 this weekend.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Blaney
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Noah Gragson, Erik Jones, Todd Gilliland, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Ryan Preece
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
TYLER REDDICK ($10,500): Reddick was a beat at Darlington in May. He won the pole, led 174 laps, scored 17 Stage Points and was wrecked with five laps to go. Reddick needs a solid race in order to win the regular season title. Reddick had enough speed in practice to get to the front Sunday night and lead some laps. The No. 45 car has a great chance to win the Southern 500 and secure the regular season championsip.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,200): Byron probably is not the first driver that comes to mind when you think of the races at Darlington, but he should be. He has been the most consistent driver at Darlington in the Gen-7 car. Byron finished 6th, 4th, 1st and 8th in the last four races at the track. He has also led laps in four of the last five races and scored the most Stage Points in the Gen-7 car at Darlington. Byron is starting to heat up again after his summer slump. It would be a good idea to get the No. 24 car into your DFS lineups this weekend.
KYLE BUSCH ($7,800): Can we finally start to trust Busch? He finished 12th at Richmond and 4th at Michigan, so the No. 8 car is starting to find some speed. Busch did not hve a lot of speed in practice but he NBC Sports, “I was just too tight, but we are close. We should be able to get it pretty close to what we need for the race.” Busch finished 11th in the Southern 500 last year. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-10 Sunday night and score some place differential points.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,700): Wallace has been one of the best drivers in the Gen-7 car at Darlington. Wallace finished 7th, 7th, 5th and 9th in his last four races at Darlington. That is third-best in the Cup Series. The No. 23 car looks fast again this weekend. Wallace posted some fast laps in practice and won the pole for the race. Wallace should have a good chance to be one of the top dominators in the Southern 500.
NOAH GRAGSON ($7,000): Gragson was pretty good at Darlington in May and this track was one of his best in the Xfinity Series. The No. 10 car looks decent again this weekend. Gragson posted the third-fastest long-run speed in practice and he qualified 29th for the race. He should score a lot of place differential points Sunday night.
TODD GILLILAND ($6,800): Gilliland had a good race at Darlington in May. He started 15th and finished 15th. There is a decent chance that he will be good again Sunday night. At least we know the No. 38 team will be aggressive with their pit strategy to steal some track position to try and win the race. That is what they did in May and there is no reason to change their strategy this week. I will roll the dice with Gilliland as a “punt play” from the 33rd starting position.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): So which version of Denny Hamlin are we going to get Sunday night? Are we going to get the Hamlin that lead 177 laps at Darlington last year or the Hamlin that led one lap at Darlington in May. We need the No. 11 car to lead a lot of laps if we are going to pay up for Hamlin. He looked fast in practice, so I will play Hamlin and hope the 2023 version of the No. 11 car shows up in the Southern 500.
KYLE LARSON ($10,700): I will pay up for the No. 5 car as one of my dominators Sunday night. Larson is the best driver in the field at running the wall at Darlington. He had the fastest car at Darlington in May, but got a flat tire and hit the wall. The No. 5 car looks fast again this weekend. Larson has led laps in four of the five races at Darlington in the Gen-7 car. He should lead some more Sunday night.
RYAN BLANEY ($8,800): Baney has been a master on the short, flat tracks this year, but the No. 22 team for some speed for the Southern 500. Blnaey has by far the fastest car on the long runs. Blaney will have a good chance to lead some laps and win the race if we have some long green flag runs Sunday night.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,700): Playing Wallace in both lineups is like messing with fire. I will do it, since Darlington has been one of the best tracks for Wallace. I also cannot give up the chance to get one of the top dominators for under $8K Sunday night.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($6,200): Stenhouse should be one of the better “punt plays” for your DFS lineup Sunday night. He has finished four or his last six races at Darlington in the top-17. That is not great, but it is good enough when Stenhouse starts almost dead last in the race. His car was third-fast in his group before Stenhouse hit the wall. They will fix up the car and Stenhouse should score some place differential points Sunday night.
RYAN PREECE ($5,600): I wasn’t expecting to use Preece at Darlington, but it is tough to ignore the speed that the No. 41 car has. Preece posted the fourth-fastest speed on the 10-lap average speed chart and the third-fastest speed on the 15-lap average speed chart (in his group). Preece started 26th and finished 17th in May at Darlington. He will be one of the best “punt plays” in the field if he can finish inside the top-20 from the 30th starting position. I think he can do it.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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