The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Kansas Speedway this weekend to start the second-round of their playoffs. The intensity of the races is always turned up a notch in the playoffs and it often creates some exciting finishes. It is going to be tough to beat the finish we had at Kansas in May. Kyle Larson beat Chris Buescher in the closest finish in NASCAR history. It is going to be fun to see what happens this weekend in the Heartland. The Hollywood Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. on USA Network.
CUP SERIES PLAYOFF STANDINGS
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series was back to their normal practice sessions Saturday at Kansas Speedway. The teams were broken into groups based on their performance at Bristol last Saturday night. The drivers had 15-minutes to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Kansas is a 1.5-mile intermediate track. It takes 30 seconds to turn a lap at Kansas. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. This is important because there were no cautions in the first two Stages at Kansas in May. We can expect some long runs Sunday, so we need to focus our picks on the drivers with the best long-run speed in their cars.
Here are the practice speeds for the Hollywood Casino 400 …
CUP SERIES STATS AT KANSAS
The cream typically rises to the top on the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks in the playoffs because the teams with the most funding put a lot of work into their cars for this race. The best way to handicap the Hollywood Casino 400 is to look at the drivers who were fast in the last three races at Kansas and combine that data with the drivers who were fast in the other three intermediate track races this year (Las Vegas, Texas and Charlotte). This should give us an idea of which drivers will run up front Sunday.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Kansas and the intermediate track race in 2024, sorted by DraftKings Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps (400 miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points for fastest laps (186.9 Dominator Points). There were 27 lead changes in the race at Kansas in May. There should be a lot of lead changes again this week. That means the dominator points should get spread out.
There are typically four dominators in the races at Kansas in the Gen-7 car. The main dominator leads roughly 70 laps and scores 24 fastest laps (28.3 dominator points). The second dominator leads roughly 64 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (28.6 dominator points). The third dominator leads 54 laps and scores 14 fastest laps (19.8 dominator points). The final dominator leads roughly 44 laps and scores 10 fastest laps (15.5 dominator points). We are going to need at least three of these dominators in our lineup Sunday in order to win some cash.
* Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin have been one of the top dominators in the last three races at Kansas.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Ty Gibbs
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, Noah Gragson, Ryan Preece and Ty Dillon
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,300): Bell is my pick to win the championship, so of course I have him finishing up front at Kansas Speedway. Bell has led laps in every race in the Gen-7 car at Kansas and he has scored Stage Points in three of the last four Stages at the track. The No. 20 will start on the pole Sunday, so Bell has the track position to score a lot of Stage Points and a good chance to win the race. Bell said after qualifying, “This is the best car I have ever had at Kansas.”
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,000): Elliott had an engine drop a cylinder in practice so he will start in the back Sunday. Elliott has been the most consistent driver on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2024. He should have no problem driving to the front in the Hollywood Casino 400. Elliott is almost a lock to score the most place difference points and is a lock for all lineups at Kansas.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,000): Someone started a rumor about Bowman being fired from Hendrick Motorsports and that really lit a fire in the No. 48 team. Bowman starts the Round of 12 in 11th place. He needs a good race and I think he will get it. Bowman has never finished outside the top-10 in the Gen-7 car at Kansas. He should be a safe pick for your DFS lineups Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,300): The Round of 16 was not good for the No. 6 team and now Keselowski is eliminated from the playoffs. Keselowski said his team is not ready to give up on the season. They still want to win more races. Keselowski finished 2nd at Texas and 2nd at Charlotte earlier this year. The No. 6 car starts 26th Sunday, so Keselowski has a good chance to score a lot of place differential points for your DFS lineups.
NOAH GRAGSON ($7,200): Gragson had his best race of the season at Kansas in March. He qualified 3rd for the race, finished 9th in Stage 1, 10th in Stage 2 and the No. 10 car finished 9th in the race. The No. 10 car has been at its best on the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks this year, even when Gragson qualifies outside the top-20. He should be able to move up 6-8 spots Sunday and score well for your lineup.
RYAN PREECE ($6,100): “Play Ryan Preece” is not the first thoughts that come to mind when the Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway. He has not been very good in the races on the 1.5-mile tracks this year, but he has been a good “punt play” for your DFS lineups. Preece started 36th and finished 23rd at Las Vegas. He also started 26th and finished 12th at Texas, started 32nd and finished 28th at Kansas and he started 31st and finished 26th at Charlotte. That is an average of nine place differential points on the 1.5-mile tracks this year. I just need Preece to keep doing what he has been doing for this pick to work out well.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,000): I know the ownership for Elliott is going to be outrageous, but I just cannot fade him from the back. The No. 9 car had the 4th fastest long-run speed before it blew up. I trust the Hendrick Motorsports Engine Team to get the car fixed up and Elliott to race to the front Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,700): Hendrick Motorsports always runs well at Kansas Speedway, but the No. 24 team looked lost in the May race at the track. Byron qualified an unbelievable 36th and finished 23rd. It looks like the No. 24 team used the notes from their teammates this week. Byron posted the fastest speed on the long-runs in practice and qualified 6th for the race. I expect a bounce-back race from Byron Sunday at Kansas Speedway.
TY GIBBS ($9,200): I was hoping that Gibbs would advance to the Round of 12 because he would have had more fantasy value if he was still alive in the playoffs. I doubt the No. 54 team is ready to quit. Gibbs finished 5th at Las Vegas and 6th at Charlotte. He looks fast again this weekend. Gibbs posted the 5th fastest speed in practice with the 5th fastest long-run speed. Gibbs has a good chance to be one of the dominators Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,000): Bowman has been one of the safest drivers on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and he is on a hot streak right now. The No. 48 car had a lot of speed in practice. I will play Bowman in both lineups Sunday.
CARSON HOCEVAR ($6,600): Hocevar has two starts in the Cup Series at Kansas Speedway. He finished 20th in this race last year and 24th in May. Hocevar finished 15th at Las Vegas, 10th at Kansas and 21st at Charlotte. Hocevar posttest the 4th fastest speed in practice with the 3rd fastest long-run speed. The No. 77 car is fast enough to finish in the top-10 at Kansas.
JUSTIN HALEY ($6,400): Haley has a new car and a new team this weekend. Haley moved from the No. 51 car at Rick Ware Racing to the No. 7 car at Spire Motorsports. This car has had more speed than what Haley had with his old team. Haley finished 18th at Kansas in May. He should have the upside to finish inside the top-15 Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
Follow me on (X) Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook