The NASCAR Cup Series will continue their playoffs this weekend when they compete at home on the Charlotte Roval. This will be the fifth race for the Cup Series on a road course this year. The other races were won by William Byron (COTA), Kyle Larson (Sonoma), Alex Bowman (Chicago) and Chris Buescher (Watkins Glen). That is three drivers from Hendrick Motorsports and one Ford from RFK Racing. Will Hendrick Motorsports win another race in their backyard, or will we see a different team in Victory Lane this week? It will be fun to see how it all plays out. The Bank of America Roval 400 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
CUP SERIES PLAYOFF STANDINGS
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
NASCAR took a week off from practicing last week because the Cup Series was racing at a Superspeedway track. The teams were given a 40-minutes practice session Saturday to dial in their cars for the Bank of America Roval 400. Most of the drivers made some 5 or 10-lap runs and then brought their cars in for some adjustments. We can probably learn enough from this practice session to help us with our picks for the race Sunday.
Here are the practice speeds for the Bank of America Roval 400 …
CUP SERIES STATS AT CHARLOTTE ROVAL
The Charlotte Roval is not like the other road course tracks on the schedule. There have only been two races in the Gen-7 car at this track and there have been a handful of drivers who have finished up front in both races. I will be using the stats from the two races at the Charlotte Roval and combining it with the stats from the races at COTA, Sonoma and Watkins Glen this year. The drivers who run well at Charlotte and have had good speed on the road courses this year are the drivers we will want in our lineups Sunday.
Here are the stats from the last two races at the Charlotte Roval and the road course track races in 2024 (not including Chicago), sorted by DraftKings Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The Bank of America Roval 400 is scheduled for 109 laps. That means there are 27.25 points available for leading laps and 49.05 points available for fastest laps (76.3 total dominator points). The two races at the Charlotte Roval in the Gen-7 car have been three dominator races. The main dominator leads roughly 48 laps and scores 16 fastest laps (19.2 dominator points). The second dominator leads roughly 30 laps and scores 8 fastest laps (11.1 dominator points). The third dominator leads roughly 16 laps and scores 10 fastest laps (8.5 dominator points). It would be nice to get two of these dominators into our lineup Sunday, but it is not necessary. It is more important to build a lineup with at least five drivers with a good chance to finish in the top-10 and a “punt play” who can score some place differential points.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Shane van Gisbergen, Tyler Reddick, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Martin Truex Jr., Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs, Michael McDowell, Erik Jones, Noah Gragson, Ryan Preece and Kaz Grala
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,500): Elliott dominated the road course races in the old car and he has struggled in the Gen-7 car at these tracks. It looks like he is starting to get his rhythm back. Elliott finished 4th at Sonoma and he looks fast again this weekend. Elliott posted the fastest long-run speed in practice and qualified 7th for the race. William Byron, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman have won on the road courses this year. I would not be surprised if Elliott adds his name to the list of Hendrick Motorsports drivers in Victory Lane on a road course in 2024.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,300): Reddick has the best Driver Rating, the second-best Average Finishing Position (Behind Kyle Busch) and scored the most Stage Points in the Gen-7 car on the Charlotte Roval. Reddick finished 5th at COTA, 8th at Sonoma and 2nd in the Chicago Street Race this year. Reddick is the best value on the slate at only $9,300 Sunday.
KYLE BUSCH ($8,300): I will have a lot of shares of Busch Sunday at his cheap price. His worst finish in the Gen-7 car at the Charlotte Roval is 3rd. That is the best in the Cup Series. He also has the best Driver Ranking and averaged the 4th-most DFS Points at the Charlotte Roval. Busch desperately wants to win a race to extend his streak of consecutive seasons with a win. I am not sure he will win Sunday, but he is a good pick for a top-five finish.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,100): Bowman is way too cheap this weekend to pass up. Bowman has been the best driver in the playoffs this year and I doubt he will slow down this week. Bowman has competed in five races on the Charlotte Roval (He did not race in 2022 because of an injury) and he has NEVER finished outside the top-10. His average finishing position at the Charlotte Roval is 6th. I want as many drivers as possible who can finish in the top-10 in my lineup. Bowman is one of those drivers.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8,000): Truex had the 9th-fastest car on the long-run in practice, but obviously the car did not have any single-lap speed, since he qualified 30th for the race Sunday. I am sure the team will add some more take off speed for the car. Truex is one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series. He should score a lot of place differential points and be a good pick for your lineup.
NOAH GRAGSON ($6,600): The No. 10 team was working on setups for their teammate (Chase Briscoe) in practice. Briscoe is still alive in the playoffs, so Stewart-Haas Racing wanted to help the No. 14 team as much as possible. Now that practice is over, Gragson will get a setup that works for him. He started 29th and finished 23rd in the race last year. Gragson will be a great cheap driver for your lineup if he can finish around the 23rd position Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
AJ ALLEMENDINGER ($10,000): It is going to be tough to fade Allmendinger Sunday. He won this race last year and he finished 4th in the Bank of America Roval 400 in 2022. That is an average finishing position of 2.5 in the Gen-7 car at the Charlotte Roval. Allmendinger has also led an average of 35 laps in the Gen-7 car at this track. Allmendinger should be one of the best picks for the race Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,800): Byron is already locked into the Round of 8 because he is 74 points above the cut-line. This is his home track and he has a history of running well at Charlotte Motor Speedway and it does not matter if it is the Coca-Cola 600 or the Bank of America Roval 400. Byron finished 2nd in this race last year. He also won on the road course at COTA earlier this year. The No. 24 car looked fast in practice, so there is a good chance that Byron will finish up front Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($9,100): Buescher has been one of the most consistent drivers on the road courses in the Gen-7 car and the Charlotte Roval is his best track. Buescher finished 7th, 6th and 3rd in his last three races on the Charlotte Roval. He also finished 8th at COTA, 3rd at Sonoma and won the race at Watkins Glen this year. Buescher has scored the most DraftKings Points on the road courses this year and no one is close to him. He should score a lot of place differential points from the 29th starting position.
AUSTIN CINDRIC ($7,500): Every year a driver advances to the Round of 8 and everyone had that driver eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. That driver this year is Cidric. He haa been good in the playoffs and his strong run should continue at the Charlotte Roval. Cindric finished 10th at Watkins Glen in the first round of the playoffs. The No. 2 car has the speed to finish in the top-10 again Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($7,300): Logano always gets overlooked and underpriced on the road courses. I know he has not won many of these races, but he is not that bad. Logano finished 5th, 18th, 7th, 2nd, 10th and 10th in the six races on the Charlotte Roval. I want drivers who can finish in the top-10 in my lineup and Logano has done it in six of his seven races at the track. Logano is a good pick for his cheap price.
CARSON HOCEVAR ($6,100): Hocevar has been exceeding expectations all season and I think he will have another good race Sunday. He finished 17th at Sonoma and 3rd at Watkins Glen. His floor is about 20th place and his ceiling is about 10th place. That is not bad for $6,100.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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