The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Martinsville Speedway for another short, flat track race. This track brings NASCAR back to its roots and produces some “old-school” racing with a lot of beating and banging for position. There is always some drama at the end of the races at Martinsville. I see no reason why the race this week should be any different. The Cook Out 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had their normal schedule this week. The teams had a 20-minute practice session to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Martinsville is a .526-mile flat track. It only takes 19 seconds to turn a lap at Martinsville, so most of the teams were able to make a long run in practice. Traffic can be an issue in practice at Martinsville and skew the lap times. I like to look at the long-run speed to handicap this race. We also must remember that track position is HUGE at Martinsville. We will want the drivers who start up front with the premium pit stalls in our lineup Sunday.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice at Martinsville…
DRAFTKINGS POINTS AT RICHMOND AND PHOENIX
The Cup Series has competed at two short, flat tracks this year (Phoenix and Richmond) and they had the race at the L.A. Coliseum, but it is hard to compare those tracks to Martinsville. This is a unique track that requires drivers to out-brake their competitors and create a rhythm in order to pass cars and turn fast laps. I prefer to focus on the driver’s stats from the previous races at Martinsville to help handicap the race Sunday.
Here are the stats from the last four races (Gen-7 car races) at Martinsville sorted by DFS Points….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The Cook Out 400 is scheduled for 400 laps (210.5 miles). That means there are 100 points available for leading laps and 180 points available for fastest laps (180 dominator points). The trend in the Gen-7 car races at Martinsville is for one driver to lead 130 laps and score 50 fastest laps (55 dominator points). Another driver leads 110 laps and scores 36 fastest laps (43.7 dominator points). The third dominator leads 40 laps and scores 36 fastest laps (26.2 dominator points). Two other drivers led 30 laps and score 28 fastest laps (20.1 dominator points). I want as many of these dominators in my lineup as possible, and we really need the top two dominators and the almost 100 bonus points they are likely to score for our lineups. I plan to play a lot of “stars and scrubs” lineups this week so I can capture most of the dominator points Sunday.
The drivers with the best chance to score dominator points today includes Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace and Denny Hamlin
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points include William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell and Corey Lajoie
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($11,200): Larson looked awesome in practice. He had the fastest speed on the long runs in his group and then he went out and won the pole. Larson has said before that he hates Martinsville, but that does not mean he is not good at this track. Larson finished won this race last year and his average finishing position in his last three races at Martinsville is 3rd. The No. 5 car has a great chance to lead the most laps Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,800): Byron looked fast in practice. He had the fastest car on the 15-lap average speed chart and the fifth-fastest speed on the 30-lap average speed chart. He did not get to qualify in the shade like some other drivers, so now Byron will started 18th. He has a good chance to score place differencial and dominator points Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,600): Buescher only looked “OK” in practice and then he went out and qualified 30th for the race. I am sure the No. 17 team will get the car fixed up during the race. Buescher has an average finishing position of 15th in the Gen-17 car at Martinsville. He will score 43 DK Points if he can finish 15th Sunday. That is good enough for your Cash Contest lineup.
CHASE BRISCOE ($7,500): Briscoe is underpriced this week. His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Martinsville is 6th. The No. 14 car has speed again this weekend. Briscoe posted the fastest speed on the 20-lap average speed chart. I expect Briscoe to lead some laps and finish in the top-10 Sunday.
RYAN PREECE ($7,200): Martinsville is a good track for Stewart-Haas Racing. Preece won the pole, led 135 laps, scored 7 Stage Points and finished 15th in this race last year. The No. 41 car looks fast again this weekend. The No. 41 car posted the fastest speed on the 5-lap and 10-lap average speed chart. Preece should be a good, safe pick from the 22nd starting position Sunday.
HARRISON BURTON ($5,400): This is a home race for Burton. He starts 34th, but he posted the 21st-fastest speed in practice, with the 18th fastest long-run speed. Burton has an average finishing position of 20th at Martinsville. I just need him to finish in the top-25 in order to be a good pick Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,500): The two best cars on the stat sheet and in practice were the No. 5 and the No. 11. Larson is going to be the highest owned driver, so I will pivot to Hamlin. He won two of three short track races last year and the race at the L.A. Coliseum. Martinsville is one of his best tracks so I will use Hamlin as one of my top dominators Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,500): The No. 22 team tested at North Wilksboro last month and crew chief Paul Wolfe said they hit on something that should work at Richmond and Martinsville. Logano finished 2nd last week at Richmond and the No. 22 car is fast again this weekend. Logano has a great chance to lead some laps and finish in the top-five Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,900): This race means a lot to Hendrick Motorsports. All of their cars have a special paint scheme this weekend and they all had speed in practice. Bowman posted the 4th fastest speed in practice with the 4th fastest 10-lap average speed. Bowman won at Martinsville in 2021, so he knows his way to Victory Lane at this track.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,700): Wallace finished 11th, 9th and 8th in his last three races at Martinsville. He looks fast again this week. Wallace posted the 2nd fastest speed in practice and qualified 2nd for the race. I expect the No. 23 car to lead some laps and finish in the top-five this week.
CHASE BRISCOE ($7,500): I just cannot fade Briscoe at his current price. You can pivot to JOSH BERRY if you want to be a bit more contrarian. I like both drivers from Stewart-Haas Racing this week, but I will go with Briscoe based on his track history.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,800): Did you have Corey Lajoie as the driver with the fastest car in practice on your BINGO card? I did not either… LaJoie said he loved his car after practice and then went out and qualified 32nd for the race. His starting position has a lot to do with when he qualified his car. The track was backed in the sun, so LaJoie was at a disadvantage. I expect LaJoie to move up and score a lot of place differential points Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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