DFS NASCAR Picks for Cup Series

Facebooktwitter

The NASCAR Cup Series will travel across the country to race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. This track wears out tires, has a lot of character (bumps) and has many lanes to race in. The races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway are typically some of the best races of the season, but it will almost be impossible to top the finish at Atlanta last week. Never bet against the house in Sin City, so maybe we will hit the jackpot with another fantastic race this week. The Pennzoil 400 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

 

PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING

The Cup Series will be back to a normal schedule this week. The teams got 20-minutes to shake down their cars in Saturday’s practice. This is not a lot of time to dial in their cars for Saturday’s race, but it is better than last week when the Cup Series did not have any practice. Some of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. We can learn a lot by looking at the practice speeds for the Pennzoil 400.

Here speeds from Saturday’s practice at Las Vegas Motor Speedway…

 

 

The cars lineup up for qualifying after practice was completed. The cars made a qualifying lap to set the field for Sunday’s race and then they were impounded in the garage. The wind is not going to be as bad Sunday as it was in practice Saturday, so the cars should handle much better in the race.

 

DRAFTKINGS POINTS ON LAS VEGAS (2022 – 2023)

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a tough track. There are bumps in turn one which the drivers will have to navigate. The crew chief will have to set the car to navigate these bumps without losing speed. The wind is also a factor at Las Vegas. Drivers must learn where to enter the corners because the wind has a habit of pushing the cars into the wall at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Some drivers are better at this track than others.

Here are the stats from the last four races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway sorted by DFS Points….

 

 

 

DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY

The Pennzoi 400 is scheduled for 267 laps (400 miles). That means there are 66.75 DK Points available for leading laps and 90 DK Points available for fastest laps (156.75 total dominator points). The trend in the Gen-7 car races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is for one driver to lead 152 laps and score 56 fastest laps (63.2 dominator points). Another driver leads 62 laps and scores 40 fastest laps (33.5 dominator points). A third driver leads 24 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (14.6 dominator points). That is 111.3 bonus points from three drivers. We must pay up to have at least two of these drivers in our lineup Sunday.

The drivers with the best chance to score dominator points today includes Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell

The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points include Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Noah Gragson, Ryan Preece and John H. Nemechek

 

DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats) 

Finish = Finishing Points                PD = Position Differential              Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led

* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.

 

 

DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP

KYLE LARSON ($11,000):  Larson is the favorite to win and he should be. Larson was the fastest driver on the 5, 10, 15 and 20-lap average speed charts in practice. He won the last race at Las Vegas. Larson also finished 2nd in this race last year and 2nd in 2022. He starts 2nd and should be the top dominator in the race.

ROSS CHASTAIN ($9,100): Trackhouse Racing has won two of the last three races (Phoenix and Atlanta). Can they continue to run hot? I think so. Chastain had the fastest car in practice. He starts 20th and his average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Las Vegas is 5th. Chastain should be one of the best picks in the field Sunday.

TYLER REDDICK ($8,900): Las Vegas has many lanes to race in, but typically the drivers navigate to the top of the track. Reddick is one of the best drivers at running the top and getting clean air on his car. He posted fourth-fastest speed in practice with the third-fastest long-run speed. Reddick should score a lot of points from the 18th starting position.

 ALEX BOWMAN ($8,100): Las Vegas is one of the best tracks for Bowman. He won this race in 2022 and he finished 3rd last year. Bowman starts 23rd and he posted the 12th-fastest speed in practice. The No. 48 car is faster than Bowman’s starting position. He should score a lot of place differential points Sunday.

JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($6,700):  Did you see Nemechek in the Xfinity Series race Saturday. He dominated the race and went to Victory Lane. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of his best tracks. I know there is a big difference between the Cup Series and Xfinity Seies, but he should move up from his 27th starting position. There is just too much upside with Nemechek to pass up in the Pennzoil 400.

RYAN PREECE ($6,000): Preece got loose going over the bumps in practice and he smacked the wall. The team went to a back-up car, so now Preece will start 36th. His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Las Vegas is 24th. He will score 30 DK Points if he can finish 24th Sunday. That is not too bad for his price.

* DENNY HAMLIN is going to be the chalk in Cash Contests. I like Hamlin to score well from the 28th position, but he is too expensive. I had to decide if I wanted Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman or Denny Hamlin Tyler Reddick and Noah Gragson. I will take Chastain and Bowman over Hamlin and Gragson.

 

 

DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 KYLE LARSON ($11,000): Fading Larson will give you an advantage over the field because he is going to be the highest owned driver. I will fade him in 30% of my lineups, but not this one. He is just too good and too fast to leave out of too many of your lineups Sunday.

WILLIAM BYRON ($10,500): Did you see the Xfinity Series race Saturday where Chandler Smith and John H. Nemechek dominated the entire race? I expect the same with Kyle Larson and William Byron. They led the most laps in the Gen-7 car at Las Vegas and they won the races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last year (Byron in March and Larson in October). I will try to score most of the dominator points with these two Hendrick Motorsports cars.

BUBBA WALLACE ($8,700): Wallace may get overlooked Sunday. Some people just refuse to play him. I will though. Wallace is at his best on the 1.5-mile tracks. He finished 4th in this race last year. The No. 23 car was 6th fastest in practice. Wallace could score some dominator points and finish in the top-10 Sunday.

TY GIBBS ($7,600): I think this is going to be a breakout season for Gibbs and I want to play him in DFS before it happens. Gibbs has won an Xfinity Series race at Las Vegas, so he knows how to get around this bumpy track. Gibbs was 3rd fastest in practice. I doubt he will be highly owned Sunday.

NOAH GRAGSON ($6,200): Las Vegas is the home track for Gragson. He looked fast in practice. The No. 10 car posted the 2nd fastest speed in practice. Gragson should score some place differential points from the 30th starting position.

RYAN PREECE ($6,000): Preece will be in both of my lineups. He starts deep enough in the field that there is no risk in playing Preece Sunday. It is all upside with the No. 41 car.

 

 

FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)

 

 

FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

Follow me on (X) Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR

If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook