The 2024 DFS season already began with the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum, the Duel Races at Daytona, the Truck Series Race and the Xfinity Series Race. Now it is time for the real season to start with the Daytona 500. My DFS picks have had a lot of success at the Superspeedways because this race comes down to using the correct strategy for your driver selection and most people do not understand it. This race is 70% luck and 30% skill, so I will provide the strategy and hopefully we can get some luck to win some cash our lineups Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The Daytona 500 is scheduled for 200 laps (but we all know there is going to be a caution at the end of the races that will cause a green-white-checker). There will be 50 points available for leading laps and 90 points available for fastest laps (140 dominator points) in DraftKings contests. There will only be 20 dominator points available in FanDuel Contests.
I looked at the trend dating back six years to help predict the dominator points for the race Sunday. The trend in those races is for one driver to lead 72 laps and three other drivers to lead between 25-30 laps. The fastest laps are typically scored by the drivers who run further in the pack since they benefit from being in the draft. That means the top dominator will score roughly 18 dominator points and the other dominator scores 6.5 dominator points. That is not enough dominator points to chase Sunday.
The drivers are getting smarter when it comes to Superspeedway racing. The trend is for the first two Stages to be calm and then the action heats up in the final 30 laps. I expect the same type of race to play out Sunday.
My strategy for Cash Contests has been successful for many years. I typically select drivers who start outside the top-20 (sometimes outside the top-30) and wait for the wrecks. The drivers in my lineup are usually so far back that they are able to avoid the wreck and score positive place differential points.
My strategy for Tournament Contests is similar to the Cash Contest strategy but ownership is important. We want the drivers who start outside the top-15 but we can take some chances with some drivers who start at the back end of the top-10. I plan to completely fade the top-six. Just do not use more than one driver who starts in the top-10 in your lineups. Most of your drivers should start outside the top-15.
DAYTONA STATS
There are some drivers who are really good at Daytona during the race and others who are good at finishing the races. Brad Keselowski has led the most laps in both Daytona 500 races in the Gen-7 car, but he has a bad habit of crashing in the final laps of the race. Martin Truex Jr. is the only driver to complete every lap at Daytona in the Gen-7 car. In order to finish first, you must first finish, right? I want drivers who are good at finishing the races at Daytona. Here are the average DraftKings Points at Daytona using the Gen-7 car…
DAYTONA 500 CORE DRIVERS
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
** This model is not as accurate at Superspeedways as it is at the shorter tracks.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
RYAN BLANEY ($9,800): Blaney will start 32nd after finishing 18th in his Duel Race Thursday night. He is not starting in the back because his car did not have speed. Blaney was running up front when he was dumped by William Byron (it wasn’t really Byron’s fault though). Blaney will go to a backup car and should have no problem making his way to the front. He finished eighth in the 2023 Daytona 500 and fourth in the 2022 Daytona 500 in the Gen-7 car. Blaney is one of the best picks in the field Sunday.
KYLE BUSCH ($9,700): Rowdy won the Daytona 500 last year. The problem is that the caution flag was waived on the final lap and the race went into over-time. Busch lost his track position and finished and finished 19th. This week he has to start in the back in a back-up car. That should not be a problem. Busch started in a back-up car last year and nearly won the Daytona 500. He will be draftking with Austin Dillon from the back Sunday.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8,200): Truex started his Duel Race in 14th position. It took him two laps to get to third place. Truex had one of the best cars in his Duel Race, but he got squeezed on the track and missed his pit cycle with the other Toyota’s. This caused Truex to run out of fuel on pit road and ruined his race. Now he starts 27th with one of the best cars in the field Truex has a good chance to win his first Daytona 500 Sunday.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($8,000): Stenhouse Jr. is another driver who had no problem moving from the back to the front in his Duel Race. Stenhouse started 16th he made his way to the front to lead the second-most laps in the race (15). Stenhouse is a boom or bust driver. I do not need him to win. Stenhouse will score roughly 40 DK Points if he can finish 20th Sunday.
AUSTIN DILLON ($7,300): Dillon won the Daytona 500 in 2021 and he won the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona in 2022. This is by far his best track. Dillon starts 33rd Sunday. That is right next to his teammate Kyle Busch (34th). I expect the two Richard Childress Racing drivers to work together to get to the front. They did it last year and almost finished in the top-five with both cars. Dillon is a good pick for Cash and Tournament Contests Sunday.
DAVID RAGAN ($6,500): Who has the best average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Daytona? You guessed it… it is David Ragan. He drove the No. 15 car for Rick Ware Racing in 2022 at Daytona. He started 34th in both races and finished eighth in the Daytona 500 and ninth in the Coke Zero 400. Ragan was in the winning DFS lineup for both races. Now he starts dead last. Ragan will score roughly 45 DK Points if he just finishes 20th Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* Our goal in the Tournament Contest lineup is to find drivers who start in the back who will not be highly owned.
KYLE BUSCH ($9,700) / AUSTIN DILLON ($7,300): $7,300): I will play the Richard Childress Racing Stack in both lineups Sunday. I see no reason to play Kyle Busch without Austin Dillon or the other way around. These two drivers start in the back and they are going to work together in the race. Both are very good in the draft and I would not be surprised if Dillon pushed Busch to the win or if Busch pushed Dillon across the start-finish line in the Daytona 500.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,100): I ate a lot of chalk by using Kyle Busch in my lineup, so I need to be contrarian with the rest of the picks. Chastain is a very good Superspeedway driver and his ownership is never as high as it should be. He won on the Superspeedway in Atlanta and at Talladega in the Gen-7 car. He started 23rd and finished ninth in the Daytona 500 last year (Chastain scored 52.25 DK Points in last year’s Daytona 500). I have a bet on Chastain to be smashing a watermelon in Victory Lane Sunday, so I will play him in my DFS lineup too.
AJ ALLMENDINGER ($6,200): Allmendinger is known as one of the best road course racers, but he is good on the Superspeedways too. Allmendinger finished his last three Daytona 500’s in the top-10. Allmendinger started 10th and quickly went to the front to lead two laps in his Duel Race Thursday night. His car showed it has speed and Allmendinger has the talent to finish up front. He is a good pick from the 28th starting position Sunday.
NOAH GRAGSON ($6,300): All of the drivers who start outside the top-30 are going to have some ownership this week, but Gragson could be the one who gets overlooked. He started 37th and finished fifth at Daytona in 2022, while driving a Beard Motorsports Chevy. You would think he can do the same in a Stewart-Haas Racing Ford. You have to be a daredevil to win the races at Daytona. It is hard to find a driver as crazy as Gragson this week.
COREY LAJOIE ($6,000): LaJoie is one of the underrated Superspeedway drivers in the garage and Spire Motorsports should have more speed this year than they had in the past. LaJoie started 17th in his Duel Race. He went to the front and led a lap. What was really impressive though is that LaJoie was able to make 127 green flag passes in the race. No driver in either Duel race passed as many drivers as LaJoie. He should pass a lot of drivers Sunday from his 29th starting position.
* Do not be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table this week
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
* Do not be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table this week
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* Do not be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table this week
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