The Cup Series will continue their Round of 8 when they make the trip this weekend to Homestead-Miami Speedway. This track typically produces some of the best racing of the year. Joey Logano punched his ticket to the Championship Four. It will be fun to see if another driver can join him by earning a trip to Victory Lane at Homestead. The Dixie Vodka 400 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
CUP SERIES PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
Homestead-Miami Speedway is a unique track. It is more of a rectangle than it is an oval. It is a 1.5-mile track that wears out tires quickly and forces the drivers to run up against the wall and search the track for grip. The drivers who posted the best long-run speed in practice will be the drivers you will want in your DFS lineups Saturday.
Here are the practice speeds from Saturday’s practice at Homestead…
DFS POINTS ON INTERMEIDATE TRACKS (2022)
There have been six races on the 1.5-mile tracks this season (Charlotte, Texas and two races at Kansas and Las Vegas). I am also adding in the two races at Darlington to the data since that is the most similar track to Homestead. The drivers who scored well in DFS Contests in these races will likely score well Sunday. Here is the driver’s average DFS Points on the intermediate tracks in 2022…
DFS STRATEGY FOR HOMESTEAD
The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps. That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps in the race (186.9 dominator points). There are 26.7 dominator points available in FanDuel Contests.
The trend at Homestead in the Xfinity Series is for one driver to lead 100 laps and score 40 fastest laps (43 dominator points). A second driver leads 60 laps and scores 30 fastest laps (28.5 dominator points). A third driver leads 50 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (25.1 dominator points). It will be important to pay up for the driver we think can lead the most laps and score the most dominator points Sunday.
The drivers who have the best chance to score the most dominator points Sunday include: William Byron Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
CORE DRIVERS FOR HOMESTEAD
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: Tyler Reddick ($10,900), Kyle Larson ($10,800), Denny Hamlin ($10,600), Chase Elliott ($10,400), Joey Logano ($9,800), Ross Chastain ($9,600), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,400), William Byron ($9,200), Christopher Bell ($9,000)
VALUE DRIVERS: Kevin Harvick ($8,800), Chase Briscoe ($8,500), Daniel Suarez ($8,300), Noah Gragson ($8,100), Erik Jones ($7,900), Austin Dillon ($7,200), Brad Keselowski ($7,000), Justin Haley ($6,300), ), John H. Nemechek ($6,100)
PUNT PLAYS: Ty Dillon ($5,700) Cole Custer ($5,500), Todd Gilliland ($5,100), Corey LaJoie ($5,000)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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