The NASCAR Cup Series will travel back to Kansas Speedway Sunday. The Cup Series competed at the track in May. We have not seen a driver sweep the races at Kansas since Martin Truex Jr. did it in 2017. That does not mean the drivers who were fast in May will not be fast this week. NASCAR moved this race from October to September so the track temps this week should be similar to what they had in May. It should be a fun race for DFS contests. The Hollywood Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network.
PRACTICE SPEEDS AT KANSAS
The Cup Series had its regular schedule this week. The teams had 20 minutes of practice to dial in their cars and then they qualified for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas. The cars are impounded after qualifying, so the speed the cars had in practice is the speed they will start the race with Sunday. The race is shorter than what they had last week in the Southern 500, so that means there will be fewer pit stops to adjust the cars. Kansas Speedway has high-tire wear so we will want the drivers who post the fastest speeds on the 10-lap average speed chart in our lineups Sunday.
Here are the lap times from the practice Saturday at Kansas…
AVERAGE DFS POINTS ON LARGE INTERMEDIATES TRACKS (2022)
Kansas is a 1.5-mile, tri-oval track with progressive banking. The track wears out tires quicker than some of the other tracks on the schedule. The best way to handicap this race is to look at the results this year on similar tracks. These tracks include the races at Las Vegas, Charlotte, Michigan and the first race at Kansas. Darlington is a completely different shaped and sized track, but “The Track Too Tough to Tame” does have high tire-wear and it will factor in momentum, so I will look at the race at Darlington too.
Here are the average DFS points on the large intermediate tracks in 2022…
DFS STRATEGY FOR KANSAS
The race at the Kansas is scheduled for 267 laps (400 miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for leading laps (186.9 dominator points). There will be 26.7 dominator points available in FanDuel Contests.
The trend at Kansas is for one driver to lead roughly 100 laps and score 60 fastest laps (52 dominator points). A second driver leads roughly 50 laps and scores 40 fastest laps (30.5 dominator points). Passing the leader has been tough at Kansas so we should see one driver lead a lot of laps again Sunday.
We will have to pay up for the drivers we think will lead the most laps Sunday because we need to score as many of the 186.9 dominator points as possible. I plan to play at least two dominators in my lineups at Kansas.
The drivers I expect to lead the most laps and be the top dominators in the race include: Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain and Martin Truex Jr.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
CORE DRIVERS FOR KANSAS
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: Denny Hamlin ($11,100), Kyle Busch ($10,900), Kyle Larson ($10,700), Chase Elliott ($10,500), Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300), Ross Chastain ($10,000), Tyler Reddick ($9,800), Christopher Bell ($9,600),
VALUE DRIVERS: Ryan Blaney ($8,900), Kevin Harvick ($8,700), Alex Bowman ($8,200), Bubba Wallace ($8,000), Erik Jones ($7,800), Ty Gibbs ($7,200), Brad Keselowski ($7,000), Chris Buescher. ($6,900), Aric Almirola ($6,500), Rickey Stenhouse Jr. ($6,300), Noah Gragson ($6,100), Cole Custer ($6,000)
PUNT PLAYS: Justin Haley ($5,500), Todd Gilliland ($5,400), Landon Cassill ($5,200)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE BUSCH ($10,900): Rowdy has been at his best on the 1.5-mile tracks this year. He finished fourth at Las Vegas, third at Kansas and second at Charlotte. The No. 18 car was also one of the best cars last week at Darlington. Busch was not fast in practice and he did not qualify up front but I expect the No. 18 car to quickly go to the front Sunday. He should score a lot of place differential points at Kansas.
KYLE LARSON ($10,700): Larson has a history of running well at Kansas and the No. 5 car is fast again this weekend. Larson dominated this race on his way to Victory Lane last year. He posted the fifth-fastest speed in practice and Larson starts seventh Sunday. He is one of my picks to dominate the race at Kansas.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($9,600): Bell has been the most consistent driver on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and the No. 20 car has a lot of speed this weekend. Bell finished fifth at Kansas in May and then finished fifth the next week in the Coca-Cola 600. Bell posted the third-fastest speed in practice. He will have a good chance to score dominator points from the fourth starting position.
ARIC ALMIROLA ($6,500): The No. 10 car had engine problems in practice. The team changed the engine so Almirola did not make a qualifying lap. He will start last and be scored from the last position. Almirola finished 26th at Kansas in May and 26th in this race last year. He will score 26 DK Points if he finishes 26th Sunday. I think he will score closer to 30 DK Points.
COLE CUSTER ($6,000): Custer qualified 29th for the race Sunday. I am not worried about where he starts. He always starts in the back. Custer finished 22nd at Kansas in May and 18th at Kansas last year. He has also finished his last three races in the top-16. Custer should finish near the 20th position and score roughly 32 DK Points.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($6,300): Stenhouse liked his car in practice and then he got a flat tire and hit the wall. He limped the car around the track in qualifying and now he will start 35th Sunday. The team will like fix the damage because Stenhouse already starts in the back. So can Stenhouse score well from the back? He hit the wall in practice at Kansas in May and start 36th. He went on to finish eighth and score 65 DK Points. He will be awesome if Stenhouse can do that again.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($10,700): Larson will be in my Cash and Tournament Contest lineup Sunday. He is my pick to be one of the top dominators. Kansas is his best 1.5-mile track so I am not going to fade the No. 5 car this week.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,800): Reddick had the best car Saturday. He posted the fastest speed in practice and the No. 8 car was fastest on all of the long-run speed charts. Reddick won the pole and has the No. 1 pit stall for the Hollywood Casino 400. I am not sure Reddick will win the race but he should lead a lot of laps and score well for your DF lineup.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($9,600): Bell is my pick to win Sunday so of course he will be in my Cash and Tournament Contest lineup. Bell was the fastest on all of the speed charts but the teams in the Garage were all comparing their cars to the No. 20. That tells me Bell is the driver to beat in the Hollywood Casino 400.
KEVIN HARVICK ($8,700): It is no secret that Harvick is not a fan of the safety components of the Gen-7 car, but that has not stopped him from running well. Harvick said his car handled well in practice and that is more important than speed for the No. 4 team (He never practices well). Harvick should get to the front from the No. 14 position.
COLE CUSTER ($6,000): I expect Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be highly owned from the back of the field. I will pivot to the low owned Custer. I am not sure if Stewart-Haas Racing told Custer he is racing for his job or not, but he has really started to run better in his last three races. I expect he will move up 10-12 spots Sunday.
LANDON CASSILL ($5,200): Cassill will be my “punt play” Sunday. He finished 25th at Darlington last week and scored 22 DK Points. All I need Cassill to do is to stay out of the wrecks. He is pretty good at that. Cassill should be one of the better punt plays Sunday.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook