The NASCAR Cup Series will continue their playoffs this week with a trip to Kansas Speedway. NASCAR eliminated many of the 1.5-mile “cookie cutter” tracks from the schedule and I bet they wish they could have some of them back. The racing on the tracks similar to Kansas has been pretty exciting this year. I expect the same Sunday. The Hollywood Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 pm ET on USA Network.
KANSAS PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series teams had 20-minutes to shake down their cars for Sunday race at Kansas. This track does not wear out tires as quickly as Darlington last week, but it is still important to see which drivers were able to maintain their speed over the long runs. The driver who had speed in practice, qualified up front and ran well in the other 1.5-mile races this year (Las Vegas, Charlotte and Kansas) are the drivers we want in our lineups Sunday.
CUP SERIES STATS AT SIMILAR TRACKS
Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile, tri-oval track. It has progressive banking that allows the drivers to race at the bottom, the middle and at the top of the track. Usually the drivers end up near the wall at the end of a fuel run. I used the data from the races at Las Vegas, Charlotte and Michigan to help handicap the Hollywood Casino 400. I also added in the data from the race last week at Darlington, just to add momentum into the model. The drivers who ran well in those races should be up front Sunday.
Here are the average DFS Points from the races on similar tracks to Kansas this year …
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The Hollywood Casino 400 is schedule for 267 laps. The laps led have been more spread out at Kansas since NASCAR switched to the Gen-7 car. The trend at Kansas is for two drivers to lead roughly 80 laps and score 30 fastest laps (33.5 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 40 laps and scores 44 fastest laps (29.8 dominator points). It will be important to pay up for at least three dominators this week and try to score the 97 dominator points that they are projected to score.
The drivers with the best chance to lead laps and score dominator points include Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points includes Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland, Ryan Preece
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR KANSAS
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: DENNY HAMLIN (DK $11K / FD $14K), MARTIN TRUEX JR. (DK $10.7K / FD $13.5K), KYLE LARSON (DK $10.5K / FD $13K), CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $10K / FD $11K), TYLER REDDICK (DK $9.8K / FD $12K), KEVIN HARVICK (DK $9.5K / FD $8K), BUBBA WALLACE (DK $9.2K / FD $10.5K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: CHRIS BUESCHER (DK $8.6K / FD $8.5K), RYAN BLANEY (DK $8.5K / FD $9.5K), CHASE ELLIOTT (DK $8.1K / FD $9K), ALEX BOWMAN (DK $7.8K / FD $7.5K), TY GIBBS (DK $7.6K / FD $7K), ARIC ALMIROLA (DK $6.7K / FD $5K), CHASE BRISCOE (DK $6.6K / FD $6K), AJ ALLMENDINGER (DK $6.5K / FD $5.2K), CARSON HOCEVAR (DK $6.4K / FD $5.8K), RYAN PREECE (DK $6.1K / FD $4.5K)
PUNT PLAYS: JUSTIN HALEY (DK $5.8K / FD $4.2K), TODD GILLILAND (DK $5.2K / FD $3K), J.J. YELEY (DK $5K / FD $2K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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