DFS NASCAR Picks for Martinsville

Facebooktwitter

The Cup Series will set the field for the championship race at Phoenix at the end of the race Sunday at Martinsville. Do you like drama? This race has it. There is almost a 100% chance that someone will be pissed off and ready to throw some punches once the checkered-flag is waived Sunday. It should be fun to watch. The Xfinity 500 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.

 

CUP SERIES PRACTICE / QUALIFYING

The Cup Series had its regular schedule this week at Martinsville Raceway. The teams had 20 minutes of practice to dial in their cars and then they qualified for the Xfinity 500. Practice speeds typically do not translate to race speed much at Martinsville because most drivers will not be able to get the most out of their cars in the race because they will be stuck in traffic. They will not have “clean air” like they had in practice. What does matter at Martinsville is track position. I gave a bump in the rankings to the drivers who qualified up front and have the premium pit stalls at the tight pit road at Martinsville. The first race at Martinsville was a game of “follow the leader.” It could be the same Sunday.

Here are the practice speeds from Saturday’s practice at Martinsville…

 

 

DFS POINTS ON SHORT, FLAT TRACKS (2022)

Martinsville is a unique track. It is a half-mile, paper-clip shaped track that takes a car that can rotate freely through the tight corners in order to post fast laps. Drivers also have to be aggressive to make their own hole in order to move through the field. I looked at the data from the April race at Martinsville, but I also added in the stats from the races at WWT Raceway, Richmond and New Hampshire. It takes a similar setup to navigate those tracks.

 

 

DFS STRATEGY FOR MARTINSVILLE

The race Sunday is scheduled for 500 laps. That means there are 125 points available for leading laps and 225 points available for fastest laps in the race (350 dominator points). There are 50 dominator points available in FanDuel Contests. It is all about the dominator points Sunday.

The trend at Martinsville in the Cup Series is for one driver to lead 260 laps and score 92 fastest laps (106.4 dominator points). A second driver leads 120 laps and scores 90 fastest laps (70.5 dominator points). A third driver leads 90 laps and scores 38 fastest laps (39.6 dominator points).

We MUST pay up for the drivers with the best chance to lead the most laps Sunday. I will be building a lot of “stars and scrubs” lineups for the race at Martinsville. We will not win any contest if we do not have the top dominator in our lineup. You will need the top three dominators if you want to win the “big bucks” this week. It really does not matter what our cheap drivers do if we have the three top dominators in our lineups and score the roughly 216 dominator points they are likely to score.

The drivers who have the best chance to score the most dominator points Sunday include: Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and William Byron

 

 

DRAFTKINGS MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS) 


 Finish = Finishing Points                PD = Position Differential              Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led

* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.

 

 

FANDUEL MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS) 

 

 

CORE DRIVERS FOR MARTINSVILLE

TOP-TIER DRIVERSKyle Larson ($11,700), Denny Hamlin ($11,400), Chase Elliott ($11,200), William Byron ($10,800), Ryan Blaney ($10,400), Joey Logano ($10,000), Christopher Bell ($9,300)

VALUE DRIVERSKyle Busch ($8,900),  Chase Briscoe ($8,000),  AJ Allmendinger ($7,700), Austin Dillon ($7,600), Brad Keselowski ($7,500), Austin Cindric ($7,100), Aric Almirola ($7,000), Chris Buescher ($6,900), ), Erik Jones ($6,700),  Cole Custer ($6,300), Ty Gibbs ($6,100)

PUNT PLAYSRicky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,900), Justin Haley ($5,700) Ty Dillon ($5,300)

 

 

DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 

If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR

If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook