The NASCAR Cup Series only has one weekend off this year. While the drivers were on vacation and fans were celebrating Father’s Day, the Cup Series teams were busy in the garage trying to find speed for the final 10 races of the regular season. We typically have one team that improves after the bye week, but we will not know which team that will be until after the race Sunday. The racing on the intermediate tracks has been pretty good this year. I expect the same at Nashville. The Ally 400 can be seen Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on NBC.
NASHVILLE PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series had a 55-minute practice session for the teams to dial in their cars for Sunday night’s race. NASCAR typically do not give the teams that much time to practice, so now we have a lot of data to work with. The practice was during the day and the race is at night, but I still think the speed from practice should translate into race speed at Nashville.
Here are the practice speeds for the Ally 400 at Nashville…
CUP SERIES STATS AT INTERMEDIATE TRACKS
The Cup Series will use the intermediate aero pack at Nashville. This is the same aero package that was used at the 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte) and at Dover and Darlington. The drivers who were fast in those races should be fast Sunday night. Here are the average DFS Points from the races on the intermediate tracks this year, combined with the stats from the two Cup Series races at Nashville….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 300 laps (399 miles). That means there are 75 points available for leading laps and 135 points available for fastest laps (210 total dominator points). That is a lot of dominator points and we need as many of these bonus points as possible Sunday night.
The first race at Nashville was completely dominated by Kyle Larson. The second race (the first race using the Gen-7 car) saw the dominator points more spread out. I expect the race will be more similar to what we had last year. One driver should lead roughly 110 laps and score 68 fastest laps ((58.1 dominator points). A second driver should lead around 90 laps and score 48 fastest laps (44.1 dominator points). A third driver should lead 50 laps and score 38 fastest laps (29.6 dominator points) and a fourth driver should lead 40 laps and score 20 fastest laps (19 dominator points).
We need to have the top-two dominators in our lineup Sunday night. We will win most of our contests if we are able to score the 102 dominator points that they are likely to score. We will take down some large Tournament Contests if we are able to have the top four dominators in our lineup and score the 150 dominator points they are likely to score. My strategy is to pay up for the dominators at Nashville.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick, Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Michael McDowell, Corey LaJoie,
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR NASHVILLE
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: KYLE LARSON (DK $11.6K / FD $14K), KYLE BUSCH (DK $11.2K / FD $12K), MARTIN TRUEX JR. (DK $10.9K / FD $13.5K), DENNY HAMLIN (DK $10.7K / FD $12.5K), CHASE ELLIOTT (DK $10.4K / FDK $11K), WILLIAM BYRON (DK $10.1K / FD $13K), ROSS CHASTAIN (DK $9.6K / FD $10K), TYLER REDDICK (DK $9.1K / FD $9.5K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: KEVIN HARVICK (DK $8.8K / FD $8.5K), BUBBA WALLACE (DK $8.4K / FD $8.2K), ALEX BOWMAN (DK $8.2K / FD $8K), BRAD KESELOWSKI (DK $8K / FD $7.8K), TY GIBBS (DK $7.8K / FD $7.5K), RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (DK $7.3K / FD $6.8K), AUSTIN CINDRIC (DK $6.7K / FD $5.5K), AJ ALLMENDINGER (DK $6.5K / FD $5K), ERIK JONES (DK $6.2K / FD $5.8K), AUSTIN DILLON (DK $6K / FD $6K)
PUNT PLAYS: MICHAEL MCDOWELL (DK $5.8K / FD $4.5K), COREY LAJOIE (DK $5.3K / FD $4.2K), TODD GILLILAND (DK $5K / FD $2.5K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
MARTIN TRUX JR. ($10,900): Truex is my pick to win Sunday night. The most similar track to Nashville is Dover and Truex just won that race. He also has momentum after his win in the last race at Sonoma. Truex had a car that was top-five on all of the speed charts in practice. The No. 19 car should lead a lot of laps and score some place differential points from the sixth starting position.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,100): Byron dominated the race at Dover in May. He led 193 of the 400 laps. I looked at his practice times for that race and they are similar to what he has this week. Byron started eighth at Dover. He starts fifth Sunday night. Byron has been the best driver on the intermediate tracks this year, so he is worth paying up for at Nashville.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($9,600): It is risky to play Chastain from the pole in Cash Contests, but I trust him this week. This is a big race for Trackhouse Racing since they are based out of Nashville. The team gave Chastain the best car from their garage and it shows. Chastain was top-two on all of the speed charts in practice and he won the pole for the race. I do not need Chastain to win. I just need him to lead the 90 laps in Stage 1 and finish in the top-10.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,200): Keselowski is usually a good pick on concrete. He has won races at Bristol before and he finished eighth at Dover earlier this year. Keselowski had a top-10 car on the long-run speed charts in practice. He has a good chance to score 10-12 place differential points from the 20th starting position.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($5,800): McDowell is one of my favorite “punt plays” this week. His average finishing position on the intermediate tracks this year is 21st. McDowell starts 33rd Sunday night. He will score 33 DK Points if he can simply finish 21st at Nashville. That should be good enough in Cash Contests.
COREY lAJOIE ($5,300): LaJoie got loose in qualifying and he slide through the infield before he crossed the finish line. Now he will start dead last Sunday night. That makes LaJoie a safe pick because he cannot score negative points. LaJoie has an average finishing position of 18.5 in the races using the intermediate track aero package. LaJoie will score 43 DK Points if he cn finish 18th Sunday night. That is a lot of points for $5,300.
*TOURNAMENT CONTESTS: We have seen one organization dominate many of the races this year. I expect one team to hit on the setup Sunday night. I am playing one Tournament Contest with a Joe Gibbs Racing Stack and one with a Hendrick Motorsports Stack. It is risky, but it could just pay off…
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10,900): Truex will be the driver at the top of my Joe Gibbs Racing stack. He has been the best driver in the sport over the last month and his car has a lot of speed this weekend. Truex will be popular, but I am not sure many people will most of the JGR drivers with Truex.
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,700): Hamlin had the second-best car (behind Martin truex Jr.) at Nashville last year. I checked out his practice speeds from last year’s race and they are similar to what Hamlin posted this week. He starts eighth, so Hamlin has a good chance to score place differential points and dominator points.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,100): Reddick wasn’t even on my radar heading into this race. He was not very good last year at Nashville, but he did not drive a Toyota last year. Reddick had the second-fastest car in practice (behind Ross Chastain). The No. 45 car should run up front, lead some laps and score well for your DraftKings lineup.
TY GIBBS ($7,800): It is only a matter of time before Gibbs wins a race. He has a lot of talent and he has a fast car every week. I thought about paying up for Christopher Bell, but I actually like Gibbs more this week. At least he will know how the track will change since he raced in the Xfinity Series race Saturday.
ERIK JONES ($6,200): Jones does not race for Joe Gibbs Race, but he use to wheel one of their cars. I know that doesn’t matter this week, but he was fast in practice. Jones posted the eighth-fastest speed in practice and had the 14th-fastest car on the long-runs. Jones starts 23rd. His car has the speed to finish inside the top-15. I doubt Jones will be highly owned Sunday night.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,300): I will have a lot of ownership of LaJoie this week, but so will everyone else. LaJoie is no risk and all reward. He is a good driver to pair with my Joe Gibbs Racing stack.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT MULTI-ENTRY CONTEST
KYLE LARSON ($11,600): I have my Joe Gibbs Racing Stack and now I need a Hendrick Motorsports Stack. Larson destroyed the field at Nashville in 2021 when he led 264 of the 300 laps. Would it shock you if Larson did it again Sunday night? I would not be surprised. I will pay up for Larson at the top of my HMS Stack.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,100): Pairing Byron with Kyle Larson has worked at most of the intermediate tracks this year and it should work again Sunday night. Byron posted top-five lap speeds on all of the speed charts in practice. He destroyed the field on the concrete at Dover earlier this season. He could do it again at Nashville.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,400): Elliott did not have a fast car in practice last year at Nashville, but he was able to go to Victory Lane. It was the third consecutive win for Hendrick Motorsports at Nashville (Geoffrey Bone in 1986, Kyle Larson in 2021 and Elliott in 2022). The track is going to change when the sun goes down Sunday night. I am sure Alan Gustafson will be able to get Elliott the speed he needs to finish up front.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($7,500): One of the best kept secrets in DFS is Chris Buescher. He is a lot better than most people realize and he runs a lot better than his price. Buescher has an average finishing position of 9.6 over his last eight races (the last two months). Buescher will not have much ownership from the 12th starting position, but he should. The No. 17 car has been pretty good at finishing in the top-10 lately.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,300): I had to decide between Michael McDowell and Corey LaJoie for this pick. I decided to use LaJoie, because it leaves some salary on the table and likely will make the lineup more unique. LaJoie was slightly faster than McDowell on the long-runs in practice. At least he cannot go backwards in Sunday night’s race.
J.J. YELEY ($4,500): Don’t tell anyone, but Yeley has an average finishing position 20.4 over that last two months. He starts 29th, so no one will use Yeley. The Xfinity Series race proved that there may be a lot of wrecks Sunday night. I expect Yeley to just ride around, stay out of trouble and finish inside the top-25 again. That makes Yeley a good “punt play” at Nashville.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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