The NASCAR Cup Series travel to New Hampshire Motor Speedway this week. NASCAR tried Sunday night racing in their last two races, but one was shortened because of darkness and the other race was shortened because of rain. The races did not complete every lap and that ruined some pretty good DFS lineups. Hopefully NASCAR can get the complete race in Sunday and we can cash our lineups at the Magic Mile. The Crayon 301 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network (Steamed on the NBC Sports App).
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series teams had a 20-minute practice session to shake down their cars for the Crayon 301. Most of the teams had enough time to run 10 laps in practice. That should give us an idea of which teams unloaded with some speed and who should be good in the race. We must also remember that track position has been very important on the short tracks this year. We need to look at the practice speeds and the starting positions for our picks this week.
CUP SERIES STATS AT SHORT, FLAT TRACKS
There have been four races on short, flat tracks this year (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville and Gateway). Martinsville is a unique track. I do not think the date from that race will translate into speed at New Hampshire. Most people in the Garage say that “The Magic Mile” (New Hampshire Motor Speedway) is a combination of Phoenix and Gateway. Others believe Richmond is the most similar track to New Hampshire.
I will use the data from the races at Phoenix, Richmond and Gateway to help handicap Sunday’s race. I will also use some of the data from the race last year at New Hampshire in the Gen-7 car. This should give us a good idea of which teams will run up front Sunday.
Here are the driver’s average DFS Points from the three races short, flat track races this year and the race at New Hampshire last year…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
I looked at the trends this year on the short, flat tracks and the trend in the last two races at New Hampshire. The short track aero package used this year has made passing the leader quite difficult. We will likely see one driver dominate the race Sunday. We need to pay up for the drivers we think can lead the most laps and score the most fastest laps. The main dominator has average 62.6 dominator points on the short, flat tracks this season and the driver who leads the second-most laps has averaged 27.8 dominator points. We will need these 90.4 dominator points if we want to win Sunday.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, Erik Jones and Alex Bowman
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $11.2K / FD $13K), MARTIN TRUEX JR. (DK $11K / FD $14K), DENNY HAMLIN (DK $10.9K / FD $13.5K), KYLE LARSON (DK $10.6K / FD $12K), KEVIN HARVICK (DK $9.6K / FD $10.5K), RYAN BLANEY (DK $9.4K / FD $9.5K), JOEY LOGANO (DK $9.2K / FD $9K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: ROSS CHASTAIN (DK $8.8K / FD $10K), BRAD KESELOWSKI (DK $8.6K / FD $8K), TYLER REDDICK (DK $8.4K / FD $8.5K), ARIC ALMIROLA (DK $8.2K / FD $7.8K), BUBBA WALLACE (DK $8K / FD $8.2K), ALEX BOWMAN (DK $7.8K / FD $7.2K), TY GIBBS (DK $7.6K / FD $7K), CHRIS BUESCHER (DK $7.3K / FD $6.5K), RYAN PREECE (DK $7.1K / FD $6.2K), ERIK JONES (DK $6.4K / FD $5.8K)
PUNT PLAYS: MICHAEL MCDOWELL (DK $5.9K / FD $4.8K) JUSTIN HALEY (DK $5.8K / FD $4.5K), COLE CUSTER (DK $5K / FD $2.5K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($11,200): I could use Martin Truex Jr. or Christopher Bell as my dominator in the Cash Contest lineup. They had the two fastest cars in practice and they have been the two best cars at the Magic Mile in the Gen-7 car. I decided to use Bell since he starts on the pole, has the No. 1 pit stall and his pit crew has been a bit faster that the No. 19 pit crew this season.
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,900): Hamlin is a lock from the 20th starting position. Hamlin hasn’t finished outside the top-10 at New Hampshire since 2018. The No. 11 car posted the 12th-fastest speed in practice, with the fourth-fastest long-run speed. Hamlin should move up 12-14 spots in the race and be one of the top scoring drivers in DFS contests.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,800): Chastain almost crashed in qualifying because his car was loose. Now he starts 31st. The No. 1 team will get their car tightened up and Chastain should be fine for the race. He finished 8th in his last two races at New Hampshire. Chastain will be one of the top scoring drivers if he can finish in the top-10 Sunday. I think he can do it.
TY GIBBS ($7,600): Gibbs had the fifth-best car in practice, but he got loose in qualifying and aborted his lap. Now Gibbs will start 36th. He should easily score 21 place differential points and 50 DK Points for your lineup. That makes Gibbs a fantastic play at New Hampshire.
ERIK JONES ($6,400): Jones posted the 16th-fastest speed in practice and then went out and qualified 30th. I just need Jones to finish inside the top-20 and he should do it. Jones finished 19th in his two races at New Hampshire while driving the No. 43 car for Petty GMS Motorsports. Jones also finished 18th in the last short, flat track race at Gateway. I will roll the dice with Jones Sunday.
COLE CUSTER ($5,000): I debated between Ryan Newman and Cole Custer. I decided to use Custer. He looked great in the Xfinity Series race Saturday. He also looked decent in practice. Custer posted the 27th-fastest speed in practice and qualified 34th in the race. He should be able to move up a few spots and post enough points to help the Cash Contest lineup reach the pay-line at New Hampshire.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($11,200) / MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8,800): One driver is going to dominate the race Sunday and score a lot of dominator points. I cannot decide if it will be Christopher Bell or Martin Truex Jr., so I will just play both of them. Whichever one does not dominate should finish in the top-five. I typically do not play the drivers who start first and second, but I trust Bell and Truex at the Magic Mile.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,800): Chastain is going to be a popular pick but it may be tough to win without the No. 1 car in your lineup. Chastain is nearly a lock for 50 DK Points Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($7,600): Everything I wrote about Ross Chastain above can be applied to Ty Gibbs. I do not mind playing the popular drivers in the Single-Entry Tournament Contests. We need to be a bit more contrarian in the Multi-Entry Tournament Contests.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($7,400): McDowell had the fastest car in practice. I am not sure what happened in qualifying, but now he will start 17th. Usually I do not play McDowell on oval tracks when he starts inside the top-20, but his car is too fast to fade this weekend.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,400): I will take a chance with LaJoie at New Hampshire. LaJoie starts 24th and he finished 21st at Richmond and 21st at Gateway (the last two short, flat track races using the current aero package). LaJoie also posted the 21st-fastest speed in practice. LaJoie may not finish inside the top-15, but he should be fast enough to finish around the 20th position and score roughly 28 DK Points. That is not too bad for $5,400.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT MULTI-ENTRY CONTEST
Everyone is going to load up their lineups with Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. I will pivot to the Fords and play Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney. Keselowski has led the most laps in the last three laps at New Hampshire and he has the best Driver Ranking. Harvick has won the most races at New Hampshire and he has not finished outside the top-10 at the Magic Mile since 2017. Blaney finished second at Phoenix and sixth at Gateway this year. Ross Chastain and Ty Gibbs offer too much value to fade, even if they are highly owned. Michael McDowell has a great chance to finish in the top-10 from the 17th starting position.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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