The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to the Lone Star State to race at Texas Motor Speedway. This will be the first race in the Round of 12. There were some surprises in the Round of 16, so it will be interesting to see how the race this week plays out. I am sure some drivers will be happy with the points they earn Sunday and others will not sleep because they know they will need to finish up front at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval in order to advance. The Auto Trader EchoPark Automotive 400 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
TEXAS PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series teams had 20-minutes to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race at Texas. We can learn a bit by looking at the single-lap speeds, but I will be focusing on the 10-lap average speed for the picks for Sunday’s race. Here are the driver’s speeds from the practice session Saturday at Texas…
STATS FOR THE RACE AT TEXAS
Texas is a 1.5-mile intermediate track similar to Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. We can learn a lot by looking at the cars that had speed at the intermediate tracks in 2023. I will use the data from those races, with the race at Kansas two weeks ago getting extra weight in the rankings. I will also add in the data from the race at Darlington to show which drivers have momentum on the intermediate tracks. Finally, I will use the data from the Gen-7 car race at Texas last year to add track history to the model.
Here are the average DFS Points from the races on the intermediate tracks (2023) and the race last year at Texas…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The strategy for DFS Contests on intermediate tracks is to typically play two or three dominators in your lineups and try to score the bonus points for leading laps and the fastest laps. That may not be the best strategy this week. I plan to build balanced lineups where I can fit four or five drivers who qualified up front into the lineup. There were 36 LEAD CHANGES last year at Texas. Six drivers were able to lead at least 23 laps in the race and no driver led more than 70 laps. I expect the dominator points to get spread out Sunday. Our lineups will have a good chance of returning a nice profit if we’re are able to find four drivers who lead the most laps Sunday.
The drivers with the best chance to lead laps and score dominator points include Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points includes Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Chase Briscoe, Justin Haley and Zane Smith
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR TEXAS
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: KYLE LARSON (DK $11.2K / FD $13.5K), DENNY HAMLIN (DK $11K / FD $14K), WILLIAM BYRON (DK $10.8K / FD $12.5K), TYLER REDDICK (DK $10.2K / FD $12K), CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $9.9K / FD $11.5K), KYLE BUSCH (DK $9.6K / FDK $10.5K), RYAN BLANEY (DK $9.4K / FD $11K), CHASE ELLIOTT (DK $9.2K / FD $9K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: BRAD KESELOWSKI (DK $8.9K / FD $9.5K), CHRIS BUESCHER (DK $8.8K / FD $10K), BUBBA WALLACE (DK $8.6K / FD $8.2K), ROSS CHATAIN (DK $8.5K / FD $8.5K), JOEY LOGANO (DK $8K / FD $7.8K), ARIC ALMIROLA (DK $7.1K / FD $5K), RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (DK $6.9K / FD $6.5K), CHASE BRISCOE (DK $6.2K / FD $4.8K)
PUNT PLAYS: JUSTIN HALEY (DK $5.9K / FD $4.5K), AUSTIN CINDRIC (DK $5.8K / FD $6K), ZANE SMITH (DK $5.4K / FD $4K), J.J. YELEY (DK $5K / FD $2K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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