The NASCAR Cup Series will continue the short track portion of their schedule when they race at Martinsville Speedway. The teams will use the new short, track aero package. It is the same package that was used at Phoenix and Richmond. The racing at Martinsville was not great last year in the Gen-7 car, so NASCAR will take 30% of the downforce off of the cars to make them tougher to drive and hopefully create more passing in the race. The NOCO 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 pm ET on FS1.
MARTINSVILLE PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series had a short practice session and then the cars lined up for qualifying Saturday. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice, so that gives us some data to use for the race. It also helps that practice was at the same time as the race Sunday, so track conditions should be similar.
Here are the speeds from practice Saturday at Martinsville Speedway…
CUP SERIES STATS AT MARTINSVILLE
Martinsville is a unique track. The best way to get to the front is to out-brake your competitors in the corners. Some drivers have mastered this skill, while others are just in the way. The same drivers continue to dominate the races at Martinsville, so we can learn a lot by looking at the drivers who have a history of scoring well in DFS contests at Martinsville.
Here are the average DFS points in the last six races at Martinsville…
The race Sunday is scheduled for 400 laps (200 Miles). That means there are 100 points available for leading laps and 180 points available for fastest laps (180 total dominator points). That is a lot of dominator points and we need as many as possible for our lineups Sunday.
The trend at Martinsville is for one driver to lead 200 laps and score 72 fastest laps (82.4 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 190 laps and scores 70 fastest laps (79 dominator points). We will not win our contests if we do not have these 162 dominator points in our lineups.
I plan to pay up for the drivers who I think can lead the most laps. It does not matter what our cheap drivers do if we are able to score the 180 dominator points Sunday. I plan to play a lot of “stars and scrubs” lineups in order to capture the dominator points at Martinsville.
Chase Elliott is returning to the No. 9 car after recovering from his leg injury. Elliott would be the highest priced or very close to the top, if he were completely healthy. Martinsville is one of his best tracks. Elliott did not look good in practice and he qualified 24th. He should still be a good pick Sunday.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Ryan Preece
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman and Austin Cindric
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR MARTINSVILLE
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: WILLIAM BYRON ($10.8K / FD $14K), KYLE LARSON ($10.6K FD $13.5K), CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10.5K FD $13K), MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10.3K FDK $11.5K), DENNY HAMLIN ($10.1K FD $12.5K), JOEY LOGANO ($9.9K / FD $12K), KYLE BUSCH ($9.7K FD $10.5K), RYAN BLANEY ($9.5K FD $11K), CHASE ELLIOTT ($9.3K FD $11.8K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: ROSS CHASTAIN ($8.8K FD $10K), CHASE BRISCOE ($8.6K FD $7.8K), KEVIN HARVICK ($8.4K / FD $9K), ALEX BOWMAN ($8.2K FD $9.5K), BRAD KESELOWSKI ($7.7K FD $8.5K), RYAN PREECE ($7.4K FD $6.2K), ARIC ALMIROLA ($7.2K FD $7.5K), BUBBA WALLACE ($7.1K FD $7K), AUSTIN CINDRIC ($6.8K FD $5.8K), ERIK JONES ($6.5K FD $4.8K)
PUNT PLAYS: HARRISON BURTON ($5.7K FD $4.5K), TODD GILLILAND ($5.5K FD $3K), NOAH GRAGSON ($5.3K FD $3.5K), TY DILLON ($5.1K FD $2.5K), COREY LAJOIE ($5K FD $4.8K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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