It is officially “Speedweeks” at Daytona. The on-track activity got started with qualifying last night. Now it is time for some racing.
The NASCAR Cup Series has a unique way of setting the field for the Daytona 500. There will be two qualifying races Thursday night called the Duel Races. Each race is 150 miles in length and the driver’s finishing position in the race will dictate where he will start in the Daytona 500.
STRATEGY
The trend in the Duel Races is for one race to be calm and the other will have a lot of wrecks. That probably will not happen tonight. Almost every driver at Media Day said the same thing… “The most important thing is to bring the car home in one piece so we will have it for the race Sunday.” The teams put a lot of work into their primary car so it is important to have it for the Daytona 500.
The first Dual Race last year had ZERO CAUTIONS and guess how many they had in 2022? You guess it… NO CAUTIONS. The second Dual Race last year had two caution flags for nine laps and in 2022 they had 1 caution flag for one lap. There are more open teams who will be trying to race their way into the Daytona 500 than last year, but I still think this race will be tamer than the Daytona 500.
The strategy for Superspeedways races is to pick drivers who start in the back and hope they score a lot of place differential points. That will NOT be my strategy tonight. I expect the drivers to stay in line for the majority of the Duel Races. My strategy will be to pick drivers who can finish in the top-10, regardless of their starting position. All of the drivers will have a lot of ownership since there are only 21 cars in each race. We need to find the drivers who finish in the top-10 and have a bit lower ownership than the chalk plays.
These tame races have produced two dominators in each race. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano combined to lead 59 of the 60 laps in the first Duel Race last year. Kyle Busch and Aric Almirola combined to lead 45 of the 60 laps in Duel Race No. 2 last year. Joey Logano scored 54.7 DraftKings Points and Ryan Blaney scored 57.85 DraftKings Points in Duel one. Kyle Busch only scored 17.45 DraftKings Points because he lost the draft in Duel 2. Aric Almirola scored 51.15 DraftKings Points. We can use some dominators tonight and that should make our lineups a bit contrarian (but not in Cash Contests).
DUEL RACE 1 LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS DUAL RACE 1 LINEUP
I want my lineup to tell a story. Joey Logano has his spot on the front row in the Daytona 500 secured. I expect the No. 22 team will want to shake down their car to see what they have for Sunday’s race. Logano will lead a portion of the race early, before dropping out and either going to the back or to the garage. Chase Elliott should take over and dominate the race once Logano is removed. I will stack Elliott with his teammate Alex Bowman. They are a lot better in the draft than Kyle Larson. There are two “wild-cards” in Duel 1. Austin Dillon and Ross Chastain will try to get to the front and lead most of the laps. I want to pair one of them with Elliott in my lineups. I will use Chastain in this lineup, and I will use Dillon in some others. The Toyota’s did not set up their new Camry XSE car for speed in qualifying. They wanted handling for the race. Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones should work together to get to the front. I like playing the Toyota Stack (You can substitute Ty Gibbs for Erik Jones in some lineups). Duel Race 1 should be a battle between the Chevy’s and Toyota’s.
DUEL RACE 2 LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS DUAL RACE 2 LINEUP
My lineup for Duel Race 2 will also tell a story. Michael McDowell will not run up front as long as Joey Logano will in his Duel Race. I expect McDowell to drop to the back or go to the garage early in the race. That will open the door for Austin Cindric, William Byron or Kyle Busch to take over as the race leader. I will use Busch since he dominated Duel Race 2 last year the 5th starting spot. Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and John H. Nemechek are going to be the chalk from the back of the field. I am going to pivot to the Fords and play Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, David Ragan and Zane Smith. Blaney and Keselowski have a history of dominating the Duel races. I expect these two Ford drivers to work well with David Ragan tonight. Zane Smith started 15th and finished 8th in his Duel Race last year. He also finished 13th in the Daytona 500. I like Smith coming from the back and hooking up with the other Ford drivers.
Good Luck tonight!
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