The Cup Series will continue their playoffs this week with a trip to the Heartland to race at Kansas Speedway. The Cup Series schedule used to be filled with 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. The race Sunday will only be the fourth race of the season on a 1.5-mile track this year (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte were the others). Each of these races put on a good show and I expect the same at Kansas. The Hollywood Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network.
STRATEGY FOR KANSAS
I am quickly running out of allocations with my top drivers in Group B. There are only nine races left in the playoffs and one is at a road course (Charlotte Roval), one is on a Superspeedway (Talladega) and then we have Bristol and Martinsville. We can get through those races without use Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch (except Bristol), Kevin Harvick and Tyler Reddick. I want to have these four drivers available for Kansas, Texas, Las Vegas and Homestead. My strategy this week is to play the best drivers in Group A (I am not too worried about allocations in that Group since the talent is so deep), play the top drivers in Group B and try to get through Group C with Ty Gibbs only used for qualifying points (like I did last week at Darlington).
Here are the picks for the Hollywood Casino 400 …
GROUP A DRIVERS
KYLE LARSON (5): Larson dominated the race at Kansas in May. The No. 5 car won the pole, scored Stage Points in both Stages, led the most laps (85) and finished second. Larson’s good run in the Heartland should not be a surprise to anyone. He has finished either first or second in three of the last four races run at Kansas Speedway. Larson has momentum after his win at Darlington. I would not be surprised to see “Yung Money” win the first two races in the playoffs.
DENNY HAMLIN (5): Kansas Speedway is the best 1.5-mile intermediate track for Hendrick Motorsports. I thought about using two drivers from HMS in Group A, but I decided to pair Hamlin with Kyle Larson. Hamlin has been a beast at Kansas. He won the race in the Heartland in May and he finished second in the playoff race at Kansas last year. Hamlin should have won last week at Darlington. He will have another good chance to win Sunday “if” the No. 11 team can avoid mistakes.
(OTHER PICK) WILLIAM BYRON (2): Byron is the best driver to pair with Kyle Larson if you do not have many allocations left with Denny Hamlin. Byron won the pole at Kansas in May. He also led 10-laps and finished third (behind Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson). Byron won the race at Las Vegas, finished second at Charlotte and third at Kansas this year. Those are some pretty good results on the 1.5-mile tracks. You cannot go wrong with Larson, Hamlin or Byron in your lineup Sunday at Kansas.
GROUP A DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Kyle Larson 2) Denny Hamlin 3) William Byron 4) Christopher Bell 5) Ryan Blaney 6) Joey Logano 7) Chase Elliott 8) Ross Chastain
GROUP B DRIVERS
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (1): I only have one allocation left with Truex. I am going to keep selecting Truex for my team and I will not use him until he dominates practice and qualifies up front. That could happen this weekend. Truex has finished his last eight races at Kansas in the top-10. His average finishing position in those races is sixth. I am not sure I will use Truex Sunday, but I at least want to have him available if he dominates the on-track activity Saturday.
BUBBA WALLACE (4): Wallace surprised the Cup Series when he won the playoff race at Kansas last year. The race was not a fluke. Wallace led 58 laps and he scored 13 Stage Points on his way to Victory Lane. Wallace came back to Kansas in May and qualified fourth and finished eighth. Kansas is by far the best intermediate track for Wallace. I plan to use him in the race Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK (3): Kansas Speedway is a progressively banked track. That means there are many different lanes to race in and the drivers must search the track for grip as their tires wear out. Typically the field runs up against the wall at the end of a fuel run at Kansas. This type of racing fits Reddick’s driving style perfectly. He qualified fifth and finished ninth at Kansas in May. I expect a similar race from the No. 45 team Sunday.
CHIRS BUESCHER (7): I am throwing the stats for Buescher out the window this week. I have been fading him this year because his stats at most of the tracks have sucked. It doesn’t matter this year. The No. 17 team is the hottest team in the playoffs. The stats suggest Buescher will struggle this week. I am not buying it. He has been too good to fade over the last month.
(OTHER PICK) KYLE BUSCH (2): There is no driver in the field who is more “boom or bust” at Kansas than Busch. Rowdy finished 35th (accident), 26th (engine), 3rd, 28th (accident), 1st and 5th in his last six races at Kansas. Busch is going to be fast this weekend. Can he bring the car home in one piece? Busch will likely finish in the top-five if he does not wreck. Rowdy should be a good pick if you trust him this week.
GROUP B DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Martin Truex Jr. 2) Bubba Wallace 3) Tyler Reddick 4) Chris Buescher 5) Kyle Busch 6) Kevin Harvick 7) Brad Keselowski 8) Alex Bowman 9) Daniel Suarez 10) Michael McDowell
GROUP C DRIVERS
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (5): Can we squeeze another allocation out of Stenhouse and save Ty Gibbs for other races? I sure hope so. Stenhouse had a good race at Kansas in May. He started in the back because he got loose in qualifying, but Stenhouse was able to rally for a 12th-place finish. Stenhouse also finished eighth at Kansas last year. Stenhosue is still alive in the playoffs, so he has a lot to race for. I will take a chance with the No. 47 car Sunday.
TY GIBBS (4): I would love to save Gibbs for other tracks, but I doubt it will happen. Joe Gibbs Racing has found a lot of speed over the summer and their cars have been fast. Gibbs has not been great this year on the 1.5-mile tracks, but he has been the best in Group C. I want to use Gibbs for qualifying points only, but I will use him in the race if Ricky Stenhouse Jr. struggles in practice.
(OTHER CHOICE) AJ ALLMENDINGER (3): Allmendinger should be your choice if you do not trust Ricky Stenhouse Jr. or if you are running low with your allocations with Ty Gibbs. Allmendinger had a similar race to what Stenhouse had at Kansas in May. Allmendinger qualified 27th and finished 14th. He also finished 14th at Charlotte and 18th at Las Vegas. Allmendinger is a safe pick for a finish between 12th and 18th place Sunday.
GROUP C DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Ty Gibbs 2) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 3) AJ Allmendinger 4) Corey Lajoie 5) Carson Hocevar
* Be sure to check back Sunday morning for my starting lineup.
TRUCK SERIES PICKS
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