The Cup Series will join the Xfinity Series and Truck Series at Pocono Raceway this weekend. Mother Nature has not been a fan of summer racing. The Cup Series had rain at Chicago, rain at Atlanta and rain at New Hampshire. Hopefully the track can stay dry this week, but it seems like Pocono races get moved to Monday more than any other track. So far the weather looks good for this weekend. The HighPoint.com 400 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network and streamed on the NBC Sports App.
STRATEGY FOR POCONO
Pocono is one of the toughest tracks to predict. It is a unique triangle-shaped track that has long straightaway’s and rolling corners. There is no other track on the schedule to compare it too. The Cup Series will be using the intermediate track aero package, so we can look at the data from the race at Auto Club and the races at the 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte) this year.
I am focusing on the driver’s history at Pocono for my lineups this week. The Tricky Triangle has three distinct corners which make it tough on crew chiefs. If they get the balance right in our corner, it typically causes the car to lose speed in another corner. Some crew chiefs have figured this track out and their drivers always perform well at Pocono. I will use some of the data from the large intermediate tracks (Auto Club, Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte) and I will add it to the data from the previous races at Pocono.
We have to start saving some allocations with our top drivers in the Driver Group Game. It will be tough to win without Denny Hamlin and one of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers in Group A (Kyle Larson, William Byron or Chase Elliott) in our lineup. I would like to save Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick for smaller tracks, but I cannot do it. They have been two of the best drivers in Group B at Pocono. I really wish Michael McDowell was in Group C, because he has been good this summer and Pocono is a good track for him. I will use Ty Gibbs and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at the Tricky Triangle.
Here are the picks for the HighPoint.com 400 …
GROUP A DRIVERS
DENNY HAMLIN (7): Hamlin leads the Cup Series with six wins at Pocono. He swept the races in his rookie season (2006). Hamlin won this race last year, but his car was DQ’d in post-race inspection. Hamlin would have an average finishing position of 3.8 in his last six races at Pocono if his car passed inspection last year. Joe Gibbs Racing is usually good at the Tricky Triangle and Hamlin is usually their best driver. He should be the best choice in Group A Sunday.
KYLE LARSON (6): The race Sunday should be a battle between Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick Motorsports and Kyle Busch. I want to pair a Hendrick Motorsports driver with Denny Hamlin in Group A, so I decided to go with the No. 5 car. Larson leads the Cup Series with a 5.3 average finishing position in the last three races at Pocono. He has also been the best at qualifying, so Larson will have a good chance to score bonus points for his starting position Sunday.
(CONTRARIAN PICK) RYAN BLANEY (7): Blaney won his first race in the Cup Series at Pocono in 2017. He has finished two of his last three races at the Tricky Triangle in the top-six. Blaney won the last race on an intermediate track using the current aero package at Charlotte. I doubt many people in your league will use Blaney. He will be a good choice if you want to save an allocation with Kyle Larson.
GROUP A DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Denny Hamlin 2) Kyle Larson 3) William Byron 4) Ryan Blaney 5) Chase Elliott 6) Christopher Bell 7) Ross Chastain 8) Joey Logano
GROUP B DRIVERS
KYLE BSUCH (4): Busch will have a great chance to win the race at Pocono Sunday. He lead the most laps and finished second in this race last year, but his car failed post-race inspection. Busch also finished first and second in his two races at the Tricky Triangle in 2021. Busch has finished six of his last 10 races at Pocono in the top-three, but it really should be seven of his last 10, without the DQ last year. Rowdy is clearly the best choice in Group B Sunday.
KEVIN HARVICK (5): Harvick was running in the fourth position last year when he was caught up in the Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin feud. He likely would have finished the race in the top-five. Harvick finished 11 of the last 13 races at Pocono in the top-10. He has the fourth-best average finishing position at the intermediate tracks where the current aero package has been used this year (Auto Club, Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte). The No. 4 car should be fastest again Sunday.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (1): I am running low with my allocations with Truex, but he has been too good this summer to fade. He was also good at Pocono last year when he finished seventh in the race. Truex should be even better this season. Truex has the best average finishing position in the races on the large intermediate tracks (Auto Club, Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte). Truex has not won at Pocono since 2018, but I would not be surprised to see the No. 19 car in Victory Lane Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (5): Pocono has been a good track for Keselowski. He has an average finishing position of 8.3 at the Tricky Triangle in his last 13 races. That is a large sample size, with a lot of success. I thought about using Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace or Alex Bowman, but I will trust Keselowski’s track history this week and play the No. 6 car.
(CONTRARIAN PICK) ALEX BOWMAN (8): The stats suggest Bowman will be a top-10 pick this week, but I do not trust him. Bowman has an average finishing position 6.8 in his last four starts at the Tricky Triangle. Most of us have plenty of allocations left with Bowman. I do not have the guts to use Bowman based on his performance since his return from his injury, but maybe he will run well Sunday.
GROUP B DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Kyle Busch 2) Martin Truex Jr. 3) Kevin Harvick 4) Brad Kesolowski 5) Tyler Reddick 6) Alex Bowman 7) Daniel Suarez 8) Bubba Wallace 9) Chris Buescher 10) Michael McDowell
GROUP C DRIVERS
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (7): Stenhouse is having a career season. I plan to play him Sunday at Pocono. He finished 18th at the Tricky Triangle last year and Stenhouse should have a good chance to finish inside the top-15 Sunday. He finished 12th at Auto Club, 12th at Kansas and 7th at Charlotte while using the current aero package. This is a good race to use an allocation with the No. 47 car.
TY GIBBS (6): Gibbs will be fast Sunday. All of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars will be fast at Pocono. I plan to use Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in the race and I will have Gibbs in my lineup for qualifying points. I plan to save the No. 54 car for the smaller tracks, but I will have him ready to go if something happens to Stenhouse during practice or qualifying.
(OTHER CHOICE) AJ ALLMENDINGER (4): Allmendinger has not competed in a Cup Series race at Pocono since his 14th-place finish at the Tricky Triangle in 2018. I doubt he forgot how to get around this track. Allmendinger finished 18th at Las Vegas, 14th at Kansas and 14th at Charlotte while using the current aero package. I am saving Allmendinger for the road courses, but he should be one of the best picks in Group C Sunday.
GROUP C DRIVER RANKINGS: 1) Ty Gibbs 2) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 3) AJ Allmendinger 4) Ryan Preece 5) Corey LaJoie
* Be sure to check back Sunday morning for my starting lineup.
TRUCK SERIES PICKS
XFINITY SERIES PICKS
Good Luck This Weekend!
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