The PGA Tour will make the short trip from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida to Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. There are eight “signature events” on the schedule in 2025 and the Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth signature event this year. That means the winner will receive $4M and the field will be stacked. 47 of the top 50 golfers in the World Golf Rankings will tee it up this week. There are only 70 golfers in the field and just like the Genesis Invitational; there will be a cut after Saturday’s third-round. The field will be trimmed to the top-50, plus ties and any golfer who is within 10 shots of the lead. Last year 62 of the 70 golfers made the cut, so this is almost a no-cut event. It should be a fun week to play a DFS Contest.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
Bay Hill Club and Lodge will play 7,419 yards in length and is a par 72. The course was called “The best course in Florida” by Arnold Palmer. He loved it so much that he decided to purchase it. He made some adjustments and now it has some of the best closing holes in golf.
Arnold Palmer always said that he wanted his tournament to play like the U.S. Open. We can expect deep rough and fast greens. My friend Jason Sobel said on his show on Sirius XM Golf Channel (Inside the Ropes), “The most important stat at Bay Hill is Total Driving. This combines length off-the-tee and accuracy. The last three tournaments saw 92% of the golfers who finished in the top-five, also finished in the top-10 in Total Driving. The three winners also led the field in scrambling because on 58% of the field hits the greens in regulation.” So Total Driving + Scrambling are the secret to success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler lead the field in both categories.
Click here to see the course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
KEY STATS FOR ARNOLD PALMER
– Total Driving
– Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
– Scrambling
– Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda)
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form
TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS
CORE GOLFERS FOR ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
DFS STRATEGIES FOR ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
Scottie Scheffler is expensive this week, but I do not care. I am all in with Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. They are clearly the two best golfers in the field and Bay Hill is their best course. I would love to see a shoot-out between these two stars this weekend and we just may get it. I will use Scheffler and McIlory in 50% each in my tournament lineups.
I will also have a lot of shares of Luvid Aberg. He is a cheaper version of Scottie Scheffler. I will pair him with Rory McIlory and Scheffler at the top and then mix in a lot of the golfers from the lower price ranges.
Rory McIlroy is my favorite golfer to start your Cash Contest lineups with. He is in some of the best form of his career and he leads the PGA Tour in strokes gain tee-to-green at Bay Hill. It will be pretty easy to build some stud Cash Contest lineups using McIlory at the top and the golfers listed in my “Core Golfers” to finish the lineups.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
RORY MCILROY ($10,800): I know a lot of people will start their Cash Contest lineups with Scottie Scheffler, but I like McIlroy a bit more and it saves us $1,200. McIlroy is playing some of his best golf right now. He won the signature event at Pebble Beach and he leads the field in Total Driving (my No. 1 stat this week). McIlroy has six finishes in the top-10 in his last eight trips to Bay Hill. He is my pick to win Sunday and my pick to lead my Cash Contest lineup.
JUSTIN THOMAS ($9,400): Thomas is another golfer who checks all of the boxes this week. He finished 2nd at the American Express, 6th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and 9th at the Genesis Invitational. His form is very good right now. Thomas finished 12th last year and 21st in 2023 at the API, so his course history is good. Thomas also ranks No. 5 in the Key Stats, so the numbers are on his side. Paring Thomas with Rory McIlroy gives me a lot of firepower at the top of my Cash Contest lineup this week.
SHANE LOWRY ($8,200): Lowry does two things very well…. He plays tough course well because he is so good at staying out of trouble and he plays his best golf in Florida on Bermuda Greens. Lowry led the first three rounds of the API last year before finishing 3rd. I would not be surprised to see similar results from the Irishman Sunday.
BEN GRIFFIN ($7,600): There are a lot of good choices in the mid-$7K price range, but Griffin is the golfer I like the most. He finished 4th at the Mexico Open two weeks ago and 4th last week at the Cognizant Classic. His form right now is very good. He ranks No. 2 in SG Putting (Bermuda Greens), so I just need him to get it from the tee to the green. That should be no problem for Griffin. He ranks No. 9 in SG Tee-to-Green over the last 16 rounds. Griffin should play well at Bay Hill.
SAHITH THEEGALA ($7,400): Do I trust the numbers, or do I trust my gut feeling? I am not confident about Theegala, because he has burned me many times, but the numbers love him this week. Theegala has not missed a cut all season (9 for 9). He finished 6th last year and 14th in 2023 at the API, so his course history is good too. Theegala ranks 18th in the Key Stats, so he should finish inside the top-20. My gut said to play THOMAS DETRY, but I will trust the numbers and play Theegala.
HARRIS ENGLISH ($6,600): I typically do not dip into the mid-$6K price range for golfers for my Cash Contest lineups, but we typically do not have a golfer who won four weeks ago (Farmers Insurance Open) and has made six cuts in a row at the current tournament. That is what we have with Harris this week. He is the most under-priced golfer in the field, so I will ignore his price and click on his name for my Cash Contest lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
LUDVIG ABERG ($9,900): You need to fade Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy is you are playing a single-entry contest. Those two golfers will have nearly 50% ownership, so I like pivoting to Aberg. He is a much cheaper version of Scheffler and may be on his way to becoming the No. 1 player in the world. He ranks No. 3 in the key stats and No. 2 (behind Rory McIlroy) in Total Driving. Aberg has a great chance to win Sunday.
RUSSELL HENLEY ($8,800): We need golfers, who are accurate off the tee, can scramble around the greens and putt on Bermuda Greens. Henley checks all of the boxes. He ranks No. 6 in Accuracy Off-the-Tee, No. 6 in Scrambling, No. 3 in SG Putting (Bermuda Greens) and No. 6 overall in the Key Stats. Henley finished 4th in this tournament last year. His form is good enough to do it again Sunday.
DANIEL BERGER ($8,500): I heard some people talk about fading Berger this week because of his meltdown on the back nine last Sunday. The Golf Channel reported that Berger had a stomach bug and he had a hard time making it through the round. Berger should be healthy this week and that means we should be getting the golfer who finished 2nd at the WMPO and 12th in the signature event at Torrey Pines. I really hope Berger loses some ownership this week.
SHANE LOWRY ($8,200): I will play Lowry in both lineups at Bay Hill. He is a stud when it comes to golf in Florida and he is about the safest golfer in the $8K price range to finish in the top-10. I would probably pivot to a lesser-owned VIKTOR HOVLAND in Multi-Entry Tournament Lineups, but I like Lowry for Single-Entry lineups and Cash games this week.
AKSHAY BHATIA ($7,800): Bhatia is slowly becoming a star on the PGA Tour. He finished 9th in the signature event at Torrey Pines and then 9th again two weeks ago in Mexico. Bhatia ranks No. 12 in Accuracy Off-the-Tee, No. 14 in Total Driving, No. 14 in Scrambling, No. 7 in SG Putting (Bermuda Greens) and No. 10 overall in the Key Stats. He does not have any course history and that should lower his ownership. He is a solid golfer with a lot of upside this week.
NICK TAYLOR ($6,700): The two golfers I will have the most ownership with in the $6K price range are Nick Taylor and Harris English. Taylor ranks No. 5 in Total Driving, No. 1 in SG Approach, No. 20 in Scrambling, No. 9 in SG Putting (Bermuda Greens) and No. 5 overall in the Key Stats. I just cannot pass up stats like that for only $6,700.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (Multi Entry Lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the last tournament in Segment 1. Simply use the best team possible this week. There is no need to save allocations for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: RORY MCILROY (API)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Shane Lowry (11TH), Akshay Bhatia (9TH), Collin Morikawa (17th), Tom Kim (44th), Patrick Cantlay (33rd), Jason Day (32nd), Sungjae Im (MC), Corey Conners (MC)
SEASON-LONG ONE & DONE PICK: LUDVIG ABERG (API)
– One & Done picks used so far this season: Daniel Berger (25TH), Patrick Rodgers (25TH), Taylor Pendrith (50th), Nick Taylor (25th), Collin Morikawa (17th), Jason Day (32nd), Russell Henley (10th), (Sungjae Im (3rd), Ben Griffin (15th), Nico Echavarria (29TH), Harris English (14TH), Beau Hossler (56TH), Tom Kim (MC), Keith Mitchell (MC), Ben Griffin (37th)
BEST BETS FOR ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
LUDVIG ABERG (16-1)
JUSTIN THOMAS (25-1)
SHANE LOWRY (45-1)
RUSSELL HENLEY (45-1)
JASON DAY (70-1)
BEN GRIFFIN (70-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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