The PGA Tour heads to the Quad Cities right outside of Davenport, Iowa this week for the John Deere Classic. This tournament is always one of the worst on the schedule. It is not because TPC Deere Run is a bad course; but because of the placement of the tournament on the PGA Schedule. The John Deere Classic is usually played right before the Scottish Open. Most of the golfers want to head overseas to get adjusted to the time change and get some practice on the links course so they skip the John Deere Classic to get ready for the Scottish Open next week and the Open Championship in two weeks. That is the case once again this year.
I like watching the best golfers in the world play. I have little interest watching a bunch of scrubs competing for a spot in the Open Championship. I will cut back my play significantly for this tournament and save the extra money for the Open Championship in a few weeks.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
TPC Deere Run will be the host course this week. It plays 7,268 yards in length and is a par 71. The course is pretty easy. The par 4’s are pretty short and the fairways are wide. There is no water to be concerned with but there are a lot of bunkers to make it somewhat challenging. This is definitely a week when the short hitters can score well as long as their wedge game is in form. I expect some low scores from the golfers and some high scores in DFS.
Click here to see the course: TPC Deere Run
JOHN DEERE KEY STATS
– Stroke Gained Off the Tee
– Strokes Gained Approach
– Par 4 Scoring 350 – 450 Yards
– Birdie or Better %
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form
TOP 30 GOLFERS
CORE GOLFERS FOR JOHN DEERE
JOHN DEERE STRATEGY
Strategy for lineup construction will be tricky this week. I read on the DK Nation website that the winning lineup for the John Deere Classic the last two years spent all $50K of the salary cap and had all six golfers with double-digit ownership. In 2021 the winning lineup had six golfers priced between $7.6K and $8K and most of the golfers had single-digit ownership. So this tells us that “stars and scrubs” and a “balanced lineup” should work this week. I plan to build more “stars and scrubs” lineups because I trust the higher priced golfers more this week and there is not much difference between the golfers priced in the Mid-$7K range and the golfers in the high-$6K range.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
BEN GRIFFIN ($10,400): I have been using Griffin in my Cash Contest lineups for two months now. Why stop now? The floor for Griifin is about a 15th-place finish. The Ceiling for Griffin is a win. He ranks No. 1 in the Key Stats, No. 1 in recent form and he finished 5th in the John Deere Classic last year. Griffin should have been the highest priced golfer in DFS this week, so I will take the discount.
MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN ($9,100): Thorbjornsen checks all of the boxes this week. He nearly won last week in Detroit (Thorbjornsen finished 4th), so his form is good. He finished 2nd (2024) and 17th (2023) in his last two trips to TPC Deere Run. He also ranks No. 8 in the Key Stats. I expect Thorbjornsen to be near the top of the leaderboard again Sunday.
ALEX SMALLEY ($7,900): As some of you know, I like to consult my friend Jake Seely (@CutterMakerJeff) since he is one of the best Professional Golf Betters in Las Vegas. He likes Smalley this week and I can see why. Smalley ranks No. 1 in the field on easy courses. He finished 11th in the American Express, 10th in Mexico and 5th at Myrtle Beach (all easy courses). Smalley should have won this tournament in 2023 but he finished 2nd to Sepp Straka. I like his chances of playing well in the Quad Cities.
MARK HUBBARD ($7,700): Hubbard is another golfer who checks all of the boxes this week. He has made 6 of his last 7 cuts. His only missed cut came at the U.S. Open, so I will not hold that against him. Hubbard also finished 32nd, 6th, 13th and 41st in his last four trips to TPC Deere Run. Hubbard ranks No. 3 in the Key Stats this week, so he gets a spot in my Cash Contest lineup.
EMILIANO GRILLO ($7,500): I played Grillo in my Cash Contest lineup last weekand he barely made the cut. I will go back to him at the John Deere Classic. The stats love Grillo this week. He ranks No. 6 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 5 in SG Approach and No. 6 overall in the Key Stats. Grillo finished 2nd in this tournament in 2022, so he knows the course well. I expect Grillo to bounce back after his mediocre performance last week in Detroit.
KEVIN ROY ($7,400): Roy is my favorite golfer in the low-$7K price range. He has made every cut dating back to March (7 in a row). That includes and 18th-place finish three weeks ago in Canada and an 8th-place finish last week. Roy also finished 22nd in his only trip to TPC Deere Run. He ranks No. 9 in the Key Stats, so Roy has all of the arrows pointing to the top of the leaderboard Sunday.
* ZACH JOHNSON ($6,900) is also in play for Cash Contests this week. Johnson has made 26/27 cuts on his home course in the Quad Cities. I will have a few lineups with Johnson this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
** I have it written in my notes for this tournament to focus on Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation %. I am building “The Bombers Delight” lineup for the Tournament Lineup. I am hoping that the good weather will allow these golfers to smash it off-the-tee and their good wedges to give them a lot of birdie chances at TPC Deere Run.
JAKE KNAPP ($9,400): I do not have Knapp listed in my core golfers because I cannot play everyone in the $9K price range this week. I do love Knapp for “The Bombers Delight” lineup. Knapp ranks No. 9 in distance off-the-tee and No. 18% in Greens in Regulation %. Knapp finished 4th last week. I like his chances of scoring well again in the Quad Cities.
CHRIS GOTTERUP ($9,300): When I ran the stats and did my research for this tournament I immediately thought… “Well damn, Gotterup should win this thing.” He ranks No. 5 in Distance Off-the-Tee, No. 2 in Greens in Regulation %, No. 1 in SG Off-the-Tee and No. 2 (behind Ben Griffen) in the overall Key Stats. Gotterup finished 4th in this tournament in 2022. He has a great chance to win Sunday.
KEVIN YU ($8,800): Yu is not really a bomber, but I will grade him on a curve this week because this is not a long course. Yu ranks No. 28 in Distance Off-the-Tee and No. 31 in Greens in Regulations %. He also ranks No. 8 overall in the Key Stats. Yu has popped up at the top of the leaderboard a few times over the last two months (3rd in Canada and 4th at Myrtle Beach). He finished 6th and 21st in his last two trips to TPC Deere Run, so he gets a spot in my lineup too.
ALDRICH POTGIETER ($7,900): Potgieter is a bomber who won last week and he finished 6th in his previous tournament at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Can he do it again? I think so…. Potgieter ranks No. 1 in Driving Distance and No. 38 in Greens in Regulation %. He also ranks No. 7 overall in the Key Stats. Most people fade a golfer after he wins a tournament. I will take a chance with a lower-owned Potgieter this week.
KEVIN ROY ($7,400): I will have Roy in both lineups this week because he checks the boxes for both Cash and Tournament Contest lineups. Roy has the consistency to be a good play for Cash Contest lineups. He ranks 24th in Distance Off-the-Tee and 12th in Greens in Regulation %, so he checks the boxes for “The Bombers Delight” lineup.” I haven’t used Roy much in DFS, but he really popped in the stats this week.
CAMERON CHAMP ($7,200): Champ is another golfer who fits “The Bombers Delight” profile. Champ ranks No. 4 in Driving Distance and No. 1 in Greens in Regulation %. He has finished 11th, MC, 51st and MC in his last four trips to TPC Deere Run. The trend suggests he should make the cut this year. Champ is in better form this year than he was in those previous tournaments. Champ finished 9th three weeks ago in Canada and 19th last week in Detroit. I will take a chance with this bomber in the Quad Cities.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contests: (Multi Entry Lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the fifth tournament in Segment 3. This is the toughest Segment to navigate. We have two majors (U.S. Open and the Open Championship), one Signature Event (Travelers Championship) and the PGA Playoffs (St. Jude, BMW Championship and Tour Championship). That is a lot of stacked tournaments requiring our top golfers, so make your picks wisely this week.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: CHRIS GOTTERUP (JOHN DEERE)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Cameron Young (46TH), Ben Griffin (14TH), Joaquin Niemann (MC), Taylor Pendrith (27th), Xander Schauffele (25th), Harris English (53rd), Bryon DeChambeau (2ND ), Justin Thomas (2nd), Byeong-Hun An (60th), Daniel Berger (3rd), Jon Rahm (14TH), Keegan Bradley (47TH), Aaron Rai (MC), Tommy Fleetwood (16TH), Scottie Scheffler (20th), Rory McIlroy (15th), Shane Lowry (11TH), Akshay Bhatia (9TH), Collin Morikawa (17th), Tom Kim (44th), Patrick Cantlay (33rd), Jason Day (32nd), Sungjae Im (MC), Corey Conners (MC)
SEASON-LONG ONE & DONE PICK: DENNY MCCARTHY (JOHN DEERE)
– One & Done picks used so far this season: Keegan Bradley (41ST), Xander Schauffele (61ST), Bryson DeChambeau (MC), Sam Burns (2nd), Sepp Straka (3rd), Aaron Rai (MC), Rory McIlroy (47TH), Justin Thomas (2nd), Sungjae Im (33rd), Thomas Detry (32ND), Patrick Cantlay (13th), Jon Rahm 14TH), Akshay Bhatia (MC), J.J. Spaun (MC), Corey Conners (8TH), Scottie Scheffler (20th), Ludvig Aberg (22nd), Daniel Berger (25TH), Patrick Rodgers (25TH), Taylor Pendrith (50th), Nick Taylor (25th), Collin Morikawa (17th), Jason Day (32nd), Russell Henley (10th), (Sungjae Im (3rd), Ben Griffin (15th), Nico Echavarria (29TH), Harris English (14TH), Beau Hossler (56TH), Tom Kim (MC), Keith Mitchell (MC)
BEST BETS FOR THE JOHN DEERE
BEN GRIFFIN +1600
DENNY MCCARTHY +2800
CHRIS GOTTERUP +3500
ALEX SMALLEY +4500
MARK HUBBARD +5000
KEVIN ROY +6000
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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