The PGA Tour heads to the Quad Cities right outside of Davenport, Iowa this week for the John Deere Classic. This tournament is always one of the worst on the schedule. It is not because TPC Deere Run is a bad course; but because of the placement of the tournament on the PGA Schedule. The John Deere Classic is usually played before the golfers head overseas for the Scottish Open and the Open Championship.
I like watching the best golfers in the world play. I have little interest watching a bunch of scrubs competing for a spot in the Open Championship. I will cut back my play significantly for this tournament and save the extra money for the Open Championship next week.
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form
COURSE BREAKDOWN
TPC Deere Run will be the host course this week. It plays 7,268 yards in length and is a par 71. The course is pretty easy. The par 4’s are pretty short and the fairways are wide. There is no water to be concerned with, but there are a lot of bunkers to make it somewhat challenging. This is definitely a week when the short hitters can score well as long as their wedge game is in form. I expect some low scores from the golfers and some high scores in DFS.
Click here to see the course: TPC Deere Run
KEY STATS FOR JOHN DEERE
– Stroke Gained Off the Tee
– Strokes Gained Approach
– Greens in Regulation
– Birdie or Better %
TOP 30 GOLFERS
STRATEGY FOR THE JOHN DEERE CLASSIC
When I looked at my notes for the John Deere Classic, I noticed that course history does not matter as much at TPC Deere Run as it does at other courses on the schedule. This is an easy tournament to score a lot of birdies, so even golfers who have never played this tournament can show up and post a low score. I will be focusing in Shots Gained Approach, Proximity to the Hole and Greens in Regulation. The last three winners of the John Deere Classic have all scored highly in those categories.
My strategy for Cash Contest lineups is to use golfers who are in good form and are dialed in with the short irons. I do not care if I spend all of the salary or if I leave some salary on the table this week. I just want six good ball-strikers, who are in good form.
My strategy for Tournament Contests will be to leave some salary on the table. The winning lineup in the $3 Birdie Contest over the last three years average $600 left on the table. The field is not very strong this week, so there is no need to build stars and scrubs lineups.
CORE GOLFERS FOR JOHN DEERE
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
RUSSELL HENLEY ($10,400): Henley is my pick to win this week. His tee-to-green game is the best in the field. Henley ranks No. 5 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 3 in Shots Gained Approach, No. 4 in Greens in Regulation and No. 1 in Proximity to the Hole. Henley finished second in this tournament in 2019. He is going to be tough to beat this week.
ALEX SMALLEY ($8,900): I wanted to use Emiliano Grillo in this spot, but I could not fit him into the lineup. I will pivot to another golfer who is in fantastic form and has a great tee-to-green game. Smalley has made six of his last seven cuts. He ranks No. 7 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 5 in Shot Gained Approach and No. 9 in Greens in Regulation. Smalley finished 16th in this tournament last year. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-10 Sunday.
DOUG GHIM ($8,000): I play Ghim in my Cash Contest lineup last week at $7,400 and he rewarded me with a 33rd-place finish and a made cut. Ghim has now made all of his cuts since April (5 for 5). He ranked No. 1 in the field in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 7 in Shots Gained Approach and No. 1 in Greens in Regulation. Ghim should be a safe play with the upside to win Sunday.
CHEZ REAVIE ($7,700): Reavie is my favorite play from the $7K price range this week. He ranks No. 17 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 4 in Shots Gained Approach, No. 8 in Greens in Regulation and No. 3 in Proximity to the Hole. The only downside with Reavie in his career has been his putter, but Reavie ranks No. 16 in Shots Gained Putting entering the John Deere Classic. I will bet Reavie to win Sunday.
MARK HUBBARD ($7,700): This is the pick that makes me a bit worried. Hubbard has missed his last two cuts, but they were by one shot. The key stats love Hubbard this week, so I will trust the numbers. Hubbard ranks No. 1 in the field in Shots Gained Approach and No. 6 in Proximity to the Hole. He also ranks No. 12 in Birdie or Better %. I expect Hubbard to bounce back this week and be a good play for all types of contests.
CALLUM TARREN ($7,300): I played Tarren in my Tournament Contest last week and he rewarded me with a 29th-place finish. Now, I will play Tarren in my Cash Contest lineup. He has made five of his last six cuts. He ranks No. 11 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 34 in Shots Gained Approach and No. 18 in Greens in Regulation. Tarren finished sixth in this tournament last year. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-10 again this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
ERIC COLE ($9,700): I will fade the $10K+ price range and start my Tournament Contest lineup with Cole. He only ranks No. 29 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green and No. 23 in Shots Gained Approach, but his putter could win him this tournament. Cole ranks No. 1 in Shots Gained Putting this week and No. 1 in Birdie or Better %. The scores are going to be low in Iowa, and Cole knows how to stack his card with circles.
EMILIANO GRILLO ($9,200): There is a lot to like about Grillo for the John Deere Classic. He ranks No. 4 in the key stats, he won on a similar type of event (the Charles Schwab Challenge), he just finished 15th last week in a stacked field and he finished second in this tournament last year. Grillo has the stats and form of a golfer in the $10K price range, but we get him for $9,200. I will take the discount and play Grillo this week.
STEPHAN JAEGER ($8,800): I like a golfer who has a great chance to make the cut, with the upside for a top-10 finish. Jaeger checks both boxes. He has made eight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour. He should easily make the cut this week. Jaegar ranks 18th in the key stats and No. 8 in the non-elevated tournaments. I would not be surprised if Jaegar was near the top of the leaderboard Sunday.
MICHAEL KIM ($7,600): Kim won this tournament in 2018 and followed it up with two missed cuts (in 2019 and 2020). So which Kim will we get this week? Kim has made 9 of his last 11 cuts. He ranks No. 25 in the key stats. Kim has been good in the tournaments with a weak field. I will roll the dice with him this week.
DYLAN WU ($7,500): Wu lit up the scoreboard in the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week when he shot a 65. I am hoping that momentum carries over into the John Deere Classic. Wu ranks No. 17 in the key stats and he has finished three of his last four tournaments in the top-32. This pick is more of a gut feeling than anything else.
CARSON YOUNG ($7,200): The more I researched the golfers for this tournament, the more I like Young. He ranks No. 15 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 22 in Shots Gained Approach, No. 32 in Greens in Regulation and No. 24 in Proximity to the Hole. These stats should translate into a top-20 finish for a golfer at $7,200. That sounds good to me.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (Tournament Contest Lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the fifth tournament of Segment 4. This is the toughest Segment to navigate because there are two majors (U.S. Open and the Open Championship), one elevated event (Travelers Championship) and four FedEx Playoff Tournaments). Use your golfers wisely.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: RUSSELL HENLEY (JOHN DEERE)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Rickie Fowler (Win), Scottie Scheffler (4), Brooks Koepka (17th), Justin Rose (8th), Patrick Cantlay (30TH) (Memorial), Tommy Fleetwood (MC), Jon Rahm (50th), Adam Scott (8th), Viktor Hovland (43rd), Tony Finau (Win), Sungjae Im (7TH), Jordan Spieth (4th), Si Woo Kim (39th), Tyrrell Hatton (60th), Adam Hadwin (MC), Rory McIlroy (MC), Will Zalatoris (53rd), Matt Kuchar (MC), Tony Finau (20), Xander Schauffele (10th), Seamus Power (15th), Max Homa (1st), Brian Harman (MC), and Corey Conners (12th)
SEASON LONG ONE & DONE PICK: EMILIANO GRILLO (JOHN DEERE)
Players Used This Season in One & Done: Rickie Fowler (Win), Scottie Scheffler (4), Dustin Johnson (10th), Justin Rose (8TH), Patrick Cantlay (30TH), Tommy Fleetwood (MC), Brooks Koepka (Win), K-H Lee (50th), Cameron Young (59th), Tony Finau (Win), Keith Mitchell (6th), Tom Kim (MC), Brooks Koepka (2nd), Matt Kuchar (3rd), Wyndham Clark (6th), Adam Hadwin (MC), Rory McIlroy (MC), Will Zallatoris (53rd), Sungjae Im (42nd), Max Homa (2), Xander Schauffele (10th), Jordan Spieth (63rd), Jon Rahm (7th), Taylor Montgomery (5th), Russell Henley (32nd), Seamus Power (25th), Brian Harman (2nd), Maverick McNealy (27th), Emiliano Grillo (42nd), Nick Hardy (28th), Terrell Hatton (13TH) Christian Bezuidenhout (29th), Cameron Davis (37th), Denny McCarthy (39th), Brendon Steele (MC)
BEST BETS FOR JOHN DEERE
ERIC COLE (30-1)
EMILIANO GRILLO (30-1)
ALEX SMALLEY (35-1)
CHEZ REAVIE (50-1)
DOUG GHIM (55-1)
CALLUM TARREN (75-1)
CARSON YOUNG (90-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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