The PGA Tour will stay in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open. Why would anyone want to come back to the main land anyways in January…? This time the tournament will be played on the Island of Oahu at the Waialae Country Club. Most people recognize this course by the palm trees that form a “W” on the final hole. This will be the first full-field event for the 2025 calendar season.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
The Sony Open will be played at Waialae Country Club. It is a 7,044-yard par 70. This is a plotter’s golf course. There are a lot of doglegs, so the golfers can take less than driver off the tee. It will be important to place your tee-shot in the proper side of the fairway to setup a good angle to the green. Strokes Gained (SG) Approach will be a key stat this week. The greens are Bermuda (same as last week). They are some of the smoothest on tour and easy to read. Even golfers who struggle with the flat-stick usually putt well at Waialae Country Club. The only defense for this course is the winds. They tend to have strong gusts at this course so golfers who play well in the wind (most of the Australians and golfers from Texas play well in windy conditions) typically score well at Waialae Country Club.
Shots Gained (SG) Tee-to-Green is the name of the game this week. The top-22 from last year’s leaderboard at the Sony Open all had positive SG Tee-To Green. In 2022 the top-26 all positive stats in that category and in 2020 the top-24 on the leaderboard all had positive SG Tee-to-Green stats. The top golfers in the field in SG Tee-to-Green include: 1. Kurt Kitayama, 2. Luke Clanton, 3. Hideki Matsuyama, 4. Tom Kim, 5. Lucas Glover, 6. Robert Macintyre, 7. Taylor Pendrith, 8. Sepp Straka, 9. Ben Griffin and 10. Rico Hoey
Click here to see the course: Waialae Country Club
KEY STATS FOR SONY OPEN
– Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
– Strokes Gained Approach (125 – 175 yards)
– Greens in Regulation %
– Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda)
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form
TOP 30 GOLFERS FOR SONY OPEN
CORE GOLFERS FOR SONY OPEN
*I faded Xander Schauffele as the top golfer in the field last week and it worked out nicely. I am going to fade Hideki Matsuyama this week. I still think Matsuyama is going to be good this week, but his ownership is going to be high and his wildness off the tee makes him a better pick for the Sentry then for the Sony Open.
SONY OPEN STRATEGY
We always need to look at trends in a golf tournament in order to find a stat that will help us predict the top golfers in the field. There is a trend at the Sony Open that has repeated for 14 years and it will likely happen again this weekend. The golfers who played The Sentry typically finish at the top of the leaderboard at the Sony Open.
There were 38 golfers who played both tournaments last year. Eight of them finished in the top 10 (80%) and 17 finished in the top-25 (68%). This year there are 35 golfers who tee’d it up at The Sentry last week and will make the trip to play in the Sony Open.
Jim “Bones” McCay explained this last year on the telecast. He said, “Most of the golfers want to relax and get a mai-tai and go to the beach. Golf is not the first thing on their minds. The golfers who played last week already got this out of their system. They show up in Honolulu focused on golf. The other reason is that the players from last week already have their time-clock adjusted to Hawaii time. It also helps that the golfers at The Sentry were the best on tour, so of course they should be the best this week.
I plan to load my lineups with the golfers who played last week, even if they did not play well.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
COREY CONNERS ($10,200): I really like Conners chances of winning this week. It doesn’t happen often, but his recent form and course history are outstanding. He is the best ball-striker in the field. The only weakness for Conners is his putting. He ranked in the top-10 in SG Putting last week and that allowed Conners to finish 5th. If he can putt, he can win Sunday.
RUSSELL HENLEY ($9,900): Henley is nearly the same type of golfer as Corey Conners. He is an elite ball-striker who plays the Sony Open very well. Henley finished 2nd in the Sony Open in 2022 and he finished 4th in this tournament last year. Henley was only “OK” last week with his 30th-place finish at the Sentry. I am just glad he knocked off some rust. Henley should have a much better chance to finish in the top-five at Waialae Country Club.
CAMERON DAVIS ($7,900): Davis was in my lineup last week because I wrote that I love the Australians in Hawaii. They typically play their best golf in windy conditions. Davis finished 13th last week and he should be even better at the Sony Open. Davis has made five consecutive cuts in this tournament. He enters this week in some of his best form of his career.
DANIEL BERGER ($7,500): I wanted to stick to golfers who played last week in my cash contest lineup, but Berger is too cheap to fade. He spent 2023 rehabbing from an injury. He came back last year and played pretty well. Berger showed signs of his pre-injury form at the end of the season. $7,500 is too cheap if we are getting Berger in his previous form. He finished 7th the last time he played the Sony Open. I will take a chance with Berger this week.
STEPHAN JAEGER ($7,400): Jaeger checks all of the boxes this week. He played the Sentry last week (Jaeger finished 36th), he has good courses history (Jaeger finished 18th and 28th in his last two trips to the Sony Open) and he ranks 19th in the key stats. I doubt Jaeger has the fire-power to win Sunday, but he should make the cut and have the upside to finish in the top-20.
NICK TAYLOR ($7,100): I am hoping that course history outweighs recent form with Taylor this week. He finished 7th, 7th and 11th in his last three trips to the Sony Open. Taylor only finished 48th last week, but I am just happy he was able to play and knock off some rust. Waialae Country Club is a good fit for his game, so I will have Taylor at the bottom of my Cash Contest lineup this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
MAVERICK MCNEALY ($9,200): I used a balanced lineup for my tournament contest picks last week and I was just one golfer change away from cashing in. I am going to use the same approach this week. I will start my lineup at the bottom of the $9K range with Maverick McNealy. He won the RSM Classic in the fall and he looked really good last week at the Sentry. McNealy has the form, course history and the stats to win Sunday.
TAYLOR PENDRITH ($8,800): I used Pendrith last week and he rewarded me with a 13th-place finish. I will go back to the Canadian this week. He ended the 2024 season with seven consecutive top-25 finishes. Pendrith finished 10th in the Sony Open last year. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-10 again this week.
AUSTIN ECKROAT ($8,700): Eckroat looked good in the fall with a win at the WWT Championship and he looked good last week with rounds of 68-68-68-67 at the Sentry. Eckroat finished 12th at the Sony Open in 2023, so he knows how to get around this course. I like playing the golfers in good form and played last week. Eckoat checks both boxes.
LUKE CLANTON ($8,400): I wanted to keep my picks to the golfers who have good course history at Waialae Country Club and golfers who played last week. Clanton does not check either box. He is one of the best young golfers on the PGA Tour. Clanton finished 2nd at the John Deere, 5th at the Wyndham and 2nd at the RSM Classic. He ranks No. 2 in SG Tee-to-Green. I will take a chance with the young golfer in Hawaii.
HARRY HALL ($8,100): I played Hall last week and he finished 8th. Hall was one of the best golfers on the fall schedule and it does not look like the New Year is going to slow him down. He ranks No. 9 in the key stats this week. Hall has played the Sony Open twice and made the cut both times. His hot form should allow Hall to finish near the top of the leaderboard Sunday.
CARSON YOUNG ($6,700): We saw C. Young near the top of the leaderboard last week. That was Cameron Young. This week I will play the other Young (Carson). His style of play is similar to Corey Conners and Russell Henley. He is not long off-the-tee, but he is accurate and his approach game is good enough to score well. He needs to chip a bit better, but I am banking on Young not missing many greens.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (Multi Entry Lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the second tournament in Segment 1. There are 10 tournaments in this segment, so use your golfers wisely this week. We need to save some of our top golfers for the tournaments on the mainland.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: COREY CONNERS (SONY OPEN)
*It is tough to decide between Corey Conners and Russell Henley. I thought about saving Conners for the RBC Canadian Open, but his form is just too good right now.
* If you are looking for a place to play a One & Done Contests, I always play at Fantasy Golf Championship. Here is the link to join a league: Fantasy Golf Championship
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: None yet
SEASON-LONG ONE & DONE PICK: RUSSELL HENLEY (SONY OPEN)
– One & Done picks used so far this season: Sungjae Im (3rd), Ben Griffin (15th), Nico Echavarria (29TH), Harris English (14TH), Beau Hossler (56TH), Tom Kim (MC), Keith Mitchell (MC), Ben Griffin (37th)
BEST BETS FOR THE SONY OPEN
COREY CONNERS (14-1)
TOM KIM (20-1)
MAVERICK MCNEALY (25-1)
LUCAS CLANTON (30-1)
AUSTIN ECKROAT (35-1)
DANIEL BERGER (55-1)
*I faded the chalk and bet too many long-shots last year. I would rather hit on a golfer at 8-1 odds then lose on a golfer with 50-1 odds. I am adding more of the top golfers to my card in 2025.
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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