The PGA Tour finally made it through THE PLAYERS Championship and now they will stay in Florida as they travel to Innisbrook Resort (right outside of Tampa Bay) for the Valspar Championship. Following a “signature event” on the schedule is never the spot a tournament wants to be at. The field is not as weak as we have seen it in the past. 15 of the top-40 golfers in the World Golf Rankings are scheduled to tee it up Thursday. We have to watch out for the withdrawals, because some golfers may want a week off after the tough tournament last week (Patrick Cantlay and Tom Kim already WD). We should still have enough golfers to build some good DFS lineups from at the Valspar Championship.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
The Copper Head Course is a par 71 which measures 7,340 yards in length. There are a few aspects of the course which make the Copperhead Course unique. There are four par 5s and five par 3s this week. The additional par 3 will make iron play more important at the Valspar Championship.
The second aspect of the course which makes it unique is the “Snake Pit”. These sets of holes are similar to the “Bear Trap” at the Contingent Classic. The “Snake Pit” consists of holes 16, 17 and 18. These are three of the toughest finishing holes on tour. So players should not feel comfortable with their lead until they are in the club house Sunday.
This course is difficult and scoring is usually not too far below par. The Valspar Championship ranked second to last in birdies and eagles on tour in 2022. You will want steady golfers who can rack up pars this week. If they can score a birdie here and there, your lineup will be golden.
Click here to see the course: Innisbrook Resort (Copper Head)
KEY STATS FOR VALSPAR
– Ball Striking
– Bogey Avoidance %
– Strokes Gained Par 3s
– Strokes Gained Par 4s (400-450 yards)
– Strokes Gained Par 5s
Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form
TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS
CORE GOLFERS FOR THE PLAYERS
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP STRATEGY
There will be 144 golfers teeing it up this week with the top 65 and ties making the cut. I will be playing a “stars and scrubs” lineup for both Cash and Tournament Contests this week. This tournament has a history of blowing up lineups. I reached the pay-line in my Cash Contest lineup last year with only 4 of 6 golfers playing the weekend. If that is the trend, why not play two of the highest priced golfers and hope they finish in the top-five. Then pair them with a “punt play” that has a decent chance to make the cut. That has been the winning strategy at the Valspar, so that is what I will do this week.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
SAM BURNS ($10,900): Burns should be the safest play for Cash Contest lineups this week. He won this tournament in 2021 and 2022 and he finished sixth last year. This is by far the best tournament for Burns. He also enters the Valspar in good form. Burns has made all of his cuts this year (6 for 6), including four finishes in the top-10 in his last five starts. Burns should be a lock for all Cash Contest lineups this week.
JORDAN SPIETH ($10,200): I wanted two of the golfers priced over $10K in my Cash Contest lineup. I could not fit Xander Schauffele with Sam Burns and I like Justin Thomas, but I do not trust him for Cash Contests lineups. I will live on the wild side and play Spieth. He has made every cut this year and he finished third at the Valspar last year. I doubt he will be highly owned in Cash Contests, so I will take a chance with Spieth in Florida.
MAVERICK MCNEALY ($8,100): McNealy was one of the golfers who popped when I ran the key stats. He ranks No. 4 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 1 in Scrambling, No. 6 in SG Putting and No. 2 overall in the key stats. McNealy has made every cut dating back to January (5 for 5) and that includes two finishes in the top-10 in his last three starts. McNealy finished 36th last year at the Valspar. His form is much better than it was in 2023.
TAYLOR MOORE ($7,800): I get the golfer who won this tournament last year and is in excellent form for $7,800? I will take it. Moore not only won this tournament last year, he led the field in proximity to the hole on his approach shots and led the field in putting. Moore has made every cut on the PGA Tour this year (6 for 6) and he ranks 23rd in the key stats. Moore should be a safe play in the middle of your Cash Contest lineup.
VICTOR PEREZ ($6,900): Perez enters the Valspar Championship after a third-place finish in Puerto Rico and a 16th-place finish in Florida at the Cognizant Classic. He ranks No. 7 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 4 in SG Approach, No. 9 in Scrambling and No. 21 overall in the key stats. Perez finished 45th in this tournament last year. I just need Perez to make the cut this week. I think he can do it.
HAYDEN SPRINGER ($6,100): Springer will be my “punt play” for my Cash Contest lineup. You can win your Cash Contests this week with only five golfers playing the weekend, so it really doesn’t matter what Springer does as long as Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth finish on the first page of the leaderboard. Springer finished third in his last tournament (Puerto Rico Open) and has made his last three cuts on the PGA Tour. I am not expecting much from Springer, but a made cut will easily push this lineup across the pay-line Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
XANDER SCHAUFFELE ($11,200): Schauffele is going to make the cut. His 41 consecutive cuts made in by far the longest on the PGA Tour. We need him to finish in the top-five in order to return value. I think Schauffele will do it. He ranks No. 1 in the key stats, nearly won THE PLAYERS last week and he finished 12th at the Valspar in 2022 (his only trip to Innisbrook). I will pay up for Schuaffele in many of my lineups this week.
JUSTIN THOMAS ($10,400): I was burned bad by Thomas last week. I used him as my One & Done pick and he missed the cut. He burned a lot of people, so I am hoping that will keep his ownership lower than it should be. Thomas finished 10th, 3rd and 13th in the last three Valspar Championships. He ranks No. 3 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 3 in SG Approach and No. 6 overall in the key stats. Thomas should be near the top of the leaderboard Sunday.
DOUG GHIM ($8,400): Ghim really popped when I ran the key stats for this tournament. He ranks No. 5 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 5 in SG Approach, No. 12 in SG Putting, No. 12 in Scrambling and No. 3 overall in the key stats. He finished 27th in this tournament last year and his form is better in 2024. Ghim has finished his last five tournaments in the top-16. He should have a decent chance to win Sunday.
ADAM SCHENK ($7,100): I will take a chance with Schenk this week. The key stats do not love him (Schenk ranks No. 54), but form and course history are pretty good. Schenk finished second last year in the Valspar and he finished 19th last week at THE PLAYERS. Schenk seems to be a good golfer to take a chance with this week.
BEN SILVERMAN ($6,500): I had some shares of Silverman last week and he missed the cut. The field is not as strong at the Valspar, so I will give him another chance. Silverman ranks No. 32 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 40 in Ball-Striking, No. 25 in SG Putting and No. 15 overall in the key stats. Silverman was able to navigate the “Bear Trap” at PGA National for a 13th-place finish. I think he can navigate the “Snakepit” at Innersbrook for a top-25 finish Sunday.
GREYSON SIGG ($6,300): The stats scream “Play Greyson Sigg this week” so I will listen to them. Sigg ranks No. 24 in SG Tee-to-Green, No. 10 in SG Approach and No. 17 overall in the key stats. Not too bad for $6,300. He played this tournament the last two seasons and made the cut both times. Sigg also made the cut three weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in Florida. His ball-striking should allow Sigg to make the cut again this weekend.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (Multi Entry Lineups)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the SECOND tournament in Segment 2. There are 11 tournaments in this segment (one more than usual). That includes the Masters and the PGA Championship. There are also two “signature events” in this segment (RBC Heritage and the Wells Fargo Championship). This is going to be a tough segment to navigate, so use your allocations wisely.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: MAVERICK MCNEALY (VALSPAR)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Justin Thomas (MC), Scottie Scheffler (Won), Russell Henley (41st), Tony Finau (13TH), Sahith Theegala (37th), Sam Burns (3rd), Max Homa (66th), Jason Day (MC), Taylor Montgomery (61st), Corey Conners (57th)
SEASON-LONG ONE & DONE PICK: SAM BURNS (VALSPAR)
One & Done picks used so far this season: Shane Lowry (19th), Matthew Fitzpatrick (MC), Eric Cole (MC), Nicolai Hojgaard (52nd), Adam Scott (19th), J.T. Poston (MC), Jordan Spieth (39th), Keegan Bradley (43rd), Andrew Putnam (47th), Russell Henley (4th), Sungae Im (5th), Alex Noran (Won), Beau Hossler (15TH), Min Woo Lee (6th), Adam Schenk (MC), Eric Cole (35TH), Sahith Theegala (Won)
BEST BETS VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP
BRIAN HARMAN (22-1)
DOUG GHIM (40-1)
CHRISTIAN BEZUIDENHOUT (50-1)
MAVERICK MCNEALY (55-1)
TAYLOR MOORE (65-1)
GREYSON SIGG (150-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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