The NASCAR Cup Series will take the green flag for their 66th season Sunday at the Daytona 500 and I cannot wait. The Fantasy Live picks have been my best for years. They have outscored 99% of the entries in both the regular season and playoffs games for 12 years strait. I will try my best to do it again in 2024.
STRATEGY FOR DAYTONA
Why have my picks been so successful? Too many people get caught up in saving allocations with their drivers. Yes, we can only use a driver 10 times during the regular season (26 races). That means we need to use 130 allocations (5 Drivers per Week) for our teams. We should use drivers like Shane Van Gisbergen and Michael McDowell at the five road course races and we use Bubba Wallace, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at the four Superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega). That means we only need 112 allocations for our lineups. We ONLY need 11 drivers to make it through the season. I plan to use 1. Kyle Larson, 2. William Byron, 3. Denny Hamlin, 4. Martin Truex Jr., 5. Christopher Bell, 6. Chase Elliott, 7. Joey Logano, 8. Ryan Blaney, 9. Ross Chastain, 10. Tyler Reddick and 11. Kyle Busch as my 11 drivers to get me through the season. Add in some starts with Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, Ty Gibbs and Alex Bowman and I will not even use up all of the allocations with the drivers I have in my list of 11 drivers. So, do not worry about allocations. They are not as important as you think in the Fantasy Live game.
The Daytona 500 is an unpredictable race. There is a portion of the race that is predictable though and we can improve our chances of scoring well if we use this information to our advantage… Some drivers like to run up front and score Stage Points at Daytona. We need these drivers in our lineups Sunday. Once our team scores the Stage Points, they cannot be taken away. Our drivers will post a decent score, even if they crash in the final laps Sunday. Here are the drivers who have averaged the most Stage Points at Daytona in the Gen-7 car…
* I know I wrote that we should not be worried about saving allocations, but I need to save Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney for the smaller tracks. Truex has averaged the most Stage Points at Daytona in the Gen-7 car, so he is a great pick. Hamlin has been one of the best drivers at Daytona. He has not been as good in the Gen-7 car, but it looks like Hamlin is back to his old self in the new Camry XSE. I have about 15 tracks I want to use Hamlin at this year, so I need to fade him Sunday. Blaney is one of the best drivers at finishing up front, but he has never scored a Stage Point at Daytona while using the Gen-7 car. I will save these two drivers for the short, flat tracks this season.
Here are the picks for the Daytona 500…
JOEY LOGANO (10): Logano is the best pick in the field Sunday. Logano won 2015 Daytona 500 and he will have a good chance to win again this week. We need drivers who can score Stage Points. Logano averaged 16 Stage Points in the two races at Daytona in 2022 and he averaged seven Stage Points in the two races last year. He also has an average finishing position of 10th at Daytona while driving the Gen-7 car. Logano should score a lot of Stage Points and have a good chance to finish in the top-10 from the No. 1 starting spot and the No. 1 pit stall.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL (10): McDowell won the 2021 Dayton 500. Can he do it again? I think so. Jerry Freeze (General Manager of Front Row Motorsports) said on SiriusXM On Track Show, “We have a new alliance with Team Penske. Michael’s car was prepared by Team Penske and it is nearly the same as what Logano had in qualifying. It did not surprise me to see our car win the pole.” This will be the best car McDowell has ever had at Daytona. I expect McDowell to work with Joey Logano (his new teammate) up front, score a lot of Stage Points and have a good chance to finish in the top-10 in the Daytona 500.
AUSTIN CINDRIC (10): Cindric won the Daytona 500 in the Gen-7 car in 2022. He also finished third in the Coke Zero 400 that year. The No. 2 car looks fast again this year. Cindric finished second in his Duel Race Thursday night. Now he will start sixth in the Daytona 500. Can he keep his track position in the race? Cindric ran 98% of his laps in the Duel Race in the top-10. I expect Cindric to draft with Joey Logano and his new alliance teammate (Michael McDowell) and dominate much of the race Sunday.
BUBBA WALLACE (10): Love him or hate him, Wallace is a good pick for your lineup Sunday. Wallace is averaging 5.75 Stage Points (sixth-most), and an 11.3 average finishing position (third-best) in the Gen-7 car at Daytona. Wallace finished second in the 2022 Daytona 500. The new Toyota Camry XSE car looked really good in the Duels. Wallace will have a good chance to win Sunday.
ERIK JONES (10): I wasn’t planning on playing so many Toyota’s but it is hard to ignore the speed they have shown in race trim. I talked to a friend who works for Stewart-Haas Racing. I was told that the Cup Series garage is trying to figure out how to beat the Toyota’s. Jones started 12th and finished fifth Thursday night in his Duel Race. He led five laps and had the second-best driver rating. I will take a chance with “That Jones Boy” this week.
(GARAGE PICK) CHASE ELLIOTT (10): Elliott did not win a race last year and he has never won on point’s race at Daytona. That could all change Sunday. Elliott finished fourth in the last race at Daytona. He also finished second in the 2021 Daytona 500 and second in the 2020 Coke Zero 400. Elliott leads the Cup Series with four top-10 finishes at Daytona since 2021. He should be a safe pick to have in the Garage Sunday.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.