Fantasy Live Picks for Homestead

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The Fantasy Live Playoff Game has seven races in the books and three races to go. My goal each season is to outscore 99% of the entries in both the regular season and the playoff games. We were able to do it in the regular season and the picks are trending towards outscoring 99% of the entries in the playoffs too. The picks scored 254 points at Las Vegas and now they are outscoring 99.2% of the entries. We still have some work to do, so I will do my best to keep the picks trending up after the race in Homestead.

 

 

FANTASY LIVE PLAYOFF STRATEGY

The strategy for Fantasy Live is to play the best drivers you have available this week. The four drivers racing for the championship at Phoenix will NOT earn Stage Points in the last race. That means we only have two races (Homestead and Martinsville) to use our top drivers (Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and William Byron). I want to make sure I use my allocations with these drivers before the race at Phoenix. I will use drivers who can score Stage Points in the final race of the season.

 

PRACTICE SPEEDS

The Cup Series had 20-minutes to dial in their cars for the race Sunday. Homestead Speedway is a 1.5-mile track. The tires wear out over a long run at this track, so it will be important to look at the speeds from practice, but more important to see which drivers were fast on the 10-lap average speed chart. The drivers at the top of that chart and were able to post a fast lap in qualifying are the drivers we want in our lineups Sunday.

 

 

 

FANTASY LIVE LINEUP

KYLE LARSON (2): Larson dominated the race last week at Las Vegas and he dominated the race at Homestead last year. Larson led 199 of the 267 laps, won both Stages and went to Victory Lane at Homestead last year. Larson won the first race in the round of Eight in 2021 (Texas). He then won the next race in the Round of Eight (Kansas) and then went on to win the championship. Larson looked fast in practice, so his team is not taking the week off. Larson is the best pick in the field Sunday.

WILLIAM BYRON (1): Will Hendrick Motorsports focus all of their work this week on the No. 24 car since Kyle Larson is already locked into the championship four? I think it could happen. Byron won at Homestead in 2021 and he looks fast this weekend. Byron ranks No. 1 in average speed on the high tire-wear tracks in the Gen-7 car (Auto Club, Darlington and Homestead). The No. 24 car is going to be tough to beat at Homestead.

TYLER REDDICK (2): Could Reddick win the race Sunday and secure a spot in the Championship Four? I would not bet against it. The key to running fast at Homestead is to search the track for grip and to run up against the wall. That is right in Reddick’s wheelhouse. He said on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Monday, “I feel really confident about the race at Homestead. This has been my best track ever since I entered NASCAR. My team knows what I need to win at this track and I am sure they will have a fast car for me to drive Sunday.” I would not be surprised to see Reddick in Victory Lane Sunday.

MARTIN TRUEX JR. (5): Can we trust Truex? The No. 19 team was on fire over the summer and they have been in a slump in the playoffs. Truex had a shaky race last week at Las Vegas, but he was able to finish eighth. I will give Truex another chance this week. He has finished four of the last six races at Homestead in the top-three. His stats in Southern Florida are just too good to fade this week.

BRAD KESELOWSKI (1): I am really impressed with the improvement that the RFK Racing cars have made this year. Keselowski finished fifth at Homestead last year and the No. 6 team is running a lot better in 2023 than they were in 2022. He has the seventh-best average finishing position in the playoffs this year. I will play the hot hand and have Keselowski in my lineup this weekend.

 

GARAGE DRIVER:  DENNY HAMLIN (2): Hamlin is no stranger to Victory Lane at Homestead. He has three wins in Southern Florida, with his last trip to Victory Lane in 2020. Hamlin cooled off a bit after his hot start to the playoffs, but he should bounce back at Homestead. Hamlin ranks No. four in average speed on the high tire-wear tracks in the Gen-7 car. Hamlin did not look great in practice, but the No. 11 team should be able to get some speed into the car during the race.

 

 

Good luck and be sure to follow me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCARI will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.

 

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