The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Kansas Speedway this weekend for another race on a 1.5-mile track. Remember the days when Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson or maybe Kevin Havick would lead 180 of the 267 laps at the 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter tracks? Those days are gone. The Gen-7 car has made the speeds so close that any driver with a fast pit crew can steal track position, get to the front and stay there for many laps. This makes predicting these races more difficult, but a trip to Kansas should provide some old-school racing. Kansas Speedway is worn-out, has many grooves to race on and bumps to change the speeds in the cars. The finish in the spring race at Kansas last year was the closest in NASCAR history. Hopefully we get a similar race on Mother’s Day.
The Fantasy Live picks are heading in the wrong direction. They were outscoring 98% of the entries a few weeks ago and now they are outscoring 95.7%. I would be concerned if the drivers I was using were not able to run up front and score Stage Points. The drivers in the lineup have had some shitty luck. Denny Hamlin’s car blew up while running in the top-10. Ty Gibbs and Tyler Reddick were trapped on pit road when a caution flag came out and put them in the back of the pack. I will continue to pick the drivers with speed and hope for better luck. Mechanical issues and untimely cautions suck. We should bounce back this week at my home track.
Here are my results from the Texas…
PRACTICE SPEEDS FOR KANSAS
NASCAR had their normal schedule this weekend at Kansas Speedway. The teams were separated into two groups and they had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the AdventHealth 400. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice.
So, how did the practice speeds translate into race speed last year at Kansas Speedway? Only three of the drivers who posted top-10 speed in practice, finished the race in the top-10. The 10-lap average speed chart was a better prediction for the race. Kyle Larson posted the second-best 10-lap average speed and he won the race. Denny Hamlin had the fourth-best speed on the 10-lap average speed chart and he won finished fifth. Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott had top-10 speed on the long-runs in practice and they finished in the top-10 too. The drivers who had the best long-run speed in practice should be the drivers with the fastest cars in Sunday’s race.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice session at Kansas Speedway…
STRATEGY FOR KANSAS
The strategy at the 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter tracks has been to play your studs because the cream always rises to the top in these races. The Gen-7 car is changing that strategy. We saw Josh Berry, Carson Hocevar and Ausin Cindric dominate a large portion of the race last week in Texas. I do not think we will get that Sunday in Kansas, but there are some mid-tier drivers who should run well. Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace have been good at Kansas and good on the other intermediate tracks. It would be a good idea to mix in some of your studs (Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell) with some of these mid-tier drivers. That way you are not burning up all of your allocations with your top drivers and you will still have a good chance to post a high score.
Here are the picks for the AdventHealth 400…
KYLE LARSON (5): Larson has had no problem dominating the races on the 1.5-mile tracks. He has not been able to find Victory Lane as much as he should have in these races. Larson won at Homestead-Miami Speedway, finished 9th at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and 4th at Texas Motor Speedway last week. He led the most laps at Las Vegas and Texas. Larson also led the most laps in two of the last four races at Kansas Speedway. He finished three of his last four races in the Heartland in the top-four. Larson is going to be tough to beat from the pole and with the No. 1 pit stall.
WILLIAM BYRON (4): Byron has the best average finishing position on the 1.5-mile tracks in the Gen-7 car. He started 6th, won Stage 1, finished 4th in Stage 2, led 24 laps and finished 2nd in the last race at Kansas Speedway. Las Vegas is the most similar track to Kansas and Byron finished 4th in that race. The No. 24 car has the speed to run up front and score well for your Fantasy Live lineup.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (6): Bell has really cooled off since his three wins earlier in the season. A trip to Kansas Speedway should get the No. 20 car rolling again. Bell finished the last 3 races at Kansas Speedway in the top-10. He also led 122 laps and finished 7th in the last race in Kansas. Bell has a lot of speed again this weekend. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-five Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK (4): Reddick won at Kansas Speedway in 2023 and he had one of the fastest cars last week at Texas. He has been hit or miss on the 1.5-mile, cookie cutter tracks in his career, but the No. 45 car is too fast to fade Sunday. Reddick posted the third-fastest speed on the long runs in practice and the No. 45 car qualified fourth for the race. Reddick has the speed to finish in the top-five in the AdventHealth 400.
CHRIS BUESCHER (9): Buescher lost to Kyle Larson in the spring race at Kansas by .001 of a second. That is the closest finish in NASCAR history. Buescher had an average finishing position of 6.5 at Kansas last year. He also ran well at Las Vegas and Texas this year (although the results do not reflect the speed the No. 17 car had in the races). Buescher posted the second-fastest speed on the long runs in practice and he qualified second for the race. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-10, with the upside to finish in the top-five in the AdventHealth 400.
(GARAGE PICK) DENNY HAMLIN (7): Kansas Speedway is the best 1.5-mile track for Hamlin and it is not even close. Hamlin has a series-high, four wins at Kansas Speedway. His 3.7 average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Kansas is better than any other driver in the field by four positions. Hamlin needs a bounce-back race after the disaster in Texas. The No. 11 car has enough speed this weekend to run up front, score a lot of Stage Points and finish in the top-five. He is a great insurance policy to have in the Garage Sunday.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.