The Cup Series travels to Phoenix Raceway this week for some short track racing. That means the teams will be using the new short track aero-package. The drivers who tested this new aero-package at Phoenix in December said they liked the changes. We will find out this weekend if NASCAR changes worked or not. The Shriners Children’s 500 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Be careful when you look at the Fantasy Live picks. They are as hot as the sun right now. The picks are currently outscoring 99.7% of the entries on the nascar.com site. That is nothing new though. They have outscored 99% of the entries for 12 consecutive seasons. This is by far one of my best starts. I will do my best to ensure the picks stay red hot throughout the entire season. (Be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) for my Garage pick at the end of Stage two. @MrFantasyNASCAR )
CUP SERIES PRACTICE
NASCAR gave the teams a 50-minute practice session to dial in their cars for Sunday’s race. Some of the drivers I expected to be fast were way down the speed chart. I am not too worried about the larger teams. Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske will bring all of their crew chiefs and engineers together to improve their cars for the race. We still cannot ignore the speed charts. Here are the speeds from Friday’s practice session….
SINGLE-LAP AVERAGE SPEED
10-LAP AVERAGE SPEED CHART
STRATEGY FOR PHOENIX
Some of you have been following my Fantasy NASCAR picks since I started to write for Bleacher Report in 2008 and then Fox Sports in 2012. I made picks for the Fantasy Live game, and typically the picks allowed players to win their leagues. The races were much easier to handicap back then because the Cup Series had 50 minute practices before qualifying. It is not hard to figure out which cars are fast when they make 30 lap runs in practice. That is what we have this week.
We need to focus our picks on the drivers who had speed on the long-runs in practice. This race has a history of have a lot of long green flag runs. The Cup Series has averaged 2.5 cautions per race for wrecks. We also need to focus on track position. The Shriners Children’s 500 is one of the shortest races of the season (312-miles). The drivers do not have much time to make it to the front. The first Stage is only 60 miles. So, we want the drivers who were fast in practice and qualified up front in our lineups Sunday. Do not worry about saving allocations with your top drivers.
Here are the picks for the Shriners Children’s 500…
DENNY HAMLIN (10): We are at race four on the schedule and I still have not used Denny Hamlin. He has not been very good so far this season (Hamlin has an average finishing position of 16.7), but that change at Phoenix. Hamlin won on the short, flat track at the L.A. Coliseum in the Clash Race to start the season and the No. 11 car looked fast in practice. Hamlin posted the second-fastest speed with the ninth-fastest long-run speed. The Toyota’s looked fast Friday, so I will take a chance with Hamlin in my lineup.
CHASE ELLIOTT (9): Elliott has been in a slump for a long time, but I am going to take a chance with the No. 9 car Sunday. Elliott posted the seventh-fastest speed in practice and he really liked the way his car drove in traffic. Elliott also posted the eighth-fastest speed on 15-lap speed chart. He qualified third for the race. The No. 9 car has the long-run speed and the track position to score well for your Fantasy Live lineup Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON (9): Byron won this race last year. He also won the pole, led 96 laps, scored 15 Stage Points and finished fourth last November at Phoenix. The No. 24 car did not set the track on fire in practice, but I am not worried about it. I retweeted the conversation between Byron and his crew chief (Rudy Fugle). Byron liked every change they made to the car and felt they were dialed in for the race. Byron qualified fifth for the Shriners Children’s 500. He is just too good to fade at Phoenix.
RYAN BLANEY (9): The No. 12 team tested the new aero package at Phoenix in December and now they showed up with some speed in practice. Blaney was seventh-fastest on the 15-lap speed chart and fifth-fastest on the 20-lap speed chart. The No. 12 car should gain some more speed once they talk to the No. 22 team about the speed they had in practice. Blaney finished second in the last three races at Phoenix. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-five Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK (9): I am not sure what’s up with Reddick at Phoenix. He has finished third in both March races at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car and he finished 22nd and 23rd in the November races. I just checked the calendar and it is March. That means it is time for Reddick to finish up front at Phoenix. The No. 45 car posted the third-fastest speed, with the fifth-fastest long-run speed in practice. Reddick qualified sixth for the race. He nearly won last week. I will give Reddick another chance Sunday.
(GARAGE PICK) CHRISTOPHER BELL (10): The No. 20 car was the fastest at the test session at Phoenix last December and they showed up with the fastest car for Sunday’s race. Bell posted the eighth-fastest speed, but his car was blazing fast on the long runs. Bell posted the second-fastest speed on the 10-lap average chart and the fastest speed on the 15-lap and 20-lap average speed charts. Bell qualified 13th for the race. He should be a good insurance policy to have in the Garage Sunday.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.