The NASCAR Cup Series will be joined by the Xfinity Series and Truck Series this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. I am surprised to see the Truck Series drivers race cleaner than the Xfinity Series drivers this year. I am afraid of how many cautions we may have in the Xfinity Series this weekend, because they just drove over each other at Martinsville two weeks ago. I hope I am wrong and we get three exciting races this weekend, but I am not expecting much from the series “Where Names Are Made.” (Maybe it is becoming the Series Where Names Are Ruined).
Here is the schedule for the on-track activity in Thunder Valley this weekend…
BRISTOL PREVIEW
Goodyear brought a new softer tire to Bristol last year. The weather really affected how the tires wore in the races last year. The spring race was one of the coldest at Bristol, so the tires wore out after about 40-50 laps. The three oldest drivers in the field finished in the top-three positions, because they knew how to manage their tires better than the younger drivers in the race. Denny Hamlin led 163 laps and went to Victory Lane. Martin Truex Jr. led 54 laps and finished second. Brad Keselowski only led one lap, but he finished third.
The Bristol Night Race was completely different. Goodyear brought the same tire to the track, but the hot temperatures in September caused the tires to maintain their grip for 80-90 laps. Kyle Larson started on the front row and “Yung Money” smoked the field. Larson led 462 of the 500 laps, won both Stages and he finished second.
So, what are we expecting to see this weekend? The temperatures are not expected to be as cold as last year, but not as hot as they were in September. I doubt we will see a driver like Kyle Larson led 92% of the laps again. I expect the race to play out like it did last spring with two drivers leading over 140 laps each and three drivers leading over 30 laps each. Most of these drivers should come from Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. These two organizations dominated the races at Bristol last year. There is no reason to believe they will not do the same Sunday.
FANTASY STATS FOR BRISTOL
How do we handicap a race that has not had any consistency in the Gen-7 area? There have been four races on the concrete at Bristol in the Gen-7 car. Three of the four races all played out the same way. There were two drivers who dominated the race and about nine cautions per race. I am going to use the stats from these four races and add in the stats from the race at Martinsville. I know you are asking, “What the hell does Martinsville have to do with Bristol?” Goodyear will use the same tire this week and I want some of the 2025 speed in the model so it bumps up the drivers who are on a hot streak like Ryan Preece and Zane Smith.
Here are the driver’s stats from the four races at Bristol in the Gen-7 car and the race two weeks ago at Martinsville Speedway, sorted by Driver Rating…
EARLY WEEK PICKS FOR BRISTOL
ONE & DONE PICK: KYLE LARSON
FANTASY LIVE PICKS
FANTRAX LIVE PICKS
* I will post my full lineup FanTrax lineup (with bench drivers) in the article posted on Wednesday evening
SPEEDWAY COLLECTIVE
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR BRISTOL
KYLE LARSON (+450): I was surprised to see that Larson was not the favorite. Larson completely smoked the field in the Bristol Night Race last year. Larson led 462 of the 500 laps, won both Stages and finished second. “Yung Money” finished 1st, 5th, 2nd, 5th and 1st in his last five races in Thunder Valley. Larson has average 14 Stage Points, 142 laps led, with an average finishing position of 2.8 at Bristol since 2020. It is hard to find a driver with better stats at any track on the NASCAR schedule.
CHRIS BUESCHER (+2500): Buescher has some momentum after his six-place finishes at Homestead and Darlington. Now he gets to compete at a track he went to Victory Lane at in 2022. Buescher has been pretty consistent at Bristol. His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car in Thunder Valley is 6.5. I will take a chance with Buescher at 25-1 odds Sunday.
RYAN PREECE (+4000): Preece has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season. He finished third in Las Vegas, ninth at Homestead and seventh at Martinsville. Now he gets to compete at his best track. Preece has an average finishing position of 11th in the Gen-7 car at Bristol. Chris Buescher shocked the Cup Series when he won in his RFK Racing Ford at Bristol in 2022, and Josh Berry shocked people when he won earlier this season at Las Vegas. This could be the week that Preece wins at 40-1 odds.
* I will update these picks this weekend.
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