The NASCAR Cup Series will celebrate the 4th of July this weekend in Chicago with the O’Reilly Series. This is nothing the new. NASCAR has been celebrating the 4th of July in Chicago since 2023. This year is different though. Instead of driving through the streets of Chicago, NASCAR will make the trip to Joliet, Illinois to race at Chicagoland Speedway. The Cup Series last raced at this track in 2018. Joe Gibbs Race won four of the last five races at Chicagoland Speedway. JGR has also dominated the races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year. Will JGR celebrate the 4th of July weekend in Victory Lane once again, or will another team step up this week. It should be fun to see how it all plays out.
Here is the schedule for the on-track activity at Chicagoland Speedway this weekend…
Friday (July 3rd) 4:30 p.m. ET: O’Reilly Series Practice
Friday (July 3rd) 6 p.m. ET: Cup O’Reilly Practice
Saturday (July 4th) 1:30 ET: O’Reilly Series Qualifying
Saturday (July 4th) 3 p.m. ET: Cup Qualifying
Saturday (July 4th) 4:30 p.m. ET: O’Reilly Series Race
Sunday (July 5th) 6 p.m. ET: Cup Series Race
FANTASY STATS FOR CHICAGOLAND
The Cup Series has competed on four 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year (Las Vegas, Kansas, Texas and Charlotte). Chicagoland is a 1.5-mile, D-Shaped, Tri-Oval track. The most similar to Chicagoland Speedway is Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway. I will give extra weight to the stats from those two races and combine it with the stats from the races at Texas and Charlotte. This should give us an idea of which drivers will be the best picks for our Fantasy NASCAR lineups when NASCAR returns to Chicagoland Speedway.
Here are the stats from the races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway this year, sorted by Driver Rating…
CHICAGOLAND RACE REWIND
This is the part of the article where I break down the previous race at the track that the Cup Series is competing at. Instead of going back to 2019 (the last Cup Series race at Chicagoland Speedway), I am going to highlight one of the epic races at Chicagoland Speedway and honor the talents of the late Kyle Busch.
It was a hot day at Chicagoland Speedway in 2018. Kyle Busch had the car to beat, but Kyle Larson was charging through the field fast. The two Kyle’s put on a show as they raced each other for the win. Busch passed Larson and Larson pulled the classic SLIDE JOB!!!! SLIDE JOB!!! In the end, Busch made it to Victory Lane and gave a lot of respect to Larson. It was a fantastic race. (RIP Rowdy)
You can watch the highlights of the 2018 race at Chicagoland Speedway here: 2018 BATTLE OF THE KYLES
EARLY WEEK DRIVER RANKINGS
I used the stats from the intermediate stats for the driver rankings this week, but I gave a slight bump up in the rankings to Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney. These three drivers participated in a tire test at Chciagoland Speedway in May. Larson said that the No. 5 team learned a lot about their new Chevy Chassis in that test. Blaney also said that he learned a bit that he feels he can take back to the other Ford teams. We may not get a total Toyota blowout at Chicagoland Speedway, like we have at the other 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year.
Here is the early week Driver Rankings for the race at Chicagoland Speedway….
* These rankings will be updated after the qualifying session is completed Saturday.
STRATEGY FOR CHICAGOLAND
SEASON-LONG GAME STRATEGY: The cream always rises to the top on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks, so this is the race to play your best drivers. Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have been the top teams. It would be a good idea to load your lineups with drivers from these three teams. Spire Motorsports and RFK Racing have been gaining on the top-three teams, so filling in the rest of your lineup with drivers from Spire Motorsports and RFK Racing may be a good idea too at Chicagoland Speedway.
DFS GAME STRATEGY: The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps (400.5 miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.9 dominator points). I expect the race Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway to play out like the races at Las Vegas and Kansas this year. Denny Hamlin led 138 laps and scored 47 fastest laps (53.15 dominator points) and Kyle Larson led 62 laps and scored 12 fastest laps (20.9 dominator points) in Las Vegas this year… Denny Hamlin led 131 laps and scored 35 fast laps (48.5 dominator points) and Kyle Larson led 78 laps and scored 23 fastest laps (29.85 dominator points) at Kansas Speedway. There is a good chance that Hamlin and Larson will be the top dominators again Sunday.
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR CHICAGOLAND
I like to look at the odds early in the week and see if there are any drivers who are mispriced. I like to bet on these drivers before they get on the track for practice or qualifying and then we lose these odds. I am not suggesting that these drivers are the best picks in the field, but they are worth some a few bucks to return a nice profit.
Here is my early week Best Bets for the eero 400…
TY GIBBS (14-1): The Toyota’s have been the most dominate cars on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks. I expect the Chevy’s and Fords to catch a bit this week after the tire test in April, but the Toyota’s make for the best bets this weekend. Gibbs won on the short track at Bristol. Could he do it again in Chicago? I think so. Gibbs finished 5th at Las Vegas, 9th at Kansas and 6th at Charlotte. Getting a Joe Gibbs Racing car at +1400 seems like a good bet to me.
BUBBA WALLACE (28-1): If I really like the Toyota’s this weekend, I cannot fade Wallace at 28-1 odds. Some people many think that he does not have the talent to win on an intermediate track but Wallace won at Kansas in 2022 and Indianapolis last year. Wallace finished 9th at Las Vegas and 5th at Kansas. He just needs a few things to go his way in order to cash at 28-1 odds Sunday night.
** WILLIAM BYRON (16-1): I would take a chance with Byron at 16-1 odds on FanDuel, but I am not sure 12-1 on DraftKings is enough to bet now (I rather wait until after practice to bet Byron on DraftKings). Byron has been at his best on tracks similar to Chicagoland Speedway. He finished 3rd at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and 7th at Kansas Speedway. I am not adding Byron to the card yet (mostly because most of my bankroll in on DraftKings and not FanDuel), but if you like to use FanDuel, Byron is a good bet.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (+550 for top-five finish): Chicagoland Speedway is a track that eats up tires quickly. The veteran drivers who are good at maintaining their tire wear over a long run should finish up front Sunday night. Keselowski is one of those drivers. Asking Keselowski to win the race may be asking a lot, but I like his chances for a top-five finish at +550.
ALEX BOWMAN (10-1 for a top-five finish): I had Bowman penciled in to win this race before the season started. Bowman was the master at Chicagoland Speedway in the past. He has a streak of three top-10 finishes going at Chicagoland Speedway and that includes a trip to Victory Lane in 2019 (the last race at Chicagoland Speedway). Could a trip back to his best track jumpstart the season for Bowman? I am not sure he can win, but 10-1 seems pretty good for a top-five finish Sunday night.
* I may add a one or two drivers to the card that I think are Best Bets after qualifying Saturday.
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