The drafting track portion of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule is complete and now it is time to go road course racing. The Cup Series travels to the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) this week for the first of five road course races this year on the NASCAR schedule. This race typically puts on a good show. It should be fun to see the drivers turn left and right as the race up and down the hills, try their best to “Keep Austin Weird.”
COTA SCHEDULE
The Cup Series and the O’Reilly Series will race in COTA this weekend. The NASCAR teams did not get any track time to dial in their cars for the race last week in Atlanta, but that will not be the case in COTA. The Cup Series has a 50-minute practice session scheduled for Saturday at 10 a.m. ET and then they will immediately lineup for group qualifying. After qualifying is completed, the cars will be impounded for the race Sunday. The DuraMAX Grand Prix is scheduled for Sunday at 3:30 p.m. on FOX. The O’Reilly Series races at COTA at 3 p.m. ET Saturday on CW.
The Truck Series will make history when they join the IndyCar in a double-header on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida. This will be the first street course race for the Truckers and many IndyCar drivers are expected to get behind the wheel of the trucks. The Truck Series race can be seen Saturday at Noon ET on FOX.
EARLY WEEK DRIVER RANKINGS
There are a handful of drivers who have figured out COTA and it is amazing that Shane van Gisbergen is not at the top of the list. William Byron has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two races at COTA. Christopher Bell has also finished 1st and 2nd in his last two races at COTA. Tyler Reddick has never finished outside the top-five in the GEN-7 car at COTA and the No. 45 team has a lot of momentum heading into this race. Kyle Busch dominated this race last year and he finished 2nd at COTA in 2023. These four drivers have been the best at COTA, but sooner or later SVG is going to take over this track too. His best finish at COTA is 6th.
Here are the early week driver rankings for the DuraMAX Grand Prix…
* These rankings will be updated after all of the practice sessions are completed and the field is set for the race.
FANTASY STATS FOR COTA
Not all road courses are created equal. COTA was built for F1 Racing and not heavy stockcars. Turns 1, 11 and 12 put a lot of strain on the brakes. There is also a 133-foot climb into a blind turn 1 to start the race. COTA is one of the more technical tracks on the road course schedule. It is similar to Sonoma because of the elevation changes and the tight turns. I used the data from the last three races at COTA and combined it with the data from the last race at Sonoma for the stats this week. This should give us an idea of which drivers are good at COTA and which drivers are good on the technical road course tracks in the Cup Series.
COTA RACE REWIND
Tyler Reddick won the pole for the race at COTA last year. It was his second pole at the track. Reddick has never qualified outside the top-five at COTA, so he should start up front Sunday. Bubba Wallace followed his teammate (Tyler Reddick) in qualifying and it resulted in Wallace starting the race on the front row. Wallace used his track position to win Stage 1.
Most of the race was dominated by Kyle Busch and Shane van Gisbergen. Busch led 42 of the 95 laps and SVG led 23 laps. Both drivers pitted befor the end of Stage 2 so they could start the final Stage up front. This gave Ryan Preece the lead and the win in Stage 2.
The No. 24 team (William Byron) and the No. 20 team (Christopher Bell) used pit strategy to take over the race. They ran longer in final Stage before making their final pit-stop. This gave them fresher tires to run down Kyle Busch. Denny Hamlin spun out Austin Dillon with 18 laps to go. This brought out a caution and it allowed Byron and Bell with fresh tires to start up front with Busch and Shane van Gisbergen on older tires. It was a great race between Busch, Bell, Byron and Reddick for the finish. Bell was able to out-run his competitors and win back-to-back races (He won the previous week in Atlanta). This race came down to pit strategy and Rudy Fugle and Adam Stevens showed why they are two of the best in the business (It also shows why these two drivers finished 1st and 2nd in the last two races at COTA).
You can watch the highlights of last year’s race here: 2025 COTA Race Rewind
STRATEGY FOR COTA
SEASON-LONG GAME STRATEGY: It is time to put your Superspeedway drivers back in the toy box and dig out your road course drivers. Group A in the Driver Group Game and the FaxTrax games are going to be tough this week. William Byron, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick have dominated the races at COTA. Do we use two of these drivers or do we pick one and pair them with Shane van Gisbergen at his worst road course track? It is tough to fade SVG on a road course, so he will likely be in most lineups.
The other decision that will be tough this week is between AJ Allmendinger and Connor Zilisch. Everyone is expecting a lot from Zilisch on the road courses this year, but he did not look good in the race at COTA last year. COTA is one of the best tracks from Allmendinger, so it may be a good idea to take a wait and see approach with the rookie.
Track history means more at COTA then any other road course on the schedule. You need to play the drivers who consistently run up front at this track. Seldom do we get a driver who has poor track history at COTA to finish up front.
DFS GAME STRATEGY: Do you believe in history repeating itself? If so, you need to play William Byron, Christopher, Kyle Busch and Alex Bowman in your DFS lineups Sunday. All four drivers have been in the winning lineups in the last two races at COTA. Can they make it a three-peat Sunday? I am not sure, but I will have some exposure to these drivers this week.
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR COTA
I like to look at the odds early in the week and see if there are any drivers who are mispriced. I like to bet on these drivers before they get on the track for practice or qualifying and then we lose these odds. I am not suggest that these drivers are the best picks in the field, but they are worth some a few bucks to return a nice profit.
TYLER REDDICK 16-1: Reddick is my pick to win before the cars get on the track this weekend. I was surprised to see his odds were 16-1 after he won the first two races on the schedule and COTA ranks as his best track. Reddick has never finished outside the top-five at COTA in the Gen-7 car. He won this race in 2023 and he can do it again Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN 28-1: Chastain is another driver who has longer odds than he should have. Chastain won in the Gen-7 car at COTA in 2022 and his average finishing position at this track is 5.6. Those are some good stats for a driver with his odds. Add in the fact that he is sharing information with Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch and you have yourself the best value pick in the field.
KYLE BUSCH 30-1: Busch dominated this race last year. He led 42 of the 95 laps and he came one poor pit call away from going to Victory Lane. That race was not a fluke. Busch also finished 2nd at COTA in 2023. His average finishing position since he joined Richard Childress Racing at COTA is 5.3. That is not bad for a driver priced at 30-1 to win Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN 35-1: So, I get a driver who finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 9th in his last four races at COTA at 35-1 odds? OK, I have some money for this bet. The books probably think that Bowman cannot beat SVG and the field on a road course tracks. Well, he did it on the streets of Chicago in 2024. I will bet that Bowman can do it again Sunday.
I will add one or two more Best Bets after qualifying, if I see any drivers worth adding to the card (If SVG goes out and dominates practice and wins the pole, his odds will be too low to bet and I am not dumb enough to bet against him when he looks that good).
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