NASCAR Cup Series will take their show to one of the oldest tracks on the schedule this weekend. The Truck Series will be back after two weeks off and they will join the Cup Series and O’Reilly Auto Parts Series at Darlington Raceway. “The Lady Black” always puts on a good show, so it should be fun to see all three series compete at “The Track Too Tough to Tame.”
DARLINGTON SCHEDULE
The Truck Series will be on the track Friday. They will have a 50-minute practice session and then they will line up for qualifying. The Truck Series race is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
The O’Reilly Series will have their practice session at noon ET Saturday and then they will line up to set the field for the Sports Clips 200. The O’Reilly Series race can be seen Saturday at 5:30 p.m. ET on the CW Channel.
The Cup Series will practice Saturday at 2:30 p.m. ET and then they will line up to qualify for the GoodYear 400. The Cup Series race can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
EARLY WEEK DRIVER RANKINGS
You may think that the Cup Series is just going to another race at Darlington Raceway. That is not the case this week. The Cup Series is using the new 750-horsepower package and they are taking the diffuser off the underbody of the cars this week. Denny Hamlin said on his Actions Detrimental podcast, “It is going to be crazy at Darlington. The 750-HP package is going to change everything at that race. The way the cars will be sliding around that track is going to be nuts. We could see a four-second falloff over a cycle on the tires.” Jared (Hamlin’s partner on the podcast) asked Hamlin, “So, who do you think this favors?” Hamlin said, “It is wide up this year. One team will hit the setup and blow away the field, but no one knows who that will be until we get the cars on the track.
So, how are we supposed to predict who will win this week? I will post my early week driver rankings, but the picks for the GoodYear 400 will be based mostly off the practice speeds Saturday. They say, “Money buys speed”, so I would expect the drivers from Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing and Team Penske to be the best picks (so, that does not change much).
Here are the driver rankings based on the previous races at Darlington Raceway.
* These rankings will be updated after all of the practice sessions are completed and the field is set for the race.
FANTASY STATS FOR DARLINGTON
NASCAR can change the horsepower and tires can wear out quickly Sunday, but there is still an art to dancing with “The Lady in Black.” The drivers are going to need to search the track for grip and ride up against the wall without getting too many “Darlington Stripes.” Some drivers are better at this than others. I used the stats from the previous six races at Darlington Raceway to try and figure out who should be good Sunday.
Here are the stats from the last six races at Darlington Raceway, sorted by Driver Rating…
DARLINGTON RACE REWIND
The last race at Darlington (2025 Southern 500) was completely dominated by the Toyota’s. Denny Hamlin (Toyota) won the pole, led 12 laps and finished 7th. The race was “The Chase Briscoe Show”. Chase Briscoe (Toyota) qualified 2nd, won both Stages, led 309 of the 367 laps and won this crown jewel race. Tyler Reddick finished 2nd (Toyota), Erik Jones finished 3rd (Toyota), John H. Nemechek finished 4th (Toyota) and Bubba Wallace finished 6th (Toyota). Will the Toyota’s dominate again Sunday? I would not bet against them.
The best Ford in the race was Austin Cindric. He finished 12th. The best Chevy in the race was AJ Allemdinger. He finished 5th. None of the drivers from Hendrick Motorsports finished in the top-15. Ryan Blaney (finished 18th) and Joey Logano (finished 20th) did not look very good for Team Penske either.
One team typically hits on the setup and dominates the race at Darlington. Those teams all drove Toyota’s last year. We will find out what team (or manufacturer) that may be Saturday after practice.
You can watch the highlights of last year’s race here: 2025 Southern 500 Race Rewind
STRATEGY FOR DARLINGTON
SEASON-LONG GAME STRATEGY: The games that require our lineups to be in before qualifying (Driver Group Game and Speedway Collective) are going to be tough this week. We will not know which team will have the speed with the new 750-HP aero package until after practice Saturday. I plan to diversify my picks this week. I will have some drivers from Hendrick Motorsports and some from Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing. This should give us the best chance at hitting on the team that brings the speed to the track this weekend.
DFS GAME STRATEGY: We almost need to treat Darlington Raceway like a short track and load our lineups with the drivers with the best chance to lead the most laps. There are 293 laps in the race and usually one driver leads most of them. Chase Briscoe led 309 laps last year in the Southern 500, William Byron led 243 laps last March, Kyle Larson led 263 laps in the Southern 500 in 2024, Tyler Reddick led 174 laps in March of 2024, Denny Hamlin led 177 laps in the Southern 500 in 2023. One driver dominates the race, but it is never the same driver. We need to find the driver with the most speed from practice, because there is a good chance that he will led most of the laps in Sunday’s race.
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR DARLINGTON
I like to look at the odds early in the week and see if there are any drivers who are mispriced. I like to bet on these drivers before they get on the track for practice or qualifying and then we lose these odds. I am not suggesting that these drivers are the best picks in the field, but they are worth some a few bucks to return a nice profit.
DENNY HAMLIN (6-1): Hamlin won last week and he is going to be tough to beat Sunday at Darlington. The Goodyear 400 is going to be a tire management clinic. I expect Hamlin to take the field to school and teach them how to run “The Track Too Tough to Tame” without completely burning off the tires on a long run. I think the odds for Hamlin will go down after practice and qualifying, so I will go ahead and bet the No. 11 car now.
CHASE BRISCOE (9-1): Briscoe won the Southern 500 at Darlington is 2024 and then again last year. He stated this week that he has been doing a lot of work in the simulator to prepare for the Goodyear 400. Briscoe said, “The 750 HP Package makes these cars crash in every corner. We are going to need to use throttle management to make sure we make these corners as smooth as possible without burning up the tires in a short amount of time.” It sounds like Briscoe has it figured out and I like that fact that he can lean on Denny Hamlin for help. Briscoe has a good chance to win again at Darlington.
BUBBA WALLACE (25-1): Can Wallace win at Darlington? He is off to his best start of his career and it is no fluke. 23XI Racing has their cars dialed in this season and their Xfinity War Room at the Air-Speed Complex gives them in-race information to help keep their cars up front. Wallace won a “Crown Jewel Race” at the Brickyard last year. The Goodyear 400 is not a “Crown Jewel Race”, but it is at a Crown Jewel track. 25-1 seems like good odds for Wallace this week.
I will add a one or two drivers to the card that I think are Best Bets after qualifying Saturday.
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