The 2025 NASCAR Cup Season has made its way to the final race of the season. It is now time to crown the 2025 champions, but before I get into the preview for the championship race, I want to say THANK YOU!!! My goal every year is to provide you the best picks and teach you a little bit about how to be a better Fantasy NASCAR player. I appreciate you giving me the chance to be your “Fantasy NASCAR Crew Chief.” The 2025 season is almost complete and I already cannot wait for the 2026 season. Now, onto Phoenix…
PHOENIX SCHEDULE
This is Championship Weekend and that means NASCAR needs a championship schedule. All three series will have 55-minute in practice to dial in their cars or trucks and then they will be able to make adjustments before qualifying the next day. This is how the schedule used to be and it is refreshing to see this schedule back for the races at Phoenix.
Here is the schedule for the races at the Phoenix this weekend…
CHAMPIONSHIP FOUR
DENNY HAMLIN earned a spot in the Championship Four with his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. This will be the fifth-time Hamlin has made it to the Championship Four. He has never won, but he has been close. Hamlin never won in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. His average finishing position in the playoff races in this car is 9th. Hamlin finished 12th at New Hampshire on the tire that will be used Sunday.
CHASE BRISCOE earned a spot in the Championship Four with his win at Talladega. This is the first time that Briscoe has made the Championship Four. He won at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car in 2022. His average finishing position in the playoff races at Phoenix is 19th, but all of those races were with Stewart-Haas Racing and Briscoe had nothing to race for. Briscoe finished 10th at New Hampshire in September on the tire that will be used this weekend.
WILLIAM BYRON earned a spot in the Championship Four with his win last week at Martinsville. This is the third time that Byron has made the Championship Four. He won the March race at Phoenix in 2023. His average finishing position in the playoff races at Phoenix is 4.3. Byron finished 3rd at New Hampshire in September on the tire that will be used this weekend.
KYLE LARSON earned a spot in the Championship Four on points. This will be the third time that Larson has made the Championship Four. He is the only driver in the Championship Four this weekend with a championship title. Larson hasn’t won a race since the race at Kansas in May. Larson also has never won a race a Phoenix in the Gen-7 car. His average finishing position in the playoff races at Phoenix is 5.3. Larson finished 7th at New Hampshire in September on the tire that will be used Sunday.
FANTASY STATS FOR PHOENIX
The Cup Series last competed at Phoenix Raceway in March. Goodyear brought an “option tire” to the track and the teams had a choice to use the harder tire or the softer tire in the race. Goodyear decided NOT to bring the tire that was used at Phoenix in March to the race this weekend. Instead, they will use the tire that was run at New Hampshire, North Wilksboro (All-Star Race) and Richmond. Christopher Bell, Joey Logano and Ross Chastain tested this tire at New Hampshire in March. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano led 216 of the 301 laps on this tire at New Hampshire in September. These drivers get a bump up in the Driver Rankings this week.
So, how do we handicap the race at Phoenix? The Championship Race has a history of playing out like the race at New Hampshire in September, when the same tire compound is used. That is the case this weekend. I will give the race in New Hampshire extra weight in the Driver Rankings this week. I will also use the stats from the races at Richmond, North Wilksboro and the last three playoff races at Phoenix (Gen-7 car era).
Here are the stats in the last three playoff races at Phoenix and the races at Richmond and New Hampshire this summer, sorted by Driver Rating.…
PHOENIX STRATEGY
SEASON-LONG GAME STRATEGY: This is the easiest race of the season to strategize for… Simply use the best drivers you have left. There is no tomorrow, so there is no need to save allocations. It would be a good idea to use as many of the Championship Four drivers as possible in your lineups for Phoenix. These drivers typically get a lot of room to race on the track and they usually finish in the top-five.
I will have my full lineup for FanTrax and the Speedway Collective games posted Wednesday.
EARLY WEEK PICKS FOR THE PHOENIX
ONE & DONE PICK: TODD GILLILAND
FANTASY LIVE PICKS
* I am out of allocations with DENNY HAMLIN, WILLIAM BYRON, KYLE LARSON and CHRISTOPHER BELL. All off these drivers would be in my lineup with CHASE BRISCOE if I could.
FANTRAX PICKS
SPEEDWAY COLLECTIVE
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR PHOENIX
One of the Championship Drivers has won four of the last five playoff races at Phoenix. Ross Chastain was the only non-playoff driver to win at Phoenix over the last five years. We will not win much money by betting on the Championship Four this week, but they are the most likely to win Sunday.
I have bets on CHASE BRISCOE (24-1) and WILLIAM BYRON (8-1) to win the championship. I am not betting them to win Sunday. Instead, I will hedge my bets and place some money on DENNY HAMLIN (+400) and KYLE LARSON (+500) to win Sunday. I recommend you do the same, if you have some money down on a few of the drivers to win the championship at Phoenix.
Here are my Best Bets if you are simply wagering on the Championship Race…
WILLIAM BYRON (+600): This should be the year that Byron wins his first championship. Byron is no stranger to winning big races in NASCAR. He won back-to-back Daytona 500s. Byron also won on a similar track in Iowa this year. Byron has the best average finishing position in the playoff races at Phoenix out of all of the playoff drivers (4.3). His pit crew ranks the second-best out of the Championship Four (Denny Hamlin’s crew ranks as the best). Byron also had the best finish out of the Championship Four in the race at New Hampshire in September (Goodyear will bring the same time to the track this weekend). All of the stats suggest that Byron is the Best Bet to win the Championship Race at Phoenix.
RYAN BLANEY (+700) / JOEY LOGANO (+1000): Team Penske got shut out of the Championship Race. I would not be surprised if they stole the show Sunday and completely dominated the race at Phoenix. That is what they did on the same tire at New Hampshire in September. Blaney led 116 laps, won Stage 1 and won the race. Logano led 147 laps, won Stage 2 and finished 4th. These two Team Penske drivers won two of the three races in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. I would not be surprised if one of these two drivers wins again Sunday.
* I will update these picks after qualifying this weekend.
Follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook