The NASCAR Cup Series will join the Xfinity Series and the Truck Series at Pocono Raceway this weekend. It is nice to have all three series back on the track. Pocono is not the best track for the Gen-7 car for the Cup Series, but the Xfinity Series and Truck Series typically put on a good show at the “Tricky Triangle.” It should be fun to see how these three races play out this weekend.
Here is the schedule for the on-track activity at Pocono Raceway….
POCONO PREVIEW
Pocono is a 2.5-mile, triangle-shaped, flat track. Each corner of the track is completely different. Crew chiefs can make their car turn perfectly in one corner and horribly in the other two. Finding the balance to have the car decent in all three corners is the key to running upfront at Pocono (that is easier said than done). To make this track even a bit more “tricky”, we can add in fuel-mileage. The NASCAR teams often run the races at Pocono like a road course race. They try to make it to the checkered-flag with just enough fuel to finish the race. The tires do not matter much at Pocono.
As complicated as a race at Pocono may sound, it has been pretty easy for a handful of drivers. Denny Hamlin is clearly the “King of Pocono” with his seven wins at the track (It would be eight if he wasn’t disqualified in 2022 after winning the race). William Byron and Ryan Blaney are close to taking the crown from King Hamlin. The best sleeper picks are Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones. These two Michigan natives seem to run well in Pennsylvania. We cannot forget about Carson Hocevar. He only has one race at Pocono in the Cup Series on his resume, but Hocevar has had a lot of speed on the large intermediate tracks this season. I will build my lineups around the drivers listed above this week.
FANTASY STATS FOR POCONO
So, how do we handicap a race that is so tough for the crew chiefs to hit the perfect set-up for? I am using the stats from the three races at Pocono in the Gen-7 car, the combination of stats from Indianapolis last year (another large, flat track) and the stats from the recent races on the large ovals this year (Texas, Kansas, Charlotte and Michigan). This should give us an idea of which drivers are good at Pocono, which drivers are good on large flat tracks and which drivers have had speed on the large intermediate tracks this season.
Here are the stats from the Gen-7 car races at Pocono, the race at Indy last year and the five large intermediate tracks races over the last two months, sorted by Driver Rating…
EARLY WEEK PICKS FOR POCONO
ONE & DONE PICK: ERIK JONES
FANTASY LIVE PICKS
FANTRAX PICKS
SPEEDWAY COLLECTIVE
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR POCONO
Here are my Early-Week, Best Bets for the Great American Getaway 400…
DENNY HAMLIN (+450) and RYAN BLANEY (+700) are two of my favorite drivers this week. Hamlin and Blaney typically do not post the fastest speeds in practice because they focus on handling and do not trim out their cars for speed. I doubt their odds will be any lower after practice, so I will wait to see how they look in practice before I bet them. I want drivers now who are mispriced on the odds board.
WILLIAM BYRON (+800): I have Byron ranked right behind Denny Hamlin right now. You can make an argument that Byron should be the favorite. He dominated the last two races on large ovals (Charlotte and Michigan) but did not win the race. There is no reason to believe the No. 24 car will not dominate at the Tricky Triangle. +800 seems to be good odds for a driver running as well as Byron on the large intermediate tracks.
TYLER REDDICK (+1000): Reddick should have the second-best odds behind Denny Hamlin if you go by the stats. Reddick has the best average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Pocono. He finished two of the three races in the top-two. We get a discount with Reddick because of his recent runs on the large intermediate tracks. Denny Hamlin knows what it takes to set-up a car for Pocono. I am sure he will have his 23XI Racing cars ready to go this week. I will take the discount with Reddick.
TY GIBBS (+2000): Gibbs has shown a lot of improvement recently. He dominated the race last week in Mexico and he finished 3rd in the race two weeks ago in Michigan. I believe in momentum and Gibbs has it. He won the pole and was dominating the race at Pocono last year before his engine expired. I know betting a driver who has never won in the Cup Series may be dumb, but many drivers got their first win at the Tricky Triangle. I will bet that Gibbs can be added to the list Sunday.
BUBBA WALLACE (+2500): I like the Toyota’s this week and especially the cars associated with Denny Hamlin. Pocono just feels like a track that Wallace can win at. He has finished his last 4 races at the Tricky Triangle in the top-11. He also finished 4th two weeks ago at Michigan. The speed from Michigan should translate into speed at Pocono, so I will take a chance with Wallace Sunday.
* I will update these picks this weekend.
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