The NASCAR Cup Series will be joined by the Xfinity Series and the Truck Series at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. The race at Texas will be the second trip to the Lone Star State for the Cup Series (they previously raced at COTA) and the second race on a 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter track this season (Las Vegas Motor Speedway). We do not get a lot of exciting races with the Gen-7 car, but the trips to the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks have been the best on the schedule. Hopefully that trend continues this weekend in the Wurth 400.
Here is the schedule for the on-track activity at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend…
TEXAS PREVIEW
I thought picking the winner at Talladega last week would be hard, but selecting the driver who will be in Victory Lane in Texas is no piece of cake as well. There have been eight different winners in the last eight races at Texas Motor Speedway. William Byron, Brad Keselowski and Chase Briscoe have finished every race in the Gen-7 car at Texas Motor Speedway in the top-10. Kyle Larson has led the most laps in the Gen-7 car in Texas and Bubba Wallace is the only driver who has led over 100 laps in a race at Texas in the Gen-7 car. Tyler Reddick has scored the most DFS Points in the Gen-7 car at Texas Motor Speedway. Most of those points came in the race he dominated when the race was 500 miles in length. The races at Texas are now 400-miles long. Any of the drivers listed above should be good picks for your Fantasy NASCAR lineups Sunday.
FANTASY STATS FOR TEXAS
The most similar track to Texas Motor Speedway is Las Vegas Motor Speedway. We can learn a lot about which drivers may run up front Sunday by looking at the stats from the race in Las Vegas earlier this season. Homestead-Miami Speedway is a different shape and has different banking, but it is still a 1.5-mile track. I combined the stats from Texas in the Gen-7 car with the stats from Las Vegas and Homestead this year to handicap the race Sunday.
EARLY WEEK PICKS FOR TEXAS
ONE & DONE PICK: WILLIAM BYRON
FANTASY LIVE PICKS
FANTRAX PICKS
* I will post the FanTrax article on Wednesday with my breakdown of each driver.
SPEEDWAY COLLECTIVE
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR TEXAS
KYLE LARSON (+550): There is no doubt that the No. 5 car is going to be fast this weekend, but is Larson worth a bet at +550? He has won four of the last 10 races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks. He dominated many of the races he did not win. Larson should be in Victory Lane Sunday if his pit crew avoids mistakes and if the car can keep up with his talent this week.
BUBBA WALLACE (+1800): Texas is the best 1.5-mile, intermediate track for Wallace. He led 111 laps and finished 3rd at Texas in 2023. He came back last year and finished 5th. Wallace also finished 3rd in the last race on a 1.5-mile track (Homestead-Miami Speedway). He won at Kansas in 2022 in the Gen-7 car, so he proved he can get to Victory Lane on tracks similar to Texas. +1800 seems to be a good value for Wallace Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT (+2000): We typically do not see the defending race winner open up at odds of 20-1, but that is what we have this week with Elliott. He has not won very many races in the Gen-7 car, but I will take a chance with him in Texas. I thought about adding William Byron to my card, but he has not won very many races on the 1.5-mile tracks either. I rather take the value with Elliott now and add Byron after qualifying if he looks good Saturday.
* I will update these picks this weekend.
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