The NASCAR Cup Series travels to the Irish Hills of Michigan this week for another race at an intermediate track. This will be the fifth race for the Cup Series on a large intermediate track (Las Vegas, Kansas, Texas and Charlotte are the others). Michigan is not like the other tracks though. The speeds are much higher at Michigan and the draft comes into play on the front and back-stretches. That makes this race more unpredictable and a bit like the superspeedway race in Atlanta. Will the Toyota’s be able to make another trip to Victory Lane this weekend? It should be fun to see how it all plays out. The FireKeepers Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
DFS STATS FOR MICHIGAN
Michigan is a high-speed track. The racing surface is smooth and the tires do not wear-out much. Goodyear brought the same right-side tire that was used in Nashville last week and the other intermediate tracks this year. The left-side tire will be different. It is a new tire specifically designed for Michigan’s high speeds and heavy loads. I doubt this tire will wear out any faster, so we can expect a lot of two-tire stops Sunday.
So, how do we handicap the FireKeepers Casino 400? Most of the teams say that Michigan is a combination of Atlanta and Kansas. The drivers run wide-open around those tracks, just like they will this weekend at Michigan. I will use the stats from all of the intermediate tracks and combine it with the stats from the last three races in the Gen-7 car at Michigan. I will use the stats from Kansas as a tie-breaker, if I cannot decide between two drivers for my DFS lineups.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Michigan International Speedway and the races on the intermediate tracks this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal schedule Saturday at Michigan International Speedway. The teams were separated into two groups and they had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Despite being a two-mile oval track, most of the teams were able to make a long run in practice.
I looked at how the practice speeds translated into race speed at Michigan Last year. Only three drivers who posted a top-10 speed in practice were able to finish the race in the top-10 (Chris Buescher, Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace). Only three drivers who posted top-10 speed on the 10-lap average speed chart finished the race in the top-10 (Chris Buescher, Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace). These drivers showed up on both speed charts and qualified in the top-10. The safest picks this week will be the drivers who show up on both speed charts and qualify in the top-10 too.
The drivers who showed up in the top-10 of the single-lap and 10-lap speed charts and qualified in the top-10 include: Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Michigan International Speedway….
STRATEGY FOR MICHIGAN
The race Sunday is scheduled for 200 laps (400 miles). That means there are 50 points available for leading laps and 90 points available for fastest laps (140 dominator points). The draft comes into play a bit at Michigan International Speedway and this causes the laps led to get spread throughout the field. Five drivers typically lead between 20-40 laps in the race. The fastest laps are typically scored by the drivers running in the middle of the pack. The main dominators in the three Gen-7 car races at Michigan have scored between 13-16 dominator points. It would be good to have those bonus points in our lineup, but we can find a few drivers who can score 12-15 place differential points too. I plan to have one or two dominators in my lineup and try to hit on the drivers who can score some place differential points and finish in the top-10.
WINNING LINEUPS AT MICHIGAN (2022-2025)
It may not be a bad idea to play the drivers from Michigan this week. Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones have been in three of the last four winning lineups at their home track. Carson Hocevar is also from Michigan and he will have a good chance of scoring well this week too.
Ryan Preece has been the best value pick at Michigan. This is an important race for RFK Racing because it is the home track for Brad Keselowski. All of their cars run well at Michigan. Preece has been in the last two winning lineups at the FireKeeepers Casino 400.
All four lineups had two drivers who started the race in the top-10 and the rest were drivers who started deep in the field and scored a lot of place differential points. I expect this strategy to be the winning combination again Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
Instead of breaking down each driver this week, I am going to simply write why I like this Cash Contest lineup. Tyler Reddick was a lot fastest than the field in practice. He was going to be my top dominator, even when Denny Hamlin starting on the pole. With Hamlin out of the way, Reddick has a clear path to dominate the race. He is a lock for Cash Contest lineups…. I originally had William Byron as my second dominator, but the No. 24 car has to start in the back today. I will pivot to Chase Elliott. The No. 9 car is usually really good when it qualifies up front.…. Ross Chastain (starts 32nd) and Brad Keselowski (starts 26th) are locks for Cash Contest lineups. They both have a history of running well in Michigan and they both have the opportunity to score a lot of place differential points. It is hard to trust Austin Cindric (starts 31st) and Alex Bowman (starts 29th), but they are both from large teams that should have a lot of speed. Cindric and Bowman should score 10-15 place differential points and be solid picks for the Cash Contest lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
Tyler Reddick is by far the top dominator in the race, but his ownership is going to be insane. I will fade the Toyota’s in my Tournament Contest lineup and play Chase Elliott as my top dominator. Elliott finished 2nd in Las Vegas and led the most laps and won the race in Texas. Elliott is always good when he qualifies up front….. Ryan Blaney could get over looked. He starts 19th. Blaney should score 10-15 place differential points and has the upside to score some dominator points too. Ross Chastain (starts 32nd), Brad Keselowski (starts 26th), Ryan Preece (starts 27th) and Alex Bowman (starts 29th) should be four of the top drivers for place differential points today. This lineup could easily score 70-80 place differential points, which would cancel out the laps led a Tyler Reddick lineup would score. This lineup has a lot of upside to win a Tournament Contest.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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