The NASCAR Cup Series travels to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend. Most people will remember the race at Atlanta last year because it had the closest top-three finish in NASCAR history. I will remember the race because I had the largest payout in DraftKings for the 2024 season. I stacked Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch and Daniel Suarez based on their stats heading into the race. They finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I also had Bubba Wallace (finished 5th), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (finished 6th) and Corey LaJoie (started 32nd and finished 13th). It was not a tough race to predict. The $3 Entry into the Hot Rod Contest returned a $180 profit (I had to split the winnings since my picks tend to be popular). I will try to have the same results Sunday.
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
Atlanta Motor Speedway was reconfigured in 2022. The track now has 28 degrees of banking and that causes the Atlanta to race like a Superspeedway. NASCAR no longer practices on the Superspeedway tracks, so that means the Cup Series cars were unloaded from their haulers and sent to the pit road for qualifying. The teams set the field for the Ambetter Health 400 Saturday morning and they will race Sunday afternoon.
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Atlanta is scheduled for 260 laps (390 miles). That means there are 65 points available for leading laps and 117 points available for fastest laps (182 dominator points). The popular strategy on the Superspeedway tracks is to fade the front and start the drivers in the back with the best chance to score place differential points. That is not the best strategy at Atlanta. The trend in the six races on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway is for one driver to lead roughly 72 laps and score five fastest laps (20.25 dominator points). I expect the drivers to ride single file and save fuel in the first two Stages. That will allow one driver to lead a lot of laps. I plan to play at least one dominator in my lineups Sunday. (Austin Cindric led 92 laps last year and Joey Logano led 140 laps in 2023). The Team Penske drivers should have a good chance to lead the most laps Sunday.
ATLANTA STATS
I wrote above that I plan to play at least one dominator in my lineup since this race tends to have a drive lead over 70 laps in the race. We cannot ignore the drivers who start in the back with the best chance to score place differential points. The Atlanta Stats chart posted below shows the drivers who have scored the most points in DFS Contests on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway. Most of the drivers at the top of the list are mid-tier or lower-tier drivers in the Cup Series. We will need to fit some of these drivers into our lineups Sunday.
Here are the average DraftKings Points at Atlanta using the Gen-7 car…
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
** This model is not as accurate at Superspeedways as it is at the shorter tracks.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,500): I will take a chance with Elliott at his home track. He won on the reconfigured track at Atlanta in 2022. His 8.6 average finishing position on the new Atlanta Superspeedway is third-best in the Cup Series. Elliott should score a lot of place differential points from his 19th starting position Sunday.
DENNY HAMLIN ($9,100): Hamlin was not shy about making his thoughts known about how his competitors race on the Superspeedway tracks. Will anyone help him Sunday? Hamlin starts 37th and he will have a lot of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in the back with him. Hamlin should easily be one of the top scoring drivers in DFS Sunday and a lock for all Cash Contest lineups.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($8,200): Bell is another Joe Gibbs Racing driver who starts in the back at Atlanta. Bell is not known as a great Superspeedway driver, but he finished four of the six Superspeedway races last year in the top-six. That includes a fourth-place finish in the last race at Atlanta. I do not need Bell to do much from his 32nd starting position. Anything inside the top-15 would return significant value.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($8,100): Suarez won at Atlanta last year and it was not a fluke. He finished 2nd, 1st and 2nd in his last three races at Atlanta. Do not worry about his starting position. Suarez had an average starting position of 27th in those three races. He should have no problem moving to the front from his 29th starting position Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,000): Chastain has an average finishing position of 12th on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway in the Gen-7 car. That is sixth-best in the Cup Series. Trackhouse Racing always dials in more handling and less speed for their cars at Atlanta. That is why Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain always qualify outside the top-25 and finish inside the top-10 at this track. I expect the same from the No. 1 car Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($7,200): I had to decide between Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Corey LoJoie and Ty Gibbs for the last spot in this lineup. All three drivers should be good picks, but I do not trust Stenhouse and LoJoie is good, but his team in not. I will use another driver form Joe Gibbs Racing in my Cash Contest lineup. I expect Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs to work together from the back of the pack Sunday. They all should score a lot of place differential points for your DFS lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron will have a lot of momentum after his win in the Daytona 500. Byron won two of the six races on the reconfigured track at Atlanta and he has led the second most laps. Byron has finished nine of his last 11 Superspeedway races in the top-10. The No. 24 car has a great chance to win Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,700): Pairing Logano with William Byron in this lineup gives me the two drivers who have led the most laps and scored the most dominator points on the reconfigured Atlanta. They also won four of the six races. I am hoping that most people fade Logano since he starts fourth. Logano has a good chance to be one of the top-five scoring drivers in your DraftKings contest.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,500): I really did not want to play the same drivers in the Cash and Tournament Contest lineup, but I could not find a driver who fit the lineup as well as Elliott. The No. 9 car was the best at pushing in the draft at Daytona. There should be a lot of drivers who are willing to work with Elliott Sunday. He has a good chance to win his second race on the reconfigured track in his home state.
TYLER REDDICK ($7,800): The Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are going to be popular from the back of the field. I will pivot to another Toyota and play Reddick. He is a boom or bust driver on the Superspeedways. Reddick finished started 23rd and finished sixth in the last race at Atlanta. He starts 18th Sunday. Reddick will be one of the top drivers for your DFS lineup if he can finish sixth this weekend.
COREY LAJOIE ($6,200): LaJoie looked pretty good last week at Daytona. He ran up front, led some laps and finished 22nd. LaJoie should be much better this week. Atlanta is his best track. LaJoie starts 35th and he has an average finishing position of 14th at Atlanta. LaJoie was in the winning lineup at Atlanta last year. I think he can do it again Sunday.
RILEY HERBST ($6,000): The Toyota’s will be a popular play from the back of the field, but I expect Herbst to be the lowest owned Toyota driver from the back of the pack. Herbst should be working with Denny Hamlin from the back. Hebst starts 27th and his average finishing position in his last three Cup Series races on the Superspeedways is 16th. I will take a chance with the lower-owned Hebst Sunday.
* Do not be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table this week
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
* Do not be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table this week
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* Do not be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table this week
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