The Cup Series travels to Thunder Valley to go short track racing at Bristol Motor Speedway. This high-banked, half-mile track puts on some of the best racing on the schedule. I know Kyle Larson led 92% of the laps in the Bristol Night Race last year, but that typically does not happen at Bristol. I expect a lot of strategies to come into play with the softer tire that Goodyear is bringing to the track this week. The Food City 500 is scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
DFS STATS FOR BRISTOL
Bristol Motor Speedway is a unique track. This short track is .533-miles in length and the banking is 28 degrees in the corners. That means the cars will carry a lot of speed as they climb the hill into the corners and even more speed as they drive down the track onto the straightaways. This track is truly like riding a roller coaster. Some drivers are better than others at this type of racing. I like to look at the driver’s track history to handicap the races at Bristol.
Here is the driver’s Average DraftKings Points in the last four races at Bristol Motor Speedway…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal schedule this weekend. The teams were broken up into two groups. Each group had 25-minutes to dial in their cars for the race. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. So, how did practice speeds translate into race speed at Bristol last year? Denny Hamlin posted the 30th fastest speed, with the 22nd fastest long-run speed at Bristol last year. He then went out and led 163 laps and won the race. Ty Gibbs posted the 34th fastest speed, with the 29th fastest long-run speed in practice last year. Gibbs went out and led 137 laps, won both Stages and finished ninth in the race.
The race this week looks like it is going to play out just like it did last spring at Bristol. Starting position will not matter, practice speeds does not matter, but the driver’s ability to save the tires over the long runs will mean everything. We can learn more by looking at last year’s race results in the spring than we can by looking at the practice speeds Saturday. I posted the practice speeds, just in case you are interested in them.
Here are the lap times from the practice sessions Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The Food City 500 is scheduled for 500 laps. That means there are 350 dominator points up for grabs. We MUST score as many of these dominator points as possible.
Kyle Larson led 462 of the 500 laps in the Bristol Night Race last year, but that is not the trend at Bristol. There are typically two main dominators in the spring race. One driver leads roughly 162 laps and scores 48 fastest laps (62.1 dominator points). The other main dominator leads roughly 138 laps and scores 46 fastest laps (55.2 dominator points). There are also three drivers who lead over 30 laps and score over 15 fastest laps. We MUST pay up for the two drivers we think will lead the most laps Sunday. We should cash every lineup if we are able to score the 117 dominator points that they are projected to score. We will have a good chance to win the top prize in our contests if we are able to select the top-two dominators and pair them with one or two of the drivers who are projected to lead over 30 laps. It really does not matter what our cheap drivers do as long as we have the top dominators in our lineups.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,100): The soft tire that Goodyear brought to the track last year played right into Hamlin’s hands. He qualified third, lead 163 laps and he went to Victory Lane. He also qualified second, led 142 laps and went to Victory Lane at Bristol in 2023. Hamlin is going to need to lead a lot of laps to justify his high price. The tires look like they are going to wear-out just like they did last year. Hamlin is my top dominator Sunday.
KYLE LARSON ($11,000): Larson absolutely smoked the field in the last race at Bristol. He led 462 of the 500 laps, won both Stages and finished 2nd in the race. Larson has finished 1st, 5th, 2nd, 5th and 1st in his last five races at Bristol. That is an average finishing position of 2.8. Larson competed in the Truck and Xfinity Series races this weekend, so he should have his rhythm down and ready to be one of the top dominators Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($8,400): It has been hard to trust Gibbs over the last year, but he is starting to turn it around. Gibbs finished 13th at Martinsville two weeks ago and 9th last week at Darlington. Now he gets to race at his best track. Gibbs led 137 laps, won both Stages and finished 9th in this race last year. He also led 102 laps and finished 5th in 2023. $8,400 is a good price for a driver who was one of the top dominators in two of the last four races at Bristol.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,000): Bowman has a lot going for him Sunday. He starts on the pole and has the No. 1 pit stall. That is always good. Bowman is also good at Bristol. He finished both races in Thunder Valley in the top-10 last year. That includes a 4th-place finish in the spring. Bowman is one of the best at saving his tires over a long run. The No. 48 car has a good chance to be one of the top dominators Sunday.
JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($6,000): Nemechek was not very good in many races last year, but he looked awesome in the spring race at Bristol. Nemechek qualified 26th and managed his tires perfectly on the long run. Nemechek raced his way through the field and finished 6th. That was good enough for 56.9 DK Points. Nemechek managed his tires perfectly in practice when he posted the 6th fastest long-run speed. Nemechek is my favorite “punt play” Sunday.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,400): LaJoie will be back behind the wheel of the No. 1 car for Rick Ware Racing. LaJoie finished 21st in the spring race at Bristol last year. I know that was in a Spire Motorsports car and he will be in a Rick Ware Racing car Sunday, but this race should be all about saving the tires over the long run. LaJoie knows how to do that better than some of the drivers starting in front of him. He should move up 10+ places Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,100): The soft tire that Goodyear brought to the track last year played right into Hamlin’s hands. He qualified third, lead 163 laps and he went to Victory Lane. He also qualified second, led 142 laps and went to Victory Lane at Bristol in 2023. Hamlin is going to need to lead a lot of laps to justify his high price. His track history in the Gen-7 car suggests that he has a good chance to be one of the top dominators Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,600): I wasn’t planning on using Chastain this weekend, but then he went out and qualified 35th. I was curious to see how Chastain ranks on high tire-wear tracks and how he does coming from the back. Chastain ranks 11th best on the tracks that require a driver to manage his tire-wear over a long run. Chastain started dead last in the spring race at Bristol last year. He managed his tires and finished 15th. That was good enough for 49 DK Points. He should score similar points Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($8,400): I am asking for trouble by playing Gibbs in both lineups. I thought about pivoting to Chris Buescher, but I wanted another dominator in my lineup. Gibbs has been one of the top dominator in two of the last four races at Bristol, so he gets the spot in this lineup.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,000): I am going to trust Bowman and play him in both lineups. There are a lot of laps in this race and a lot of dominator points up for grabs. I want to score as many of these dominator points as possible. Bowman should lead at least the first 50 laps in the race. That should be good enough for him to return value at only $8K Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($7,800): Keselowski could be a sneaky play to be one of the dominators Sunday. He tested this tire at Bristol last year and then he went out and finished 3rd in the spring race. If this race plays out like it did last year, Keselowski will be one of the best picks in the field. He is a great value pick for $7,800.
COLE CUSTER ($5,900): It has been a minute since Custer competed in a Cup Series race at Bristol. His last start was really good though. Custer started 11th and finished 8th in his only start in the Gen-7 car at Bristol in 2022. That is a small sample size, but it is also pretty good. I will take a chance with Custer as a “punt play” in my lineup.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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