The Cup Series will travel to Sonoma Raceway this weekend for another road course race. This will be the third road course race in the last month. The Cup Series will also race at Watkins Glen next month, so the drivers will get a lot of practice turning left and right this summer.
The DFS picks in the road course races have been so close, but yet so far. Michael McDowell was dominating the race in our DFS lineup last week and then he had a mechanical issue. That seems to be the theme in 2025. Hopefully the cars we select this week can make it to the checkered flag in one piece. The Toyota Save Mart 350 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
DFS STATS FOR SONOMA
The Cup Series has competed at three road course tracks this season (COTA, Mexico and Chicago). The best way to handicap the race Sunday is to use the stats from the three road course races and combine them with the stats from the three races at Sonoma in the Gen-7 car. This should give us a good idea of which drivers will be running up front in wine country.
Here are the average DraftKings Points at for the three races at Sonoma Raceway and the three road course races this year.…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR split the teams up into two groups based on the metrics from the race last week in Chicago. Each group was given 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Toyota Save Mart 350. The teams then lined up for group qualifying to set the field for Sunday’s race. The cars were impounded after qualifying, so any changes to the cars will force the drivers to start in the back Sunday.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice at Sonoma Raceway…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Sonoma is scheduled for 110 laps (219 miles). That means there are 27.5 points available for leading laps and 49.5 points available for fastest laps (77 dominator points). The trend in the last three races at Sonoma Raceway is for one driver to lead 35 laps and score 14 fastest laps (15.05 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 32 laps and scores 6 fastest laps (10.7 dominator points) and a third driver leads roughly 20 laps and scores 10 fastest laps (9.5 dominator points). Shane van Gisbergen did not compete in these races. SVG has a good chance to dominate the race Sunday and turn it into a two dominator race, instead of the three dominators that we have seen in the past.
Shane van Gisbergen is the key to winning your DFS Contest Sunday. DraftKings has SVG priced at $12,500. That is $2K more than any driver in the field. Is he worth his steep price?…..
Shane van Gisbergen has averaged 59 DraftKings Points and 53 FanDuel Points on the road courses this year. Alex Bowman has average 51 points on DraftKings and 51 points on FanDuel. Christopher Bell has averaged 50 points on Draftkings and 49 points on FanDuel. Chase Elliott has averaged 47 points on DraftKings and 48 points on FanDuel….. My point is that SVG has a great chance to score the most points Sunday, but he is not going to destroy the field. There simply are not enough dominator points in this race and SVG is going to give up track position because this is a strategy race. SVG has a good chance to be in the winning lineup, but he may not be worth his price tag. I will have SVG in 40% of my lineups and fade him in the other 60%.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($9,300): McDowell has been awesome on the road courses this year. He finished 5th in Mexico and McDowell was the only driver who could out-run Shane van Gisbergen in Chicago until he had a mechanical issue. McDowell finished 2nd, 7th and 3rd in his three races at Sonoma in the Gen-7 car. He should finish in the top-10 again Sunday.
AJ ALLMENDINGER ($8,800): Allmendinger has the talent to finish up front in any of the road course races. Can Kaulig Racing give Allmendinger a car that matches his talent? That is the question that needs to be answered and it was last week in Chicago. ALlmendinger finished 6th last week and he finished 6th in his last two races in Sonoma. His talent should take Allemdinger to a top-10 finish again Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,600): Buescher has been the most consistent driver at Sonoma in the Gen-7 car. Buescher finished 2nd, 4th and 3rd in his three races at Sonoma in the Gen-7 car. His 117.7 Driver Rating is also the best in the series at Sonoma. Buescher did not post the fastest speed in practice, but he typically doesn’t run well on Saturday. His stats at Sonoma are just too good to pass up Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,200): Bowman finished 9th at COTA, 4th in Mexico and 8th at Chicago this year. He has run well at Sonoma, but Bowman has not been able to get the results he deserved at this track. Bowman is almost like Chris Buescher on the road courses. He will consistently finish in the top-10 and every once in a while Bowman will sneak into Victory Lane (like he did at Chicago last year). That makes Bowman a good pick for your DFS lineups.
KYLE BUSCH ($8,000): Busch desperately needs a win in order to secure a spot in the playoffs. I think he could get it Sunday “If” Shane van Gisbergen was not in the field. Busch is tied with Kyle Larson for the most wins at Sonoma (2). He finished 2nd in this race in 2023 and he has been one of the best road course racers this year. Sonoma is the best road course track for Busch so I will have him in my lineup this week.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,100): Can we trust Suarez this weekend? He won the race at Sonoma in 2022 and he leads the Cup Series with 47 laps led in the Gen-7 car at this track. Suarez is racing for a contract with another team next year, so he should be extra motivated to run well at a track he has had success at. I will take a chance with Suarez in my Tournament Contest lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): I wasn’t planning on playing Byron because he has been in a slump for a month now, but the No. 24 car is too fast to fade. Byron posted the second-fastest speed in practice in his group and then he went out and qualified 3rd. Byron was in Group A for qualifying and the speed did not have as much speed in it when he went out. Byron has the talent and the speed to compete for a win Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,800): Elliott has never won at Sonoma, but that does not mean he is a bad pick this week. Elliott finished 6 of his last 7 races in Sonoma in the top-8. The only race he failed to finish in the top-8 was in 2019 when his engine blew while dominating the race. Elliott did not post a blazing fast speed in practice and he did not qualify in the top-10. I am hoping that scares some people away from the No. 9 car. I trust Elliott to run up front Sunday.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($9,300): McDowell was in Group A for practice and qualifying because of his poor finish last week at Chicago. The track did not have as much speed in it, so McDowell looks slower on the speed charts than he actually is. He told the TruTV Team after practice, “We started off slow because the track changed a lot from last year. We made some adjustments and I think we have what we need to win Sunday.” He had the speed last week to win. I will take a chance with McDowell for place differential points and finishing points Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,400): Chastain is not the first driver that comes to mind when people think about racing in wine country, but he should be near the top of the list. Chastain finished 5th, 10th, 7th and 7th in his last four races in Sonoma. Chastain posted the 4th fastest speed in practice and the No. 1 car qualified 4th for the race. I doubt that Chastain will have too much ownership, so I will play the No. 1 car Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($7,200): Most people fade Logano on the road courses and that is a good strategy, except for the races in Sonoma. Logano started 17th and finished 3rd at Sonoma in 2023 (He scored 56.8 DK Points) and last year Logano won the pole, led 16 laps and finished 21st (caught up in a wreck that wasn’t his fault). Logano always looks slow in practice at Sonoma and then he pops up in the top-10 when the checkered-flag is waived. No one will play Logano, so I will take the No. 22 team in a strategy race.
AUSTIN DILLON ($5,300): Does Dillon suck? Yes. Should we fade him Sunday? No….. Dillon isn’t the best road course racer in the Cup Series, but he isn’t the worst either. Dillon has an average finishing position of 17.4 when he finishes the races at Sonoma. He has finished 9 of his 10 races at this track, so the odds suggest he should make it to the checkered flag. He will score at least 41 DraftKings Points if he can finish at his average (17th) Sunday. That is not bad for $5,300.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
Follow me on (X) Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook