Let me start by wishing everyone a happy and safe 4th of July weekend. The NASCAR Cup Series will returns to Chicago to race around the streets of Grant Park this weekend. This will be the third street-course race for the Cup Series in Chicago. The first two races had rain and one was shortened because of darkness. Will this be the race when NASCAR finally gets to see what the Cup Series drivers can do on a dry track in Chicago? They moved back the start of the race to increase the chances of getting the entire race in this weekend. Hopefully Mother Nature cooperates too. The Grant Park 165 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on TNT.
DFS STATS FOR CHICAGO
So, how do we handicap the Grant Park 165? The stats for the first two races in the streets of Chicago were skewed because of the rain and darkness shortening one of the races. I am still going to look at the stats from those two races to help predict who will run up front Sunday. The Chicago Street Course is much tighter than other road courses, but we can still use the data from the two road course races this year (COTA and Mexico). The drivers who ran well in the two races in Chicago, the two races on the road courses this year, posted some fast laps in practice and qualified up front, should be the best drivers for your Fantasy NASCAR lineups Sunday.
Here are the average DraftKings Points at for the two races in Chicago and the two road course races this year.…
* You can see by looking at the chart above that finishing position points and place differential points are more important than dominator points on the road courses.
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR split the teams up into two groups based on the metrics from the race last week in Atlanta. Each group was given 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the Grant Park 165. The teams then lined up for group qualifying to set the field for Sunday’s race. The cars were impounded after qualifying, so any changes to the cars will force the drivers to start in the back Sunday.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice on the Chicago Street Course…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Atlanta is scheduled for 75 laps (165 miles). That means there are 18.75 points available for leading laps and 33.75 points available for fastest laps (52.5 dominator points). The trend in the two races on the streets of Chicago is for one driver to lead 30 laps and score 15 fastest laps (14.25 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 18 laps and scores 3 fastest laps (5.85 dominator points) and a third driver leads roughly 10 laps and scores 12 fastest laps (7.9 dominator points).
It is hard to fade Shane van Gisbergen, but his ownership is going to be extremely high Sunday. William Byron and CHase Elliott have more value than SVG in Cash Contests, because there are not many dominator points in Sunday’s race. I will have SVG in 50% of my Tournament Contest lineups and build the other 50% using a more balanced lineup with drivers with the upside to finish in the top-10 Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
Fading SHANE VAN GISBERGER is a dangerous move Sunday, but I think we can get away with it in our cash contest lineups. There simply are not that many dominator points available to give SVG significant value over the field. Some of the drivers could outscore him this week simply by finishing in the top-10.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron knows his way around road courses. He won at Watkins Glen in 2023 and then the No. 24 car went to Victory Lane last year at COTA. Byron finished 3rd (Charlotte Roval), 2nd (COTA) and 9th (Mexico) in his last three road course races. Byron also finished 8th last year in Chicago. Byron had the fastest car in practice until he wrecked. Now he starts in the back with a good chance to be the highest scoring driver in the field.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,500): It took Elliott a while, but he is starting to find his rhythm on the road course tracks in the Gen-7 car like he had in the previous car. Elliott finished 3rd (Mexico), 4th (COTA), 5th (Charlotte Roval) and 4th (Sonoma) in his last four road course races. Elliott finished 3rd on the streets of Chicago in 2023, so he proved he can get around this tight track. Elliott wrecked his car in practice so he will start in the back too. He has a good chance to score 20-25 place differential points and be one of the top scoring drivers in DFS Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($9,300): Gibbs got off to a slow start in 2025, but he is starting to heat up. Joe Gibbs Racing moved Chris Gabehart (Denny Hamlin’s old crew chief) to serve as an adviser to the No. 54 team. The race in Chicago is 30% skill, 30% speed, 30% strategy and 10% luck. Gibbs led the most laps in Chicago last year and that proved he has the skill and the speed to win Sunday. Adding Gabehart to the pit box should add to their strategy. I like Gibbs’ chances of finishing up front on the street course in Grant Park.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($8,300): McDowell has been one of the best drivers on the streets of Chicago and one of the most consistent drivers on the road courses in the Cup Series. McDowell has finished both races in Chicago in the top-to and he has an average finishing position of 7th in his last six road course races. The No. 71 car was the fastest on the long run in practice. McDowell is a serious threat to win Sunday.
DENNY HAMLIN ($7,100): I wasn’t planning on playing Hamlin Sunday and then his car blew up on lap one in practice. Now Hamlin will start dead last Sunday. Hamlin does not need to be great in this race. I just need him to finish inside the top-20 in order to score 44+ DK Points. That will be good enough for our Cash Contest lineup.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($5,700): What did I do? Did I forget to erase Stenhouse’s name from the Superspeedway race at Atlanta? I know people only think of Stenhouse as a driver to use on the drafting tracks, but he has been a boom or bust driver on the road courses too. Stenhouse started 33rd, finished 6th and scored 65 DK Points last year in this race. He will be in the winning lineup if he does it again. I am not going to have a lot of ownership with Stenhouse this week, but I cannot ignore what he did last year in this race.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
The drivers starting in the back (WILLIAM BYRON and CHASE ELLIOTT) are going to eat up a lot of ownership Sunday. I am going to fade the two Hendrick Motorsports cars and try to win with the drivers starting closer to the front.
SHANE VAN GISBERGEN ($12,000): SVG is priced $1,500 more than any driver in the field, but that is not enough to scare me away from him. He won the first street course race in Chicago and he was on his way to winning again last year until Chase Brisco took him out. SVG has an average finishing position of 4th in his last four road course races. He has also averaged 28 laps led in those races. I would not be surprised if SVG led nearly every lap Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,800): Reddick is one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series and he has been really good in Chicago. He was racing Shane van Gisbergen for the win in 2023 when Reddick lost control of his car on the wet track. He came back last year and finished 2nd. The No. 45 car looks fast again this weekend. Reddick posted the 9th fasted speed in practice and the No. 45 car qualified 4th for the race. $9,800 is too cheap to pass up with Reddick Sunday.
KYLE BUSCH ($7,700): Busch took the field to school when he led 42 of the 95 laps at COTA earlier this year. Busch has also had a lot of success on the streets in Chicago. The No. 8 car started 18th and finished 5th in 2023 and Busch started 19th and finished 9th last year. $7,700 is just too cheap for a driver who has never finished outside the top-10 in Chicago and dominated one of the road course races this year.
WILL BROWN ($7,300): Brown is the reigning Supercars Champion. You know; the series that Shane van Gisbergen dominated for a long time. Brown has only competed in one Cup Series race. He finished 31st at Sonoma last year. We saw SVG dominate this race last year and Joey Hand dominated a large part of the race last year. Could this be the year Brown runs up front? Brown’s skills should show up more on the street course than the hills in Sonoma. I will take a chance with this road course ace Sunday.
DENNY HAMLIN ($7,100): Most of the people will play William Byron or Chase Elliott from the back. I do not think Hamlin will have as much ownership as he should have. Hamlin starts last, so if he can simply stay out of trouble, he should be in the winning lineup in Chicago.
COLE CUSTER ($6,100): Custer in one of my favorite “punt plays” this weekend. He is a lot better on the road courses than what people think he is. Custer won the Xfinity Series race on the streets of Chicago in 2023. He also finished 8th a few weeks ago in Mexico. The No. 41 car continues to show some improvement, so I will take a chance with Custer Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
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