The NASCAR Cup Series will celebrate the 4th of July weekend just outside the Windy City, when they return to Chicagoland Speedway. This 1.5-mile, D-shaped, tri-oval track is worn out and it should provide multiple grooves to race it. We can expect fireworks Sunday night as the Cup Series drivers compete for the checkered flag. The eero 400 can be seen Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on TNT.
DFS STATS FOR CHICAGOLAND
We do not have any track history to work with since the Cup Series has not competed at Chicagoland Speedway since 2019 and the teams are racing a completely different car. There have been four races this year on 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks. The best way to handicap the eero 400 is to look at the results from the races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway. This should give us an idea of which drivers should run up front Sunday night.
Here are the stats from the races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year, sorted by DraftKings Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series has never raced the Gen-7 car at Chicagoland Speedway, so the teams were given some extra practice time Friday evening. Each team was allowed 50-minutes and three sets of tires to dial in their car for Sunday night’s race. The drivers who were fast on the long runs are the drivers we will want in our DFS lineups at Chicagoland Speedway.
Here are the lap times from Friday’s practice session at Chicagoland Speedway….
STRATEGY FOR CHICAGOLAND
The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps (400 miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.9 dominator points). I looked at the dominators from the three races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year with 267 laps (Las Vegas, Kansas and Texas) to see how the dominator points may play out Sunday night. I left out the race at Charlotte Motor Speedway since there were 400 laps in that race and it would skew the numbers.
The trend in the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks races this year is for one driver to lead 130 laps and score 48 fastest laps (54.1 dominator points). A second driver leads 90 laps and scores 44 fastest laps (42.8 dominator points). We are going to need these two dominators in our lineups Sunday night, so I plan to pay up for the two drivers who I think can lead the most laps this weekend. Denny Hamlin has been the top dominator in three of the four races on the intermediate tracks. Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson have been one of the top-two dominators in two of the four races this year.
WINNING LINEUPS AT INTERMEDIATE TRACKS (2026)
We do not have winning lineups from Chicagoland Speedway to look at this week, but we can look at the winning lineups from the four races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year. Denny Hamlin has been the highest priced driver, but you could not win without the No. 11 car on your team. Hamlin has been in every winning lineup on the intermediate tracks because he has led 361 laps in these races. Brad Keselowski has been the place differential king and he has shown up in three of the four winning lineups. Riley Herbst has been the best “punt play”. He was often one of the cheapest drivers in the field and he made an appearance in half of the winning lineups this year. Do not be afraid to spend most of the $50K salary cap. The average price of the winning lineups has been $49,900.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000) has been a beast this year on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks. He won at Las Vegas, finished 4th in Kansas, 2nd at Texas and 3rd at Charlotte. Hamlin also led a series-high 361 laps in these races. Hamlin has a great chance to be the top dominator and make another trip to Victory Lane Sunday night.
TYLER REDDICK ($10,700) had the fastest car on the long-run speeds charts, but the No. 45 car qualified 13th because Reddick went out early in qualifying before the track had a lot of speed. Reddick won on the most similar track to Chicagoland Speedway (Kansas Speedway). Reddick should have the speed to win again Sunday night.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,700) won the last race on a 1.5-mile, intermediate track (Charlotte Motor Speedway). Can he win again Sunday night? I doubt it, but the No. 7 car has enough speed to finish inside the top-15 Sunday night. I will take a chance with Suarez from the 26th starting spot this weekend.
COREY HEIM ($7,500) is back behind the wheel of the No. 67 car for 23XI Racing. He won the last Cup Series race he competed in. I doubt Heim can win back-to-back races, but he is almost a lock to move up 8-12 spots from his 28th-place starting position. That makes Heim one of the best value picks in the field Sunday night.
AUSTIN CINDRIC ($7,000) was not on my radar for this race until practice Friday. Cindric posted the second-fastest long-run speed in practice. Cindric said his team took the notes from the tire test that his teammate had (Ryan Blaney) and they tweaked them. Whatever the No. 2 team did; it worked. Cindric has a good chance to score some place differential points from the 23rd starting position at Chicagoland Speedway.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($6,100) will be my “punt play” in my Cash Contest lineup. The No. 71 failed inspection three times so McDowell was not allowed to make a qualifying lap and he will have to serve a pass-through penalty once the race starts. McDowell starts dead last. He should get his lap back that he will lose once he serves his penalty. I am not going to sweat the penalty for the No. 71 team. McDowell still has a chance to finish inside the top-20 from the 38th starting position.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($10,500) will be my pivot from the popular Denny Hamlin. Larson was only .001 seconds slower than Hamlin. Larson was also a bit faster than Hamlin in practice. If Larson can get the lead at the start of the race, it could be adios amigo to Hamlin. Larson is one of the best at searching the track for grip. He has a good chance to be the top scorer for your DraftKings Contest.
RYAN BLANEY ($10,200) will be my pivot from Tyler Reddick. I expect most of the lineups will have Denny Hamlin + Tyler Reddick. Larson + Blaney has just as much upside at a lower ownership. Larson and Blaney both tested at Chicagoland Speedway. I expect both drivers to finish up front.
BUBBA WALLACE ($8,500) has the upside to lead some laps and win the race. Wallace won the race at Kansas a few years ago, so he does have the talent to win on tracks similar to Chciagoland Speedway. Wallace posted the fifth-fastest long-run speed in practice and he qualified 8th for the race. I doubt Wallace will have significant ownership Sunday night.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,000) will be the key that can unlock this lineup. Keselowski has been in 3 of the 4 winning lineups on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year. He did that by score place differential points. Keselowski could do it this week by leading laps. He knows how to manage his tire wear as well as any driver in the field. Keselowski is usually really good whenever he qualifies up front. I am expecting Keselowski to be one of the most faded drivers who starts in the top-10. I will take my chances with a low owned Keselowski.
RYAN PREECE ($6,700) is another RFK Racing driver who I am interested in Sunday night. The two most similar tracks to Chicagoland Speedway are Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway. Preece finished 11th in the races at those two tracks. He had the 13th-fast long-run speed in practice, so Preece should be fast enough to compete for a top-10 finish this weekend.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($6,100) will be my “punt play” in my Tournament Contest lineup too. I hate having him in both lineups, but I really do not like any of the drivers who are priced below McDowell. He has a great chance to score 15+ Place Differential Points Sunday night, so I will play the No. 71 car Sunday night.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
Follow me on (X) Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook