The Cup Series will travel to Darlington Raceway this weekend to honor the drivers of the past with their throwback paint schemes. I wrote in the DFS article last week that I nearly took down the DFS Contest at Martinsville in 2024. The picks cashed last week too; but not as well as the 2024 lineup. There is nothing wrong with having a profit in a DFS Contest, so I will take it. The picks scored pretty well at Darlington last year too. I will do my best to get a return on our investment again this weekend. The Goodyear 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
DFS STATS FOR DARLINGTON
Darlington is a driver’s racetrack. This 1.366-mile, egg-shaped track will force the drivers to search for grip and run as close to the wall as possible, without getting a “Darlington Stripe.” Some drivers are better at this style of racing then others. The race two weeks ago required the same type of driving technique. We can handicap the Goodyear 400 by looking at the drivers with the best stats from the last six races at Darlington (Gen-7 car) and the race two weeks ago at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Here is the driver’s Average DraftKings Points in the last six races at Darlington Raceway and the race at Homestead-Miami Speedway this year …
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal schedule this weekend. The teams were broken up into two groups. Each group had 25-minutes to dial in their cars for the race. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. The speeds from practice did not translate into race speed last year at Darlington. Kyle Larson posted the 10th fastest speed, with the 19th fastest long-run speed last year. He then went out and led 263 laps. Chase Briscoe posted the 32nd fast speed in practice and he went to Victory Lane last year. Larson started 4th and Briscoe started 3rd. Track position means a lot more than practice speed at Darlington.
Here are the lap times from the practice sessions Saturday at Darlington Raceway…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
We typically get some long green-flag runs at Darlington. The spring race last year had four cautions (not including the Stage breaks) and the Southern 500 had five cautions. Almost all of these cautions happened in the final Stage when the drivers took more risk to get to the front.
The lack of cautions in the first two Stages has allowed the main dominator to lead roughly 174 laps and score 75 fastest laps (77.2 dominator points). There are more lead changes in the final Stage. Usually there are three more dominators who score roughly 20 dominator points each. We must have the main dominator in our lineup and pair him with two of the drivers who score 20 dominator points. I plan to play a “stars and scrubs” lineup this week to ensure I have the drivers who lead the most laps in my lineup.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
TYLER REDDICK ($10,200): Reddick is one of the best drivers at leading laps at Darlington. He led 174 laps in this race last year and he led 90 laps in the Southern 500 in 2023. Reddick is good at running up against the wall without getting too many “Darlington Stripes.” I need two dominators in my Cash Contest lineup. William Byron will obviously be one and Reddick will be the other.
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,900): We need a dominator in our Cash Contest lineup and the best choice is Byron. The spring race and the Southern 500 in September are completely different. The driver who starts on the pole in the spring has averaged 128 laps led in the Gen-7 car at Darlington. The driver who starts on the pole in September has aveged 48 laps led. Byron has a fast car. He should lead a lot of laps Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,600): I wanted to wait and see how Chastain looked in the Xfinity Series race before I selected him for the Cup Series race. Chastain looked like the best driver in the field Saturday and that should give him some momentum heading into Sunday’s race. Chastain started 22nd and finished 5th in the Southern 500 last year. Chastain starts 25th Sunday and he has the upside to finish in the top-10. I will play Chastain based on his place differential potential Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,000): Keselowski won this race last year by managing his tires over the long run. He did not have the best car in the race though. Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher took each other out at the end of the race and that opened the door for Keselowski to go to Victory Lane for the first time in a RFK Racing Ford. Keselowski has an average finishing position of 6.4 in his last five races at Darlington. He “should” be a good pick this weekend for a top-10 finish from the 20th starting position.
JOSH BERRY ($7,800): Berry has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season. We did not get much from the No. 21 cr with Harrison Burton behind the wheel. Now the Wood Brothers Ford looks like it did when a young Ryan Blaney was in the seat. I know I said practice does not matter, but it is hard to ignore the speed the No. 21 car had in practice (Berry was fastest on the 10-lap and 15-lap average speed chart). He started 33rd and finished 3rd in this race last year. Berry knows how to move through the field at Darlington.
TY DILLON ($5,000): I have been using Dillon a lot as a “punt play” this year and so far he has not let me down. Dillon started 25th and finished 16th at Phoenix. That was good enough for 36 DK Points. Dillon started 34th and finished 27th at Homestead. He scored 24 DK Points in that race. I used Dillon last week when he started 28th and finished 15th. Dillon scored 41 DK Points last week. He starts 29th Sunday. His average finishing position at Darlington in the Gen-7 car is 22nd. Dillon should be a good driver at the bottom of your lineup Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($9,900): Byron is not the first driver that comes to mind when people think about running the wall at Darlington, but he is pretty good. Byron won the spring race at Darlington in 2023 and he has the best average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at this track. Track position is everything at Darlington and Byron has it. He starts on the pole and he has the No. 1 pit stall. He also has the No. 2 ranked pit crew. That is a good combination for a win Sunday.
CHASE BRISCOE ($9,100): Briscoe won the Southern 500 at Darlington last year. He also finished 5th in the spring, throwback race. His No. 19 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing should be faster than the No. 14 Ford he had for Stewart-Haas Racing last year. Briscoe got off to a slow start, but he is starting to heat up. He finished 4th two weeks ago at Homestead. Briscoe should have a good chance to finish in the top-five again Sunday and his car has the speed to lead some laps.
BUBBA WALLACE ($8,300): You simply cannot fade Wallace right know. You could even make an argument that he is one of the best drivers in the Cup Series over the last two races. Wallace finished 3rd at Homestead two weeks ago and 3rd last week at Martinsville. Wallace has an average finishing position of 8th in the Gen-7 car at Darlington. He is the best value pick in DFS this week at $8,300. I would not be surprised if Wallace was one of the dominators Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,100): Buescher had a fast car last year at Darlington and he had a good chance to win the race. Buescher has finished three of the last four races at Darlington in the top-10. The No. 17 car looked fast Saturday, and Buescher has the track position to run up front. I will take a chance with the No. 17 car as a contrarian pick in my lineup.
ERIK JONES ($7,500): Darlington has been the best track for Jones and it is not even close. Jones won the Southern 500 at Darlington in 2019 and then again in 2022. His win in 2022 was in the Gen-7 car, while driving for Petty GMS Motorsports. Jones ran the wall and finished 15th two weeks ago at Homestead. “That Jones Boy” will have a good chance to finish inside the top-20 Sunday from the 34th starting position.
DANIEL SAUREZ ($7,100): Suarez has spent a lot of time running in the top-15 this year, but he doesn’t have the finishes to prove it. He did start 23rd and finished 2nd in Las Vegas. That was good enough for 71 DK Points. Suarez starts 30th Sunday. He should have a good chance to score 10-15 place differential points. I will take a chance with “My Amigo” Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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