NASCAR DFS Picks for Daytona – Fantasy Racing Tips

The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Daytona International Speedway this weekend to end their regular season. NASCAR moved the Daytona race for the 4^th of July weekend to the end of the regular season because they want to create chaos as the drivers battle for the final playoff spot. So far, the Coke Zero 400 has lived up to the hype. All three races in the Gen-7 car era in August at Daytona have been won by a driver who did not have a win sticker on their car. Could we see another first-time winner in Victory Lane Saturday night? History says the chances are very high. It should be fun to see how it all plays out. The Coke Zero 400 can be seen Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

DFS STATS FOR DAYTONA

The Coke Zero 400 is the toughest race to predict. The Daytona 500 typically has a driver from one of the top teams in Victory Lane, while the Coke Zero 400 typically has a first time winner holding the trophy. There is only one playoff spot left to be secured and we can expect the drivers without a win to do whatever it takes to earn that last playoff spot. That typically creates chaos and that is exactly what NASCAR wants. The win by Harrison Burton last year proved that anyone can win this race. It doesn’t hurt to look at the stats though to see which drivers have had the most success at Daytona.

I looked at the three races in August and the last two Daytona 500 races to help handicap the Coke Zero 400. I also added in the data from the last race at Atlanta and the race earlier this season at Talladega so that we have some of the driver’s stats on the Superspeedways this year in the model.

Here are the stats from the last five races at Daytona and the races at Atlanta and Talladega this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…

PRACTICE / QUALIFYING

NASCAR does not practice on the Superspeedway tracks, so the teams were scheduled to line up for qualifying Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, Mother Nature did not cooperate. There was too much lightning in the area, so qualifying was canceled. The starting lineup was set “per the rule book.” That will cause some good drivers to start in the back of the field Saturday night.

DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY

The race today is scheduled for 160 laps (400 Miles). That means there are 40 points available for leading laps and 72 points available for fastest laps (112 dominator points). The laps led tend to get spread out in this race and the drivers who start in the back typically score most of the fastest laps because they get an assist from the draft. It is more important to focus on place differential points than it is to stack dominators in your lineup tonight.

My strategy for the race Saturday night is to select the drivers who have the best chance to score some place differential points and finish in the top-12. The best way to do this in the past has been to select drivers who start outside the top-20. The racing has changed at Daytona. The drivers typically ride around for the first two Stages saving fuel. The action picks up in the final Stage. The strategy of riding around and saving fuel has reduced the number of cautions in the race. This means we can select one and maybe two drivers who start inside the top-20, but most of our picks still need to come from the drivers who start in the back of the pack.

DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)