The Cup Series will travel to Dover Motor Speedway this weekend to try and slay Miles the Monster. This race was moved from its traditional spot in May on the NASCAR schedule to a race in mid July. The track is going to be hotter and slicker and that should make the cars tougher to drive at what is already one of the toughest tracks on the circuit. Buckle up… We may be in for a wild race at the Monster Mile this weekend. The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on TNT.
DFS STATS FOR DOVER
Dover is a one-mile, high-banked, concrete track. Most drivers say that Dover is a larger version of Bristol Motor Speedway. The Monster Mile is also like Nashville Superspeedway. Both tracks have concrete surfaces and they are similar in size. I used the stats from the last three races at Dover and combined it with the stats from the races on the concrete at Bristol and Nashville this year to handicap the race Sunday. I will use these stats and the practice speed to pick the drivers for the race at Dover.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Dover Motor Speedway and the races at Bristol and Nashville this year, sorted by DraftKings Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
Qualifying was rained out. The field was set “per the metrics” from the stats at Sonoma last week. This means there are some good drivers starting deep in the field and some not-so-good drivers starting up front. Goodyear is bringing a new tire to the track and the teams have no clue how the concrete will take rubber during the race. Dover went from being one of the easiest races to predict, to one of the hardest since practice was rained out. I am simply going to trust the stats from the previous races at Dover and the tracks similar to Dover this week. That is all we have to work with.
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Dover is scheduled for 400 laps (400 miles). That means there are 100 points available for leading laps and 180 points available for fastest laps (280 dominator points). The trend in the last three races at Dover is for one driver to lead 144 laps and score 58 fastest laps (62.1 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 84 laps and scores 48 fastest laps (42.6 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 62 laps and scores 24 fastest laps (26.3 dominator points). The final dominator leads roughly 44 laps and scores 54 fastest laps (35.3 dominator points). There are a lot of dominator points up for grabs Sunday. We need to score as many of these points as possible. I plan to pay up for at least three dominators Sunday. It will not matter what the rest of the lineup does if we are able to have the top-three dominators in our lineup and the 140 dominator points that they are projected to score.
There are a lot of good drivers starting in the back (Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain and Carson Hocevar). I plan to build some lineups like a Superspeedway where I load my lineup with the drivers starting from the back with at least one dominator who starts up front. This strategy should work for Cash Contests.
Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Kyle Busch have been top-three dominators in two of the three races at Dover in the Gen-7 car.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
KYLE LARSON ($11,500): Can we trust Larson this Sunday. His average finishing position since Memorial Day is 20th. Most of those races have been on road courses, the Superspeedway in Atlanta and the Tricky Triangle in Pocono. Larson destroyed the field on the concrete at Bristol. He starts 25th Sunday so Larson has a chance to score a lot of place differential points. He is going to be really popular, so I like Larson more for Cash Contests than Tournament Contests at Dover.
RYAN BLANEY ($10,700): It is almost the end of July and we are still waiting for Blaney’s luck to turn around. The No. 12 car has been fast in almost all of the oval track races, but Blaney has little to show for it.. Blaney finished 3rd and 7th in his last two races at Dover. He starts 31st Sunday because of his wreck at Sonoma. Blaney is a lock for all Cash Contest lineups and it will be tough to fade him in Tournament Contest too.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,000): Dover has been a good track for Elliott. He won the race in the Gen-7 car at Dover in 2022 and he finished 5th last year. Elliott also finished 2nd this year on the concrete at Bristol. Elliott starts on the pole and has the No. 1 pit stall. It is tough to pass the leader at Dover, so I expect Elliott to lead a lot of laps in Stage 1. He will be my dominator for the Cash Contest lineup.
ERIK JONES ($6,300): Jones has been a sneaky good driver at Dover in the Gen-7 car. He finished 10th at the Monster Mile in 2022 and 16th in 2023 (He was injured and did not compete in the race last year). The No. 43 team has been better this year than they have been in the past. Jones is a good value pick for your DFS lineup Sunday.
JOHN H. NEMECHEK ($5,700): Nemechek is still alive in the Bracket Challenge. That has to mean something, right? I million dollars is on the line, so I expect the No. 42 team to do whatever it takes to finish up front Sunday. Nemechek has had a history of popping up inside the top-15 (that is why he is still alive in the tournament). I will play him Sunday and hope his luck continues at Dover.
ZANE SMITH ($5,600): Smith has been a tough driver to trust in DFS lineups, but he has been OK on the concrete tracks. Smith started 27th and finished 13th last month at Nashville. He started 37th and finished 24th at Dover last year. That does not sound great, but it was good enough for 31.9 DK Points. Smith has been better this year, so I expect more than 32 DK Points from him Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): Hamlin would have had a good chance of starting up front if qualifying wasn’t rained out. He has been the best driver at Dover in the Gen-7 car. Hamlin led 136 laps and won at Dover last year. He also finished 5th in 2023. If that is not enough…. Hamlin finished 2nd on the concrete at Bristol and 3rd on the concrete in Nashville. Hamlin has a good chance of being one of the dominators and finishing up front at the Monster Mile.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,000): Can Elliott keep his track position Sunday? He better, because I have him in both lineups. Elliott has the second-best average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Dover. He also has the fourth-best Driver Rating. The chances of Elliott being one of the dominators Sunday are high, so I will use him in my Tournament Contest lineup too.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,800): Dover Motor Speedway is a good track for Hendrick Motorsports. All of their drivers run well at the Monster Mile and that includes Bowman. He won the race at Dover in 2021, finished 5th in 2022 and 8th last year (Bowman did not compete in the race in 2023 because of a back injury). Bowman is pretty good at managing his tires on a hot, slick track. The No. 48 car has a good chance to score place differential points and finish in the top-10 Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($7,400): I have been using Gibbs a lot over the last two months in my DFS lineups and so far he has not let me down. I will go back to the No. 54 car Sunday. Gibbs finished 10th and 13th in his two Cup Series races at Dover. Gibbs also looked good earlier this season on the concrete at Bristol. He started 6th and finished 3rd. Gibbs has not won a race yet, so the No. 54 team will do whatever it takes to get Gibbs into Victory Lane Sunday. He could win $1M if Gibbs wins, since he is still alive in the Brackett Challenge.
CARSON HOCEVAR ($7,700): Could this be the race when Hocevar puts it all together and finds Victory Lane? Hocevar finished 2nd on the concrete in Nashville and 11th on the concrete in Bristol. Hocevar always qualifies well on the oval tracks and he often runs up front in the races. Finding the checkered flag has been a problem for the No. 77 team. Hocevar starts 33rd Sunday, so there is little risk in using him Sunday.
COLE CUSTER ($5,100): I am going to roll the dice with Custer Sunday. He won the Xfinity Series race at the Monster Mile last year. Noah Gragson finished 5th for Stewart-Haas Racing at Dover last year, so why can’t Custer finish in the top-15? I doubt anyone will use Custer, so I will take a chance with him.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
Follow me on (X) Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook