The Cup Series will travel to Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend for the Brickyard 400. This is one of the biggest races of the season so we can expect each team to have their best cars polished up and ready to go Sunday. Drivers who want to get into the NASCAR Hall of Fame often need to have a win at this track on their resume. The race at Indy was crazy last year and we can expect the same this weekend. The Brickyard 400 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on TNT (This is the last race on TNT. The Cup Series races will move to the USA Network next week)
DFS STATS FOR INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a 2.5-mile, flat track. It races similar to Pocono Raceway. Goodyear is using the same tire that was used at the Brickyard last year and it was also used at Pocono last month. The best way to handicap the race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is to look at the stats from last year’s race and the stats from the race at Pocono earlier this year. The drivers who ran up front in both races, should have some speed this weekend.
Here are the stats from the last year’s races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the race earlier this year at Pocono Raceway, sorted by DFS Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series teams were scheduled to have a 50-minute practice session Friday, but Mother Nature did not cooperate. The practice was moved to Saturday and it was shortened to a 25-minute practice session. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a 2.5-mile track and it takes 50 seconds to turn a lap at the Brickyard, but many of the teams were able to make a long run in practice. I will be focusing the picks on the 10-lap average speed and the driver’s results at Indianapolis last year and Pocono last month.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice at Indianapolis Motor Speedway…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Dover is scheduled for 160 laps (400 miles). That means there are 40 points available for leading laps and 72 points available for fastest laps (112 dominator points). We only have one race of data to work with to predict the dominators for Sunday’s race. The draft comes into play at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so that is the reason why we had five dominators in the race last year. Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin and John H. Nemecheck all led over 15 laps in the race. The drivers in the middle of the pack typically score most of the fastest laps because they get an assist from the draft. The five dominators all average between 10 and 13 dominator points. That is not many dominator points to chase because the drivers who start in the back and finish up front score more DFS Points because of their place differential points. I plan to focus on the drivers finishing points Sunday and hopefully I will run into some dominator and place differential points on the way to their top-10 finishes.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): Hamlin clearly had the best car in practice and he dominates the stat-sheet on the large, flat tracks. Hamlin would have easily won the pole, but he hit the wall in qualifying. The Joe Gibbs Racing cars all look fast, so the No. 11 back-up car should have a lot of speed too. Hamlin can easily use pit strategy to flip track position. Once he gets to the front, it will be hard to take the track position away from him. Hamlin is a lock for all Cash Contest lineups Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($10,000): Elliott enters the race at the Brickyard after one of his best races in a long time at Dover. The No. 9 team has been good on the large, flat tracks. Elliott finished 5th last month at Pocono and he finished his last three races in Indianapolis in the top-11. Elliott got into the wall in qualifying so now he starts 30th. Elliott has a good chance to score 20+ place differential points and be one of the top-five drivers in DraftKings Contests.
CHASE BRISCOE ($9,300): This is a home race for Briscoe and I would not be surprised if the No. 19 car was in Victory Lane Sunday. Briscoe is on a hot streak right now. He finished 2nd at Sonoma two weeks ago and 2nd last week at Dover. He also won the race at Pocono last month. I am not worried about the stats for Briscoe at Indianapolis. There is a big difference in speed between Start-Haas Racing (his old team) and Joe Gibbs Racing (his current team). Briscoe will be my dominator for the Cash Contest lineup in Indianapolis.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,400): Keselowski hasn’t been great this year, but he has been good at the large intermediate tracks where the draft comes into play. Keselowski finished 10th at his home track in Michigan and 9th at Pocono. He has also finished three of the last five races at the Brickyard in the top-four. That includes a win in 2018. Keselowski needs a win in order to make the playoffs. The No. 6 team will be aggressive with their pit strategy to get Keselowski in Victory Lane to secure his playoff spot.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($5,700): The draft comes into play at the Brickyard so it should be no surprise to see Stenhouse in the top-12. He started 9th, scored Stage Points in both Stages and finished 11th in the Brickyard 400 last year. Stenhouse posted the 16th fastest speed in practice and he had the 15th-fastest long run speed. Stenhouse should be able to score some place differential points from his 32nd starting position.
TY DILLON ($5,500): Dillon has a lot to race for Sunday. He is in the finals of the Brackett Challenge, so he will earn $1M if he can finish in front of Ty Gibbs. I am sure the No. 10 team will do everything they can to get Dillon some track position Sunday and win the cash. Dillon is a good pick for $5,500 Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): I just cannot fade Hamlin when he starts dead last. I know he is going to be the highest owned driver in the field and the easiest path to the top of the contest is to fade Hamlin and hope he finishes outside the top-30. I think his chances of finishing inside the top-five are high. All Hamlin has to do is finish inside the top-12 and he should be the highest scoring driver in DraftKings Contests.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($9,500): Bell had a good race at the Brickyard last year and he should be a good pick again Sunday. Bell qualified 18th and finished 4th in Indianapolis last year. Everyone is talking about the speed that the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have, but few people are including Bell in that conversation. I will take a chance with a lower owned Bell Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($8,800): It has been a while since we have seen the No. 22 car finish in the top-five. That could change Sunday. The schedule in June and July did not favor Logano. He is not very good on the road courses and he crashed in Atlanta. Logano has been good at the Brickyard though. Logano finished seven of his last nine races at the Brickyard in the top-10. That is a large sample size with a lot of success. Roger Penske owns Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so this is an important race for Team Penske. I expect Logano to have a good chance of finishing up front Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,400): I probably like Keselowski more for this race than other people. Indianapolis is a drafting track where strategy comes into play. Keselowski is good in the draft and his team likes to gamble to get track position. That is what the No. 6 team did last year and Keselowski would have won the Brickyard 400 but his car ran out of gas in overtime. He just needs some better luck for this to work out well Sunday.
JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK ($6,200): Nemechek may have the best car in the field. Nemechek posted the 2nd fastest speed in practice. He was also fastest on the 5-lap, 10-lap and 15-lap average speed charts. Nemechek had a good chance to win the pole but he got into the wall during qualifying. Nemechek should score a lot of place differential points if they can fix the car and keep the speed it had. Nemechek finished 6th at Pocono last month. The No. 42 car should be one of the best value picks Sunday.
ZANE SMITH ($5,900): Smith could be the best “punt play” for your DraftKings lineup. He posted the 5th fastest speed in practice. He got loose in qualifying and now Smith will start 27th Sunday. Smith started 27th and finished 17th at Indianapolis last year. That was good enough for 37.4 DraftKings Points. He will be a great pick if Smith can do that again Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
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