The Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway this week for another race on a 1.5-mile intermediate track. Kansas produced two of the best races on the schedule last year. So, NASCAR is going to have more races on tracks like Kansas, right? Do not underestimate the stupidity of the people who run this sport. Kansas has an aging surface (that is why the races are so good), so NASCAR is talking about reconfiguring the track to make it more like Atlanta (Just what we need… another Superspeedway track). I really hope these plans are just rumors, because Kansas is one of the only tracks on the schedule that keeps fans glued to their television sets. (Sorry for the rant, but this is my home track and I do not want it destroyed). The AdventHealth 400 is scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
DFS STATS FOR KANSAS
So, how do we handicap the race at Kansas Speedway? The drivers who ran well at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March, typically run well at Kansas in May. I will use the stats from Las Vegas; add in some of the stats from the race last week at Texas and the last four races at Kansas to predict which drivers will run up front Sunday.
Here are the stats from the races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the race last week at Texas and the last four races at Kansas Speedway, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had their normal practice schedule Saturday. The teams were broken up into two groups and each group had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice.
So, how did the practice speeds translate into race speed last year at Kansas Speedway? Only three of the drivers who posted top-10 speed in practice, finished the race in the top-10. The 10-lap average speed chart was a better prediction for the race. Kyle Larson posted the second-best 10-lap average speed and he won the race. Denny Hamlin had the fourth-best speed on the 10-lap average speed chart and he won finished fifth. Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott had top-10 speed on the long-runs in practice and they finished in the top-10 too. The drivers who had the best long-run speed in practice should be the drivers with the fastest cars in Sunday’s race.
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Kansas Speedway….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps (400.5 miles). That means there are 66.7 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.85 dominator points). The trend in the Cup Series at Kansas Speedway is for one driver to lead roughly 74 laps and score 22 fastest laps (28.4 dominator points). Another driver leads roughly 64 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (24.6 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 50 laps and scores 18 fastest laps (20.6 dominator points). The last dominator leads roughly 48 laps and scores 12 fastest laps (17.4 dominator points). I want as many of these dominators as possible in my lineup Sunday. I plan to pay up for these drivers, even if it means I will have to build some “stars and scrubs lineups” for Sunday’s race.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($11,000): Larson has had no problem dominating the races on the 1.5-mile tracks. He has not been able to find Victory Lane as much as he should have in these races. Larson won at Homestead-Miami Speedway, finished 9th at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and 4th at Texas Motor Speedway last week. He led the most laps at Las Vegas and Texas. Larson also led the most laps in two of the last four races at Kansas Speedway. He finished three of his last four races in the Heartland in the top-four. I will play my Cash Contest lineup as one of those races were Larson completely destroys the field and pair him with drivers who can score place differential points.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,700): Chastain finished second last week in Texas and he did not even have a top-10 car. Kansas Speedway is one of the best tracks for Chastain. He won the last race at Kansas Speedway, finished 5th in 2023 and 7th in both races in 2022. Chastain posted the 11thfastest speed on the long runs in practice. The No. 1 car scraped the wall in qualifying so Chastain starts 26th Sunday. He has a good chance to score 10-16 place differential points at his best track.
KYLE BUSCH ($8,300): The No. 8 car had a lot of speed last week at Texas and Richard Childress Racing brought another fast car to the track this weekend. Busch posted the 14th-fastest speed on the long runs in practice. Busch overdrove the car in qualifying and he scraped the wall. Now Rowdy will start 35th Sunday. Busch should score a lot of place differential points at Kansas.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,800): Bowman has been Mr. Consistency at the 1.5-mile tracks. He finished 8 consecutive races on the 1.5-mile, cookie cutter tracks in the top-10, before his 35th-place finish last week in Texas. I look for Bowman to bounce back at Kansas. He has finished 6th, 7th, 10th, 4th and 9th in his five races at Kansas Speedway in the Gen-7 car. That is third-best in the Cup Series at Kansas. Bowman has a lot more speed than his 21st qualifying position. He should finish in the top-10 Sunday.
JOSH BERRY ($7,200): You can easily make an argument that Berry has been the best driver on the 1.5-mile, cookie cutter tracks this year. He won the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and he dominated a portion of the race last week at Texas Motor Speedway. Berry posted the seventh-fastest speed on the long runs in practice. Berry scraped the wall in qualifying, so now he starts dead last. Berry should score the most place differential points Sunday.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($7,000): It is tough to trust Keselowski right now. He has been dog shit all season. But it is also hard to fade the No. 6 car when Keselowski starts 36th. The No. 6 car posted the sixth-fastest long run speed in practice. Keselowski has a car fast enough to move inside the top-20 Sunday. There really is no risk in playing Keselowski from the back.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($11,000) / JOSH BERRY ($7,200): I will be stacking Larson with Berry in most of my lineups Sunday. There is a great chance that Larson leads the most laps and wins the race and there is also a great chance that Berry will score the most place differential points and be a top-five driver in your DFS Contests.
TY GIBBS ($7,700): Gibbs started off slow this season, but he has heated up over the last month. He finished 23rd last week at Texas, but those stats are misleading. Gibbs had a top-10 car for most of the race. He also scored 14 Stage Points and finished 5th in the last race at Kansas Speedway. The No. 54 car posted the fastest speed in practice and qualified sixth for the race. I will take another shot with Gibbs Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,800): Bowman is one of my favorite plays at Kansas. He has been one of the most consistent drivers on the 1.5-mile tracks. The only reason he is starting 21st is because Bowman went out early in qualifying and the track did not have much grip. The No. 48 car has a good chance to finish inside the top-10 Sunday.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($6,000): I wrote in my notes, “Play Stenhouse in the spring at Kansas Speedway.” For some reason, Stenhouse scores well in the spring and he hardly shows up in the fall. Stenhouse started 36th and finished 8th in 2022, started 33rd and finished 12th in 2023 and he started 21st and finished 16th last year (all of those are spring race). Stenhouse starts 27th Sunday. He should be a good contrarian pick for your Tournament Contest lineup.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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