The NASCAR Cup Series takes their show to Mexico City this weekend for the first points-paying outside the United States in the modern era. I really expected the field to be packed with road course ringers who would be trying to pull the one-off on a track that the Cup Series regulars are not familiar with, the same way Shane van Gisbergen did in the inaugural race on the streets in Chicago. That didn’t happen, but there is enough talent in the Cup Series to put on a good show in Mexico. The Viva Mexico 250 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
DFS STATS FOR MEXICO
Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez (Rodriguez Brothers Racetrack) is a new track for the Cup Series. This track is not too technical, so it should not take the Cup Series drivers very long to figure it out. The drivers who typically finish up front on the road courses should be the drivers running up front Sunday. I will use the stats from the road course races using the Gen-7 car (not including the Charlotte Roval or Indy Roval) to handicap the Viva Mexico 250.
Here are the driver’s stats on the road courses using the Gen-7 car, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR gave the teams plenty of track time to figure out this 2.417-mile, flat road course. The best way to handicap the race Sunday is to look at the lap speeds from final practice Friday. The drivers who are at the top of the speed chart, qualified up front and have a history of running well on the road course will be the drivers to beat Sunday. This is how it is at most of the road courses and we do not need to make the first race in Mexico any more complicated.
Here are the lap times from Friday’s final practice session in Mexico….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 100 laps (242 miles). That means there are 25 points available for leading laps and 45 points available for fastest laps (70 dominator points). It is tough to pass the leader with the Gen-7 car. The main dominator typically leads 42% of the laps and scores 16% of the fastest laps (17.7 dominator points). A second dominator typically leads 24% of the laps and scores 12% of the fastest laps (11.4 dominator points). That is not a lot of dominator points to chase this week. I plan to focus my picks on finishing position for the race in Mexico.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
SHANE VAN GISBERGEN ($10,500): There is no doubt that SVG is the best road course driver in the field, but is he the best driver for your DFS lineup? SVG has averaged the 17th-most DFS points on the road courses in the Gen-7 car. This has more to do with bad luck in a couple of races than it has to do with poor performance. SVG has a decent chance to blow away the field Sunday, so I will pay up for the Kiwi in Mexico.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,200): Bell won the race at COTA last year and he is quickly becoming one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series. Bell got some extra seat time in practice Friday and Saturday since he competed in the Xfinity Series race Saturday. This extra seat time should make Bell even tougher to beat Sunday. Bell posted the fastest speed on the long-runs in final practice. He has a great chance to be the highest-scoring driver in the field from the 31st starting position.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($7,800): Buescher will be my highest owned driver Sunday. It is not because I think the No. 17 car is the best in the field, or because I think Buescher has the best chance to win the race. It is because Buescher is so consistent at finishing in the top-10 on the road courses. His price is simply too cheap to pass up for the race in Mexico.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($8,200): McDowell has had a lot of success at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. I know it was a long time ago (2004 and 2005), but at least he has raced here before. McDowell looked awesome in practice and he sounded very confident in his interviews. The No. 71 car has the speed and McDowell has the talent to win the race Sunday. His price is just too cheap to pass up for the race in Mexico.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,700): Bowman said that he felt fine after practice yesterday. Bowman has really improved as a road course racer. He won the Chicago Street Course race last year and he finished 9th at COTA earlier this season. Bowman should score a lot of place differential points Sunday if he is healthy. I will take a chance with him for $7,700.
TY DILLON ($5,000): I have using Dillon a lot this year as my “punt play” in DFS and so far he has not let me down. Dillon has averaged the 27.62 DK Points on the road courses in the Gen-7 car. That is pretty good for $5K. Dillon starts 28th Sunday, so he should score some place differential points and be a good pick at the bottom of your DFS lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* I want six drivers who can finish in the top-10 and this lineup has it…
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,500): Elliott used to be the driver to beat in the Cup Series before the Gen-7 car was introduced. It looks like NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver is starting to figure out the Gen-7 car on the road courses. Elliott finished three of his last four road course races in the top-five. The No. 9 car has some speed once again this weekend. Elliott only posted the 12th-fastest speed in practice but he did say he love the direction the car was going with the changes the No. 9 team made. This is a good race to take a chance with Elliott in your DFS lineups.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($8,600): This is going to be a big race for Suarez in his home country. All of the fans will be cheering for him. Suarez competed in the Xfinity Series race Saturday so that means he got an extra 130-minutes of practice and an extra 65 laps to get his rhythm down at this track. Suarez won the Gen-7 car race at Sonoma in 2022, so he proved he can run well in the Cup Series on the road course. Suarez looked fast in practice so I will take a chance with My Amigo in Mexico.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,400): The safest pick in the field this week may be Buescher. He has some momentum after his 2nd-place finish last week. Buescher leads the Cup Series with an average finishing position of 7.9 in the Gen-7 car on the road courses. The No. 17 car looks fast again this weekend and Buescher has the talent to keep the car up front. Buescher has averaged the most DFS Points on the road courses in the Gen-7 car so I will have him in a lot of my lineups Sunday.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($8,200): McDowell will be in both of my lineups this week. He would be my pick to win if Shane van Gisbergen wasn’t in the field. McDowell seems to be very confident this week. That last time I seen him this happy about his car was when he smoked the field on the Indy Road Course in 2023.
TY GIBBS ($7,400): I took a chance with Gibbs last week (despite a lot of people telling me it was too risky of a pick) and he finished 3rd. Am I messing with fire by going back to Gibbs for another race? Maybe. Gibbs competed in the Xfinity Series race Saturday some extra of practice time Saturday and an additional 65 laps to figure out Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. The No. 54 car looked like the fastest car in practice and Gibbs qualified 4th for the race. I’m a glutton for punishment, so I will press my luck with Gibbs Sunday.
CHASE BRISCOE ($7,900): Briscoe has looked awesome in practice and qualifying over the last month, but he hasn’t been able to finish up front like he should have. The No. 19 car looks fast again this weekend. Briscoe posted the 2nd-fast speed in the first practice and then the No. 19 team decided to only make a few short runs in the second practice because they already used up their tires. Briscoe starts 19th Sunday. He has the speed to finish in the top-10. He just needs some better luck then he has been having in these races.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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