The NASCAR Cup Series travels to the Irish Hills of Michigan this week for another race at an intermediate track. This will be the fifth consecutive points race for the Cup Series at an intermediate track (Texas, Kansas, Charlotte and Nashville are the other four). Michigan is not like the other tracks though. The speeds are much higher at Michigan and the draft comes into play on the front and back-stretches. That makes this race more unpredictable and a bit like a Superspeedway race. It should be fun to see how it all plays out at the last two-mile oval track on the schedule. The FireKeepers Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
DFS STATS FOR MICHIGAN
Michigan is a high-speed track. The racing surface is smooth and the tires do not wear-out much. Goodyear brought the same right-side tire that was used at Michigan last year, but the left-side tire will be different. It will be the same tire that was used at Daytona, Talladega and Charlotte. I doubt this tire will wear out any faster, so we can expect a lot of two-tire stops Sunday.
So, how do we handicap the FireKeepers Casino 400? Most of the teams say that Michigan is a combination of Atlanta and Kansas. The drivers run wide-open around those tracks, just like they will this weekend at Michigan. I will use the stats from all of the intermediate tracks and combine it with the stats from the three races in the Gen-7 car at Michigan. I will use the stats from Kansas as a tie-breaker, if I cannot decide between two drivers for my DFS lineups.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Michigan International Speedway and the races on the intermediate tracks this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR had their normal schedule Saturday morning at Michigan International Speedway. The teams were separated into two groups and they had 25-minutes to shake down their cars for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan is a two-mile oval track, so some teams decided to make short runs and work on their cars, instead of making a long run in the race.
So, how do the practice speeds at Michigan translate into race speed last year? Tyler Reddick posted the fourth-fastest long-run speed in practice and he won the race. Kyle Larson posted the second-fastest long-run speed in practice and he led the most laps. William Byron posted the third-fastest long run speed in practice and he finished second. Chris Buescher posted the sixth-fastest long-run speed in practice and he finished sixth. It looks like the drivers who stayed out in practice last year must have really liked their cars because most of them finished up front in the race.
Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Michigan International Speedway….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 200 laps (400 miles). That means there are 50 points available for leading laps and 90 points available for fastest laps (140 dominator points). The draft comes into play a bit at Michigan International Speedway and this causes the laps led to get spread throughout the field. Five drivers typically lead between 20-40 laps in the race. The fastest laps are typically scored by the drivers running in the middle of the pack. The main dominators in the three Gen-7 car races at Michigan have scored between 13-16 dominator points. It would be good to have those bonus points in our lineup, but we can find a few drivers who can score 12-15 place differential points too. I plan to have one dominator in my lineup and try to hit on the drivers who can score some place differential points and finish in the top-10.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,700): I will use Hamlin as my dominator in the Cash Contest lineups. We are going to see a lot of lead changes, so the dominator points should get spread out Sunday. Hamlin said his car is really good in race trim. He could be tough to pass once he gets the lead in Michigan.
RYAN BLANEY ($10,500): Michigan International Speedway is one of the fastest tracks on the schedule. The drivers need a fast car in order to win this race. Speed has not been a problem for the No. 12 team. Blaney has been the fastest driver in most of the races this year and the No. 12 car has a lot of speed again this weekend. The Fords have won 7 of the last 9 races in Michigan. Blaney will have a good chance to make it 8 Fords in Victory Lane in the last 10 races at Michigan.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,200): Logano has had some fast cars and some bad luck in Michigan in the Gen-7 car. He is tied with Kyle Larson for the most wins at Michigan International Speedway with 3. He looked slow in practice but they asked Logano about his speed and he said, “The race tomorrow will be hotter and slicker. We dialed a lot of handling into our car and took out some speed.” Logano knows how to grind out top-five finishes at tracks like Michigan, so he should be a good pick from the 15th starting position.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($7,500): I must be a glutton for punishment because I am playing Keselowski in both lineups. He sounded really happy with his car after practice and his results at Michigan are top-five in the Cup Series. I just need Keselowski to run like he always does in Michigan and this pick should work out well.
AUSTIN DILLON ($6,300): I had a hard time deciding if I should use Michael McDowell or Austin Dillon in this spot. Both cars had similar speed in practice, but Dillon has better stats at Michigan. Dillon finished 13th, 19th and 17th in his three races at Michigan International Speedway in the Gen-7 car. He will score well from the 28th starting position if Dillon car finish inside the top-20 Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,700): I played Gilliland as my “punt play” last week and he rewarded me with 33 DK Points. Gilliland has been one of the best cheap plays in DFS over the last month. He is averaging 43.5 DK Points in his last four points races. His stats at Michigan are not very good, but he is on a hot streak right now. I will take a chance with Gilliland for only $5,700 Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,700): Hamlin had a great chance to win the last two races on the schedule (Charlotte and Nashville) and he should have a good chance to win Sunday at Michigan International Speedway. Hamlin finished 2nd, 6th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd, 3rd and 9th in his last seven races in Michigan. That is a large sample size with a lot of positive results. Hamlin is on a hot streak right now and Michigan is one of his best tracks. The No. 11 car has a great chance to lead some laps and finish in the top-five at Michigan.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron came inches away from winning last year at Michigan International Speedway. Byron just dominated the last large intermediate track race when he led 283 laps at Charlotte. The No. 24 car looks like they brought similar speed to the track again this weekend. Byron should lead some laps and have a good chance to finish up front Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($7,800): The price for Buescher is ridiculous this week. Michigan is the best track for Buescher. He won this race in 2023 and Buescher finished 6th last year in Michigan. Buescher has the third-best average finishing position and he led the second-most laps in the Gen-7 car in Michigan. The stats suggest Buescher should be priced over $10K. I will take a chance with Buescher at his best track.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($7,500): So, we get the fourth-best driver in the Gen-7 car at Michigan for only $7,500? I will take it. Keselowski finished 4th at Michigan International Speedway in 2023 and then he proved it was not a fluke when he finished 5th last year. This is the best track for Keselowski and he desperately wants to win at home before he retires. Keselowski is simply too cheap to pass up Sunday.
RYAN PREECE ($7,000): Michigan International Speedway is an important track for RFK Racing. It is the home track for Brad Keselowski and his cars typically run well in this race. Preece finished 7th in Kansas and 9th in Charlotte. The No. 60 car has had a lot of speed on the intermediate tracks and the cars looks fast again this weekend. $7K seems to be a good price for a driver with the results that Preece has on the intermediate tracks this year.
TY GIBBS ($6,900): We are still waiting for Gibbs to reach Victory Lane in the Cup Series. Could this be the week when it finally happens? Gibbs finished 10th at Michigan in 2022, 11th in 2023 and 3rd last year. The No. 54 car posted the fastest speed on all of the long-run speed charts in practice. We typically do not get a Joe Gibbs Racing car for under $7K. Gibbs has the speed to be a dominator Sunday from the 8th starting position.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
Follow me on (X) Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook